Not just the issue of development but also caste and other configurations have come into play in the lok Sabha election
With the lok Sabha poll almost coming to an end, political parties have already started looking ahead to a post-poll scenario. While the general expectation is that there is unlikely to be a decisive verdict, the track record shows that there could also be some surprises. In 2004, the ‘India Shining’ ad blitz adopted by the BJP created an impression backed by several poll surveys that it was coming back to power. But even to the surprise of the Congress, the UPA came to power. In 2009 too, the expectation was that the NDA might come back to power ,but to the surprise of all the UPA2 formed the Government. Now the hype is that Mr Narendra Modi-led BJP will form the Government at the Centre.
The poll predictions so far have also been that the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party. Therefore, it stands to reason that it should look for allies to make up the magic number of 272. Strangely, as the election is coming to a close, the political discourse has reached a new low with negative and personalised campaign adopted by not only the BJP and the Congress but also by the regional players, showing desperation on their part.
Of late, perhaps buoyed by reports of a BJP swell, Mr Modi has launched sharp attacks against regional satraps taking them on in their own turf. The BJP’s initial reluctance to attack them had been attributed to the calculation that it would not like to shut the option of post-poll deals. Perhaps Mr Modi is being over confident that the BJP may not need the allies and the Modi magic will work on its own.
For instance, Mr Modi has targeted the DMK and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu after the BJP had formed a five-party alliance consisting of smaller parties like the PMK, MDMK, DMDK and others. The BJP itself does not have a base in the State. The AIADMK and the DMK have their committed votes while the Congress has hardly four per cent vote share. While it was expected that the AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa would come to the rescue of the BJP in the post-poll scenario, she has declared her own ambition of becoming the prime ministerial candidate in case of a hung Parliament.
Mr Modi’s decision to turn up the heat seems to flow from the assessment that the BJP might be able to pick up a few seats in Odisha and West Bengal where the party has been weak. last month, he singled out Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik for some tongue-lashing. While the BJD had been an NDA partner earlier, since they parted ways Mr Patnaik has made it his mission to finish the BJP in the State. Now the BJP thinks that it can get a few seats riding on the Modi wave.
With West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Mr Modi is having a running battle in the past few weeks as compared to his earlier “Didi for Bengal and Modi for Delhi” statements. His accommodative tone has now evaporated. Mr Modi has provoked Ms Banerjee in many ways. He was also critical of her not fulfilling the ‘poribartan’ that she had promised. The fight between the TMC and the BJP has reached a lowest level, with the TMC calling Mr Modi a ‘butcher’ and Mr Modi pointing a finger at Ms Banerjee for selling her paintings at Rs 1.8 crore to Saradha scam-accused Sudipto Sen.
One can’t blame the BJP for its strategy as the regional satraps too are apprehensive of the Modi effect in their backyard. Ms Jayalalithaa is said to be livid that Mr Modi had befriended her enemies like the PMK, MDMK, DMDK and other smaller parties.
Ms Banerjee too is provoked because the BJP has promised Gorkhaland, which she has been opposing tooth and nail. In any case she has to guard her Muslim votes and cannot seem to be soft on the BJP. A rise in BJP votes could benefit the left and reduce the TMC’s seats.
As for BSP supremo Mayawati and Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, they fear that the BJP, which was in the third or fourth position in Uttar Pradesh, now wants to march ahead by polarising the electorate, particularly after the Muzaffarnagar riots. Diverting from Mr Amit Shah’s narrative of badla for the insult suffered by the Jats in Muzaffarnagar, Mr Modi has attacked Mr Yadav for the death of infants in relief camps and for being soft on rapists.
Altogether, while Mr Modi has been talking of development, political rhetorics have proved that they are anything other than development, as caste and religion have overtaken other issues.