Many people in Bihar are happy that the former Chief Minister has finally been nailed in the fodder scam. But they may pardon him
RJD supremo lalu Prasad is currently languishing in cell no 3312 in Birsa Munda Jail in Ranchi, battling for his future. On Monday, the court found him guilty of corruption and criminal conspiracy in the Rs 37 crore fodder scam case, which surfaced in 1996. He not only has to serve a jail sentence but also has to forego his membership of Parliament after the recent Supreme Court verdict. At a time when the RJD was recovering the lost ground in the state, the conviction has come as a great setback to both the RJD and its leader. Mr lalu Prasad would have got away from losing his membership had Mr Rahul Gandhi not put a spoke on the ordinance brought by the Government to help him.
Many wonder whether this is the end of the road for Mr lalu Prasad who has seen many ups and downs. The truth is that the RJD’s future hangs on how his core vote-bank reacts to the conviction and what kind of new political equations emerge in Bihar before the 2014 polls.
Mr lalu Prasad’s career graph is very interesting. He came to power by exploiting the anti-Congress sentiments. He ruled Bihar twice — from 1990 to 1995, and returned for a second time from 1995 to 1997. When the fodder scam surfaced he had to step down, but he put his wife Rabri Devi as his puppet for eight years and virtually ruled the State from jail. He had also been a Union Minister from 2004 to 2009 as a partner in UPA1. He is the longest serving president of a political party today.
The immediate problem for the showman is: Who takes charge of the RJD in his absence. Mr lalu Prasad may get bail after a month or two while his appeal is heard in the High Court. One option is that he can continue to be president and rule by proxy. If the party is handed over completely to his family, senior leaders may rebel while some may opt for the JD(U). On the other hand, if he goes for ‘collective leadership’, with people like Mr Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, there could be a way out. The RJD chief would still call the shots as far as ticket distribution, campaign strategy and alliances are concerned.
Secondly his sustenance power also depends on the period of his jail sentence. If this is not too long, he can manage to keep the party afloat. Not contesting the polls is not a big problem, as other leaders like Bal Thackeray had controlled parties without being an MP or an MlA.
After the conviction, it is not clear which way the Congress would go. While party president Sonia Gandhi wants an alliance with the loyal RJD chief, vice president Rahul Gandhi would prefer to go with the JD(U). The Congress is not in a hurry to disclose its strategy and will play a wait-and-watch game.
Bihar was dominated by the upper castes for long and all the disadvantaged castes like the OBC, Muslims and Dalits had felt oppressed from this domination. It was Mr lalu Prasad who broke the grip of the upper castes by getting power to the backward classes. Interestingly, while he did some good things for social empowerment, his contribution to governance and development was minimal. With the aspirations of the people moving towards development and good governance, Mr lalu Prasad will have to work hard to woo voters by things beyond caste.
Mr lalu Prasad has used his communication skills to remain durable. Going by the reactions coming from Bihar, while the people are happy that justice has at last caught up with Mr lalu Prasad, they are also questioning why only he and not others. The showman might make use of these sentiments to his advantage to keep the RJD alive.
Finally, it is strange that politicians in India do not fade away easily; jail terms and convictions or corruption charges do not shock the cynical public. look at the reception Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy of YSR Congress received recently when he got bail after months of suffering in jail. Also, the people who brought Ms J Jayalalithaa back to power in 2011, have ignored the allegations of corruption against the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister. This is because either the gullible masses believe that their leaders have been framed or they forgive them.
Since Mr lalu Prasad has a huge task of keeping his vote-bank intact, he may have to struggle hard to keep himself and his party afloat. He can do it sitting in jail, provided he chalks out his strategy well. The track record so far is that no politician is out until he dies.