The resurgent AIADMK chief now has to decide on how to play her political cards vis-à-vis the BJP
The AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa has proved that she can politically rise from the ashes, not once, but many times. She was down in the late 1970s when she left the film world and went into exile to Hyderabad for a few years. After MG Ramachandran brought her into politics in 1982, she again had a low point when her mentor stripped her of her position as propaganda secretary and made her a personal non grata within the party in 1986. After MGR’s death, she fought for his legacy and took over the AIADMK from his wife Janaki Ramachandran.
Ms Jayalalithaa became the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu in 1991 but went through another low period in 1996 when she was arrested for a few days in corruption cases. She bounced back in 2001 and ruled Tamil Nadu for a full five-year term. She was down again in 2006 but came back in 2011 with a massive majority. Her crowing glory was the AIADMK’s victory in the 2014 lok Sabha election when the party won 37 of the 39 Tamil Nadu seats in the lower House.
Ms Jayalalithaa has had to step down twice as Chief Minister. The first was in 2001. But she came back within months when the court cleared her in the Tansi land case. The second time was in 2014 when she had to step down after being convicted in the disproportionate assets case. But after her acquittal this week, a triumphant Jayalalithaa will return to the Chief Minister’s office.
Ms Jayalalithaa’s acquittal has changed the political climate in Tamil Nadu as well as in the national politics. First, those who were predicting that she was doomed after her conviction last September, now, have to sit up and look at the new Jayalalithaa, who might just become one of the most powerful Chief Ministers of the country. Ms Jayalalithaa might also win the Assembly election in 2016. She began her campaign the moment after her acquittal when she made a statement including MGR’s name and invoking his legacy. But she also has to ensure that the Opposition, led by the DMK, is significantly weakened.
DMK chief M Karunanidhi, who was hoping to see her in jail for a while, now has to contend with an even more powerful Jayalalithaa. Some of his party leaders, like daughter Kanimozhi and former Union Minister A Raja, are also facing serious corruption charges. His nephew Dayanidhi Maran is also under the cloud. His family is fighting for power. The other State political parties, like the PMK, MDMK and the DMDK, are not in the pink of health either. As for the national parties, the BJP had never been a force to content with in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress has been routed from the State.
Second, Ms Jayalalithaa will try to asset herself in national politics with 37 MPs in lok Sabha and 11 MPs in Rajya Sabha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot ignore the AIADMK in his scheme of things. Given his support for he idea of cooperative federalism, (wherein he is even trying to befriend Chief Ministers like Mamata Banerjee), Ms Jayalalithaa, who is supposed to be on good terms with him, will surely get a better profile. For instance, Mr Modi’s Sri lanka policy now has to take into account the concerns expressed by Ms Jayalalithaa. The latter has also taken a hardline stance on the Katchatheevu islands issue (which was ceded to Sri lanka by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi). This might become a thorny issue alongwith the fishermen issue. Indian fishermen, caught poaching in Sri lankan waters, have often been arrested and jail by lankan authorities. Tamil Nadu is making a big hoo-ha about it. This has to be resolved sooner than later.
Ms Jayalalithaa has been making noises about the Goods and Services Tax. Clearly, she will have to be taken on board when it comes to legislative business in Parliament. The AIADMK, as a block, has become more important to Mr Modi as his BJP-led NDA is in a minority in Rajya Sabha. The big question for Ms Jayalalithaa is whether to move closer to the BJP and get more benefits for her State from the Centre or oppose the party at the State level because it is looking to increase its presence in Tamil Nadu.