Earlier experiments against Congress failed in 1979 and 1989. The new one can work if it can consolidate votes against BJP
The erstwhile Janata parivar is getting ready to re-merge again. In the next few days Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is expected to announce its name and symbol. The six parties which are proposing to unite have already sorted out the modalities. This will be their third avatar after similar experiments in 1977 and 1989. Messrs Mulayam Singh Yadav, Deve Gowda, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav and lalu Prasad had also participated in the experiment. later, each leader formed breakaway parties and achieved some electoral success in their pockets of influence. Now, the question is: Will this experiment succeed and the Janata parivar make an impact on the national political scene.
The six parties which are planning to come together are the Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party, the Bihar-focussed Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and Samajwadi Janata Party, Karnataka’s Janata Dal (Secular) and Haryana’s Indian National lok Dal. Together, these parties hold 15 seats in the lok Sabha.
The Janata parivar includes a former Prime Minister, a sitting Chief Minister, a former Chief Minister and some high-profile leaders. The Samajwadi Party is in power in Uttar Pradesh while the JD(U) is ruling Bihar. The Janata parivar aims to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the growing strength of his BJP.
Interestingly, there is a saying that the Janata parivar can neither remain together for long nor can it stay apart for long. Now, the time for unity has come, but the leaders have only pockets of influence in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana and Karnataka.
Earlier, these leaders, as followers of Ram Manohar lohia and his socialist ideals, had come together on an anti-Congress platform. This time, they are coming together on an anti-BJP platform. The Congress could be an ally during the Assembly elections. It is to be seen if this experiment will help the revival of the Congress, which is lying low after its rout in the 2014 lok Sabha poll and the subsequent Assembly election defeats.
Two of the erstwhile Janata parivar leaders — RlD chief Ajit Singh and BJD chief Naveen Patnaik — are not on board so far. The BJD is in power in Odisha and Mr Patnaik is cautious not to rush. Mr Singh, whose party is strong in western Uttar Pradesh, is reluctant to share the platform with the INlD, which also represents the Jats. However, they might still join if they decide that the experiment may be successful.
Providing an alternative to the BJP may be difficult unless these leaders put aside their personal egos and put up a united fight. Earlier efforts to form a Third Front did not take off because of ego clashes.
In terms of electoral strategy, the Janata parivar has little time is to prepare for the upcoming Bihar poll. Next year, Uttar Pradesh is scheduled for an Assembly election. The BJP won massive majorities in both these States in the lok Sabha election, and it is here that the new outfit should concentrate, if its wants to show results.
Another area of concern is that all the Janata parivar leaders are ageing. Some like Mr Nitish Kumar have given good governance while others like lalu Prasad have not. Also, the vote share of the RJD and the JD(U) in Bihar, the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, the INlD in Haryana and the JD(S) in Karnataka has declined significantly over at least the last decade.
On the positive side, the Janata parivar has a vast social base. If the leaders can exploit this to their advantage, then they can challenge the BJP. But for that, the pre-requisite is solid leadership. The previous experiments failed mainly because of a leadership dispute. This time, for example, lalu Prasad is willing to accept Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav as the leader but is silent about Mr Nitish Kumar’s leadership in Bihar.
The immediate test will be in Bihar. Will the RJD and the JD(U) fight under the same bannerIJ If the Congress and the left parties join in, then the anti-BJP votes will not be divided, as last year’s by-election in Bihar (where BJP candidates were defeated) stands proof. On the whole, the new experiment can succeed only if the anti-BJP votes are not divided and the Opposition fights the BJP in a united manner.