The Congress seems to have got a head start in the ‘alliance game'. The next few months will show the arithmetic
If anything, it will be the arithmetic that will work for the UPA and the NDA in the 2014 election. The Congress, earlier averse to a coalition, has now come to accept it. The UPA has eight partners including Nationalist Congress Party, National Conference, Rashtriya lok Dal, Indian Union Muslim league, Kerala Congress (Mani), Sikkim Democratic Front and the All India United Democratic Front.
It has lost more than half-a-dozen partners in the last five years including the DMK and the TMC. The party’s vice president Rahul Gandhi who experimented with a “Go it alone” policy in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has realised the importance of a coalition, as did his mother in 2004. Eager to return to power for the third time the Congress, therefore, has a grand plan of getting more allies on board. It is eyeing alliances in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and some North-East States.
In the eastern region, the Congress wants to get more States in its kitty. Right now there are 14 States where the party is ruling on its own or with allies. The party is planning to back the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha to form a Government by next week, ending President’s rule in Jharkhand. The deal is that the JMM leader Shibu Soren or preferably his son Hemant Soren will be the Chief Minister. In return, the Congress would contest a chunk of the 14 lok Sabha seats.
In Bihar, the Congress has already made overtures to the Janata Dal (United). As demanded by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Bihar is getting a financial package. Support from the Congress helped Mr Kumar win the recent ‘confidence vote’, while effusive praises were showered on him for his ‘secular credentials’ by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and top Congress leaders.
Even if JD(U) does not become a pre-poll ally, the Congress is eyeing a post-poll scenario. As for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, which was supporting the Congress earlier, the Congress is yet respond to RJD chief lalu Yadav. The lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan, however, could be an ally. In Uttar Pradesh, there is no scope for an alliance with either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party though there is a scope for a post-poll alliance as both the parties are supporting the UPA now.
In Bengal, there are chances of the Trinamool Congress lending support in the post-poll scenario. In Assam, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has ensured that the Opposition remains weak. The absence of a Congress leader of stature in Odisha has left the field entirely to the Biju Janata Dal chief Naveen Patnaik.
The Congress is concentrating on Andhra Pradesh, which gave it 33 seats in the 2009 polls. With the demand for a separate Telangana state looming large, and the YSR Congress gaining ground, efforts are afoot to forge an alliance with the YSR Congress. If Telangana is created, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi too might merge with the Congress and the Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen could be wooed.
Keeping 2014 polls in mind, the Congress acceded to DMK chief K Karunanidhi’s request and supported the candidature of Kanimozhi in the Rajya Sabha poll.Compared to this the NDA is still lagging behind. The earlier strategy of bringing anti-Congress parties together will not succeed this time, as there is also a proposal to form a Federal Front.From a 24-partner alliance the NDA has shrunk to just three allies — Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Haryana Janhit Congress. And there seem to be no signs of NDA getting more allies after the JD(U) parted company last month.
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi may be a stumbling block to luring new allies even in a post-poll scenario. For instance, the BJP has been trying to include the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena into its alliance. But if Raj Thackeray joins, Shiv Sena will withdraw, as the two cousins cannot co-exist.In Haryana, the BJP is hoping to woo the jailed Om Prakash Chautala of the Indian National lok Dal. In Karnataka, efforts are on to bring former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa and his Karnataka Janata Paksha party back into the BJP fold, but it may not be easy.
The alliance game has just begun. The Congress has got an advantage after its JMM alliance. The next few months will show who gets more allies and who manages the arithmetic.