As a functioning democracy committed to inclusive politics, India does not provide an ideal ground for development of rabid sentiments that characterise ISIS, says Rohit Pattnaik
ISIS like its predecessor, al-Qaeda, understands the value of media as a force-multiplier and its astute use of the web and electronic media has ensured its visibility within a short period of time. In fact, by making the records of its campaigns and exploits visible, it has established itself as the foremost radical Islamic outfit in the world today and emerged as a sponge for disgruntled Sunni Muslims.
Its usage of videos and photos of mass executions, beheadings are used as a recruitment tool and also to engage in psychological warfare against its opponents. ISIS today represents what al-Qaeda used to be in its heyday — an avenue for people bound by their fundamentalist Islamic ideology. The propaganda machinery of ISIS is also no less incendiary. ISIS paper on “Smashing the Borders of Tawagheet” which was circulated in June 2014 was for example full of rhetorical references to the way the colonial masters reconfigured the Islamic space through the Sykes-Picot agreement of May 1916 and the need for Muslims to remove all artificial boundaries among nations and establish a caliphate.
Most of the Islamic countries are wracked by sectarian fissures, notably in the West Asia; and this has proven to be a fertile recruiting ground for ISIS. Another factor, especially across the West Asia & North African region and Pakistan, has been the collapse of state institutions, endemic corruption and lack of social justice combined with Wahhabi ideologies propagated across these states. This has provided a mass social base for recruits to radical terrorist organisations.
Al-Qaeda threatened, reinventing itself
The momentum that ISIS has generated through its run of victories will make it a difficult organisation to displace. The rapid advances it achieved in Syria took place when world attention was fixated on events in Israel and Ukraine.
It is clear that with ISIS gaining momentum, al-Qaeda is clearly concerned about losing its cadre and sympathisers to ISIS and the recent announcement of setting up a franchisee for the Indian subcontinent primarily targeting India — Qaedat al Jehad — could be a desperate bid to salvage its position at least in the Indian subcontinent, after losing out to ISIS in Iraq and Syria. It tries to project that it is still relevant and worth supporting. Although its affiliates remain strong in Africa and the West Asia, its influence and capacities have been diminished in recent years. Creation of a new affiliate in South Asia is an effort to rebuild its presence and operations across the region.
Al-Qaeda’s focus on establishing itself in India is nothing new. The idea was espoused by Bin laden himself in 1996. An aspect to note is that Ayman al Zawahari in the
pre-9/11 days had enunciated the need to destroy the Pakistani state to expand the Taliban-ruled emirate in Afghanistan. After the Taliban were routed from Afghanistan, the al-Qaeda leadership found sanctuary in the tribal areas of Pakistan and sporadically attacked the state but it also co-opted with various terrorist organisations patronised by the ISI in Pakistan. Al-Qaeda now has a deep presence in Pakistan as it has close ties with the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.
Reemploying followers through ISIIJ
The timing of the decision by al-Qaeda to start a new franchisee is important. With the impending troop withdrawal, many of the terrorist fighters and affiliate groups of the al-Qaeda are very likely to redirect their attention from Afghanistan to India. One of the unintended consequences of the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan has been ceding space to the al-Qaeda affiliates, which will help further al-Qaeda’s interests. Also the anti-Indian sentiment prevalent among the indoctrinated jehadists affiliated to various terrorist organisations in Pakistan will enable it to widen its recruit base.
Purportedly in the bad books of the Pakistani intelligence today, because of its alliance with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), al-Qaeda may now make peace with the Pakistan Army and turn its attention towards rest of South Asia, especially India.
The biggest tactical prize that the al-Qaeda is likely to achieve which is likely to be chaperoned by the ISI will be a jehadist alliance amongst other terrorist organisation such as the lashkar-e Tayyeba and Jaish-e Mohammad. An indicator of its strategy of building alliances is in the selection of its chief — Asim Umar, a Pakistani who served with the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, which primarily operated in Kashmir and Myanmar.
It is clear that the immediate strategy is to expand its terror network across these areas. It is also inevitable that the ragtag elements of the Indian Mujahideen could collaborate in the new terror network as the leadership of the IM based in Pakistan has already, according to reports, contemplated joint operations with al-Qaeda.
Groups such as leT, IM and JeM have conducted terrorist attacks in India in the past and have their linkages with al-Qaeda. Any major terrorist attack could involve joint planning and execution among these organisations with ISI acting as the puppeteer. Any dramatic attack against India by an al-Qaeda affiliated group could ratchet up its image again and help it retain its cadre base.
Repercussions in India
ISIS has clearly created big waves around the Muslim world in its rather short existence. Reports indicate that some Indian citizens are fighting for ISIS and one has been killed fighting for the group. This is a deeply troubling phenomenon as many of the youth that manage to slip under the security radar and return home could ferment trouble given their exposure to the radical, extremist and apocalyptic ideologies.
One of the reasons why radicalised youth in India are attracted to the jehadist narrative propagated by ISIS and al-Qaeda is that jehadists in these terrorist organisations use the powerful theological narrative of jehadist ideology being true to the religion, which is mixed with apocalyptic narratives. India remains a target for both the terrorist organisations, both as a target and as a source for jehadists.
ISIS and al-Qaeda coming togetherIJ
What could be more troubling is the possibility that that ISIS and al-Qaeda could indeed come together in the region, in case, both these outfits feel it is in their best interests. For al-Qaeda, its presence and it alliances with other terrorist organisations makes it an attractive partner for ISIS. With an increase in radicalisation of many disgruntled youth, both could run as terror schools together and recruit unsuspecting Muslim youth from a region suffering from instability, polarised politics and religious radicalisation. It is inevitable that India will soon be compelled to deal with the blowback from these radicalised jehadists.
However, both these organisations may not be able to have as much a spectacular run as ISIS has managed in Western Asia. While the security machinery in India will have to buck up and deal with the situation proactively, in the long run, it is unlikely for terror ideologies propagated by these extremist outfits to take roots in India.
As a functioning democracy committed to inclusive politics, despite its operational lags, India does not provide an ideal ground for development of rabid sentiments that characterise ISIS. Moreover, India is neither a collapsing state like Iraq or a war-ravaged polity like we witness in Afghanistan or Syria.
Nevertheless, there is no room for complacency here. While it is clear that currently ISIS occupies the ‘terror spotlight’, al-Qaeda continues to remain resilient.
(Rohit Pattnaik is a freelance commentator on strategic issues)