Tehran has political clout in Baghdad that can be leveraged by Washington, DC, to pushback jihadis in that region
Iraq’s newly-appointed Prime Minister-designate, Haider al-Abadi, won the approval of both the US and Iran, as well as that of other Shiite and Kurdish parties in Iraq. As the security situation in Iraq deteriorates, there is increasing speculation that a convergence of interests might lead to US-Iran cooperation over the crisis. Iraq’s two-time outgoing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who was formerly supported by the US and Iran, refused to renounce his position until August 14. He called Mr Abadi’s appointment a “coup against the Constitution” and challenged that as the leader of the biggest political bloc in Parliament, he should form the new Government.
While both the US and Iran ensured Mr Maliki’s two terms in power, the US was quicker to recognise the impact of his partisan politics on the mounting security crisis. Even though US President Barack Obama maintained that the US military assistance was contingent on the formation of a new Government in Iraq, Mr Maliki relied on Iran’s support to hold onto power. Iran’s withdrawal of support for Mr Maliki, therefore, created space for the resolution of the crisis.
In the immediate aftermath of Iraqi President Fouad Massoum’s nomination of Mr Abadi, the US welcomed the decision stating that Mr Massoum had fulfilled his constitutional duties and urged the Prime Minister-designate to “form a Government that is representative of the Iraqi people and inclusive of Iraq’s religious and ethnic identities”.
The US, having ensured Mr Maliki’s appointment as Iraq’s premier in 2006 and 2010, signalled towards receding support for his administration by calling for the formation of an inclusive Government in light of the current sectarian violence. In June, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney stated that Mr Maliki had not done enough to govern inclusively and thus, contributed to the crisis in Iraq. “Maliki’s sectarianism and exclusion of Sunnis has led to the insurgency”, he said.
Amid a deepening political and security crisis, Iran too withdrew support for Mr Maliki’s bid for a third-term in office. Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency reported Tehran’s official endorsement for the selection of Haider al-Abadi as the Prime Minister of Iraq. Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei also reiterated support for Mr Abadi and called on him to form an inclusive Government in Baghdad.
Iran exerts significant political, economic and military influence in Baghdad since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. A staunch ally of Mr Maliki, Tehran reportedly provided military support to his forces as they faced the Islamic State fighters. However, it is speculated that Tehran was involved in Mr Abadi’s selection.
Even though Iran has remained muted in response to the US airstrikes against IS extremists, Tehran has indicated its willingness to cooperate with the US. Mohammad Sadr, adviser to Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, stated on August 11 that the US and Iran can cooperate against the IS because the Iraq crisis is not limited to a military aspect and the US can seek Iran’s help in confronting ideological and cultural obstacles to a resolution. On June 14, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that Iran will “consider” cooperating with the US over action against terrorist groups in Iraq.
US-Iran discussions over the crisis in Iraq took place alongside the nuclear negotiations in Vienna in June, where the US officials clarified that there cannot be any fundamental change in the relationship with Tehran until concerns over the nuclear programme are resolved.
As the Islamic State’s rapid advances intensified the possibility of Iraq’s breakup, the US was compelled to directly intervene and bolster Kurdish forces battling the IS, whereas Iran negotiated with the Government in Baghdad. Given that Iran wields influence over Iraq’s political and security institutions, and American military involvement is crucial to neutralising the extremist threat, a common stance between both countries is essential to resolving the conflict.
However, domestic and geo-political imperatives necessitate that US-Iran cooperation is tacit and limited. The US, its Sunni allies in the Gulf, and Israel will want to limit Iran’s clout over Baghdad and curb the strength of the ‘Shia Crescent’.