Any future political solution to the conflicts in West Asia cannot be achieved without the active involvement of the US, Russia, and China. The emergence of Iraq as a peaceful energy hub will not only be conducive to India's energy security but will also widen India's engagement with the unstable Persian Gulf region
The regional security scenario in West Asia has worsened with the arrival of so-called Arab uprising and the rise of Islamic State (ISIS). Militant groups have grabbed the opportunity to exploit the prevailing chaos to spread their activities throughout the region. The region has now become a hotbed of terrorism with the regimes failing to check their growth. The ISIS, which has emerged as a violent terror group, has challenged to change the existing geographical border of the region. It has also threatened to alter the Skye Picot agreement. The turmoil in Iraq has reached a tipping point, and it does not guarantee a swift end to the fighting.
Iraq is a small country in terms of population and size but has been extremely important, and its geopolitical significance cannot be ignored. Once known for its civilizational richness and cultural charisma, modern day Iraq is a war-torn nation. Iraq’s economy is based on oil which provides more than 90 per cent of the Government revenue and 80 per cent of foreign exchange earnings. However, the dispute between the federal Government and the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) hindered the smooth export of oil. The KRG passed its own oil law in 2007, and has directly signed about 50 contracts to develop energy reserves of the Iraq Kurdistan Region (IKR). The Iraqi Central Government has continuously raised objection to the KRG over these contracts. Iraq is also enthusiastic to invite foreign direct investment, but it faces a number of difficulties due to shaky political system, division among different factions and instability. Presently Iraq is in a state of flux and there is no guarantee of peace and stability in the country due to further advancement of the ISIS.
Internal dynamics
Today, survival in Iraq has become risky. Iraq is ostensibly stuck in a chaos, defined by opaque political climate and multiple ethno-sectarian fault lines. Actually, most debates encompassing violence in Iraq are coloured in various shades of sectarianism. Bombings on Shia areas in Baghdad and Southeast Iraq have seen a consistent surge since 2003. However, there are no official data to distinguish between Sunni vs Shia violence, but most of the killings are reportedly seen as works of al-Qaeda with tacit support of Sunni extremist factions. Between 2003 and 2010, United States’ experiments with peace in Iraq did bring about some periodic stability, but with the US exit starting in mid-2009 all the progress was undone and Iraq relapsed into chaos.
In fact, the bloodshed on streets of Iraq is symbolic of the political disequilibrium and resultant discontentment among average Iraqis which former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki did not address adequately. In absence of strong political institutions and conducive political culture, many Iraqis fear that the country is being dragged back into the turmoil of civil war that it just escaped in 2008-09.
In April 2014, Iraq witnessed the first parliamentary election after the US withdrawal from the country in 2011. Nouri Kamal al-Maliki, faced a growing opposition at home, including from his powerful Shia allies. In January 2013, a draft law restricting the term of the Prime Minister to a maximum of two terms was passed, however, the same law was reversed in August 2013 by the Federal Supreme Court of Iraq. Conversely, the political climate in Iraq was further affected by splits within the Shia camp which endangered Maliki’s survival. The major Shia camp United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) split into two Shia blocs in 2009: the State of law (SOl) Coalition, headed by Nouri al-Maliki, and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) led by Ammar Hakim. In the 2010 elections, the parties contested as opposing coalitions, formally marking the political split.
In addition to the existing crevices, Sadrists divorced Maliki’s coalition in summer of 2012 and furthermore, the powerful Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr suddenly announced his retirement from politics in February 2014. However, Muqtada al-Sadr’s bizarre and unforeseen withdrawal from politics would rather benefit Maliki in the elections since former Sadrists are expected to sign on to Maliki’s SOl coalition. likewise, the opposing Sunni bloc too was divided. In April 2014 elections, Shia Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya Bloc (Secular bloc dominated by Sunnis) competed with two more Sunni blocs: the United Bloc headed by Osama al-Nujaifiand, and the Iraqi Front for National Dialogue headed by current Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq. Even though both Shia and Sunni political mosaics of Iraq were fractured, the intra-Shia political cleavages significantly dictated the political verdict of 2014 parliamentary elections in Iraq, where after eight years as Prime Minister, Maliki found his strongest rivals for the top job came from within his own Shia group.
Islamic State: Security threat, instability in Iraq
The current dynamics in Iraq are centred on advances by the Islamic State in North and West of Iraq in June 2014, which have worsened the internal situation and invoked fears of disintegration. The ISIS is a Sunni group and adept at taking advantage of Iraqi Sunni anger against Maliki’s Government. Sunnis in Iraq (about 35-40 per cent of the population) feel alienated and disadvantaged from the political process of Iraq by the predominantly Shia Government. The undercurrents of Sunni dissatisfaction have been present since Saddam’s ouster, but the rise of Maliki for the third time in the post-2014 elections marked the implosion. Iraqi Sunnis believe that the ISIS would provide them a better alternative to manage their own affairs. It is believe that the military accomplishment of the ISIS is a result of popular Sunni support in provinces of Nineveh and Anbar. The failure of the Iraq Army became evident in Mosul when a mere 800 men ISIS force drove away an Iraqi contingent of 30,000. While regime in Baghdad is struggling to survive, Kurds in Iraq seem to have gained from the ISIS operations by taking over the control of the oil facilities in Kirkuk.
Iraq and regional security dynamics
The Shia-Sunni schism came to fore during the Arab uprising. The historic sectarian fault lines have become wide open. Iran has risen as a major regional power. Iran-Saudi rivalry for supremacy will be the defining feature of the evolving situation. Armed sectarian groups are being supported by influential regional players who do so for their political interests. Proxy war on sectarian lines has been witnessed in countries like Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Even Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies started air strikes on Huthi rebels in Yemen on March 26, 2015 launching an operation by a regional coalition to protect the Government of embattled President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi as the country is on the brink of a civil war. Yemen has been stacked by growing turmoil since the Huthi rebels launched a power takeover in Sanaa in February 2015.
The emergence and advance of ISIS in Iraq has put Iran in a strategic dilemma. For Tehran to take responsibility for or even make an important contribution to security in Iraq is a difficult task. Iran also believes that the ISIS is a great threat to its borders, as well as for regional security. Iran, which backs the Shia, warned of military intervention in Iraq. After the formation of the US-led coalition against the ISIS, Iran flayed the Western states, especially the US, for pursuing a duplicitous policy in the campaign against terrorism in various countries.
Tehran is committed to destroy the ISIS while maintaining the territorial integrity and national unity of Iraq. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif recently said that all support to Shia groups in Iraq would be given within the outline of the country’s territorial integrity. Iran has already announced the ‘fall’ of Karbala or Najaf to the ISIS would trigger its direct intervention. This announcement cleared Iran’s position. But the rapid advancement of the ISIS and Iranians’ worries of spillover compel the security apparatus to progressively increase its involvement in the crisis.
Iraq also seems to have realised Iran’s importance as a regional power and have appeared willing to tolerate Iranian influence in Iraq. Resistance and increasing unpopularity of Maliki does not necessarily exhibit weakening of the Shia camp in Iraq. Iran supported Maliki’s Government in the previous elections; it was a choice driven by lack of alternatives. Their interests converged at the point of ensuring Shia-led regime in Iraq and political vindication against Sunni domination. Modern day Iraq is a manifestation of diverse influences from east and west, including the US which wrote the script of Iraq’s modern history post-Saddam.
Iran wields considerable influence on Iraq after the ouster of Saddam Hussein, particularly after the withdrawal of the US troops from war-torn nation. Given Iran’s influence on social, political and cultural canvas of Iraq, it appears to be the only regional power capable of maneuvering Iraqi politics. Two events in the recent past clearly prove that Iran has had significant impact on Iraq. In 2010, when Iran orchestrated Nouri al-Maliki’s re-election as the Prime Minister in 2010 by convincing Sadrists to back him and in 2012, when Iranians preserved Maliki’s rule by convincing President Jalal Talabani to refuse demands for vote of no-confidence — a vote that Maliki seemed likely to lose.
The US and Saudi Arabia are also willing to contain Iran’s influence in the region in general and in Iraq in particular. However, it must be understood that Iran is the key player in maintaining peace and stability in Iraq and at this point in time, Iraq cannot ignore Iran.
Superpowers’ involvement
External powers have traditionally played an important role in regional security, but security in the region remains fragile. The US is still the most influential player in the region. But during the Arab uprising, countries like China and Russia too played important roles. Any future political solution to the conflicts in West Asia cannot be achieved without the involvement of these powers. However, the rise of the ISIS has left the US with strategic dilemmas. The US needs cooperation from foreign stakeholders, including Russia and China. The danger ISIS poses to the US interests has dawned on America. Therefore Obama Administration has reconsidered military support to the Iraqi Government.
Obama’s Administration advised the new Iraqi Government, headed by US-backed Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, to quickly unite around inclusivity as a “long-term” strategy against the ISIS. The US Administration also advised the Prime Minister to ensure that the other groups have a greater say in the Government. The US Administration firmly believes that the Iraqi Government should give meaningful concessions to the Sunnis and include them in Central Government’s decision-making or political process of the country in order to make them feel they are integral part of the Government. The brutal beheading of western journalists and ISIS proliferation into oil-rich Kurdish regions of Iraq has created a platform for the western powers, particularly the US, to intervene.
India’s concern
Even though India has followed a policy of not getting involved in regional security issues, the reality is that we do get affected from time to time for various reasons. India was compelled to evacuate its citizens from Kuwait in 1990, from lebanon in 2006, from libya in 2011 and from Iraq in 2014. The security of India and the region is interlined with terrorism and piracy going on unabated. India can be of help for the countries who are going through the process of transition to democracy. India has been deeply concerned about the spread of ISIS influence in Iraq and Syria. India is ready to work with international community to deal with these issues.
The emergence of Iraq as an energy hub will not only be conducive to India’s energy security but will also widen India’s engagement with the unstable Persian Gulf region. In the post-Saddam period as the new democratically-elected government under al-Maliki took power in 2005, economic relations between India and Iraq have strengthened. Particularly in the past five years, trade and investment flows between the two countries have increased substantially. In recent years, both the countries enhanced their cooperation in the energy field especially due to international sanctions on Iran. After Western sanctions on Iran, India was struggling to find suppliers of crude oil. For a long time, Iran has been India’s second-biggest crude oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, meeting about 12 per cent of the country’s needs, but the position was taken over by Iraq in 2012.
The effect of instability in Iraq could be felt on the trade between India and Iraq, which fell marginally by 5.2 per cent, from $2,055 billion in 2012 to $19,528 million in 2013-14. The ten-year period between 2003 and 2013 marked a positive phase in the trade ties. During this time frame, India’s imports from Iraq increased substantially from $0.14 million in 2003–04 to $19,247 million in 2012–13 and India’s exports to Iraq rose from $75.17 million in 2003–04 to $1,278.13 million in 2012–13. However 2013-14 witnessed a reversal in the trend, with a downfall in both imports and exports from Iraq. While Indian imports from Iraq fell by 3.7 per cent, exports to Iraq plunged by 28 per cent.
Thus the statistics clearly display a dismal picture on the trade front. The bilateral trade between India and Iraq saw a huge growth in the past: nurtured and nourished by active engagement in oil sector. However, the positive trend in bilateral trade has evidently been affected by the spell of instability and chaos in the region, Iraq in particular. In face of this disequilibrium, Indian policy makers should be focusing on safeguarding the energy trade equation with Iraq, at least in the short run. So far, oil trade has not been affected significantly by the internal chaos and it will be in India’s interests to ensure sustained oil flow from the country.
In the long run scenario, there is a need to classify specific areas for cooperation in the light of new economic realities. The recent successful evacuation experience in Iraq clearly suggests that India is doing good diplomacy with Baghdad. The over-all strategy requires India to assess the country-specific needs and opportunities and then focus on areas where it has a competitive advantage and a niche capability while deliberately targeting sectors like the housing and construction sectors, engineering and textile markets, medicare, and energy exploration, etc.
(The writer is Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi. Views expressed here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of IDSA)