The rising terror activities by the ISIS and the Palestinian issue have already prompted two rival countries in the region to forget their past differences and unite on regional issues, including terror acts and extremism
The US air strikes on Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants in Iraq have dampened their dream to form Caliphate States in Iraq and Syria. ISIS is a group, which has captured big areas of Iraq and Syria to the fear of the Baghdad government and its allies in the West, including some regional countries. However, defeating them and completely wiping them off the region will take time and will require a comprehensive strategy and help from regional players, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. US officials have indicated that the process in Iraq will be a long one, and that air strikes alone will not be enough. Even US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey accepted the fact and said, “The long-term strategy for defeating the militants includes having the United States and its allies reach out to Iraq’s neighbours, including Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.” He also added that such a coalition could “squeeze ISIS from multiple directions in order to initially disrupt it and eventually defeat it.”
A video shown by the ISIS last week depicting the beheading of American journalist James Foley provoked disgust in the US and calls for harsher and rapid action against the militants. It is believed that the killing of the US journalist by the ISIS was a blunder and provoked the West to take rapid action against the terror groups. It is also believed that ISIS activities also provided opportunities for other regional countries to join with the West in its fight against the militants.
After the beheading of Foley, American forces launched mild airstrikes against ISIS militants in Iraq. However, the Obama Administration is concerned that only military power or airstrikes won’t be enough to root out the ISIS. There is a need for combined efforts from all regional countries, including political and diplomatic endeavours, to address the complaints of Sunni groups who have felt marginalised by Iraq’s Shia-dominated government. Iraq’s Parliament has chosen a new Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, in place of Nouri al-Maliki, who has promised to form a new government that will include all factions of Iraq, including Sunnis.
The advancement of the ISIS and the killing of the American journalist have compelled the US to rethink its cooperation with regional countries, especially Syria and Iran. US President Barack Obama declared a “major step forward” in Iraq on August 18 after American fighter jets, bombers and drones helped Kurdish and Iraqi forces in pushing the ISIS back from Iraq’s crucial Mosul Dam. Obama praised the cooperation of the Iraqi and Kurdish forces on the ground at the Mosul Dam. Justifying the US airstrikes against the terrorist groups, Obama said, “We are not reintroducing thousands of troops to engage in combat… We’re not the Iraqi military; we’re not even the Iraqi air force.” The US Administration advised the new Iraqi government to quickly unite around inclusivity as a “long-term” strategy against the ISIS. The US also advised the Iraqi Prime Minister to ensure that the other groups have a greater say in governance.
ISIS and Syria
According to local media, the ISIS has captured one of the important airbase of Syria —Tabqa. The ISIS groups and Syrian regime troops have clashed in fierce battles that reportedly killed at least 346 ISIS fighters and more than 170 members of government forces over Tabqa military airbase, the last stronghold of the Syrian Army in Raqqa province. The clash over Tabqa airbase makes it one of the extreme clashes between the government forces and the ISIS since the start of Syria’s war. ISIS militants displayed the heads of Syrian forces in the city square. However, a Syrian state television claimed that there was a “successful evacuation of the airport” and the army was continuing strikes on “terrorist groups” in the area. It is also reported that the ISIS has captured three Syrian military bases in the area in recent weeks, advanced by arms seized in Iraq. However, the killing of US journalist provided opportunities to the Bashar al-Assad government to join hands with the US in fighting against ISIS militants. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem has already said that his country would cooperate in any global efforts to fight Islamic State militants in Syria, after the US Administration signalled it was considering extending the battle against the militants inside Syria. However, Moualem pointed out that any airstrike without Damascus’ approval would be considered hostile acts. “Anything outside this (cooperation) is considered aggression,” he said. It must be noted that America has been supportive of insurgency against Assad’s regime for three years and there has been no indication as yet of any shift in the US strategy towards the Syrian leader.
Iran-Iraq cooperation and the ISIS
Present crisis in Iraq prompted Iran to help Baghdad stop ISIS enhancement further. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrived in Baghdad on August 24 to meet the country’s new Prime Minister and members of the Cabinet. leaders from both sides discussed the current situation in Iraq. Zarif said Iran is ready to work with the new government and also called for a broad effort against the ISIS. However, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Iraq “needs help and support from everybody... all the forces against terrorism,” but not in the form of troops, as “there is no shortage of fighting men.” Zarif’s discussion with Iraqi officials was the focus of Iraq’s National Unity government and an effort for a broader strategy to fight the ISIS. Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei too welcomed the appointment of the new Iraqi premier, saying that enemies’ plot to push Iraq into further turmoil through political disputes over premiership would be upset once the new Cabinet starts work.
Iran-Saudi rapprochement on regional issues
The rising terror activities by the ISIS and the Palestinian issue have prompted two rival countries in the region — Iran and Saudi Arabia — to forget their past differences and unite on regional issues, including terror acts and extremism. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have welcomed new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in Iraq. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Riyadh on August 25. Abdollahian and Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal underlined the significance of establishment of stability and security in the region and debated bilateral relations and regional problems. This would mark the first visit to Saudi Arabia by a senior government official since President Rouhani was elected in 2013, promising to try to improve Tehran’s relations with the neighbouring countries. Both the nations realised that it is time to break the ice between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The way forward
The existing crisis in the West Asian region in general and Iraq and Syria in particular has changed the strategic dynamics of the region. Some past enemies are now trying to resolve their differences and uniting on regional and bilateral issues. Some analysts believe that taking action against the ISIS in Iraq and Syria should involve some sort of arrangement with the moderate government of President Hassan Rouhani.
Relations between Iran and the US, frozen for decades, have improved sharply since the elections of Rouhani, who has promised to pursue a policy of “constructive engagement” with the West. The interim nuclear deal between Iran and P5-plus one was the first step and a clear indication of rapprochement between the two countries. The present crisis in Iraq and Syria provided a good platform for the US and Iran to change their negative and hostile attitude towards each other and rebuild friendship and cooperation on regional and bilateral issues.
It was a positive step on the part of Iran to send its Foreign Minister to meet the new premier and the Cabinet in Iraq, which also got support from the US. However, it could be argued without any doubt that airstrikes against the ISIS are not the final and permanent solution to the present crisis in Iraq and Syria. It needs broader strategy, engagement and cooperation by all regional countries, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia and the West.
(The writer is Associate Fellow, West Asian Centre, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)