Not all is well with the BSP in Uttar Pradesh which was known to be the key claimant of the reins of the State. But nothing can be predicted till the last ball is thrown
When I returned after an extensive tour of eastern Uttar Pradesh to report on 2007 elections for this newspaper, I brought a small elephant replica and presented it to the Editor saying, “It's elephant all the way.” The Bahujan Samaj Party won a staggering 206 seats leaving behind the Samajwadi Party at 97, while the Bharatiya Janata Party could manage to bag 51 seats. The summer of 2016, nine years after the historic win of the BSP looks not so warm with the party having suffered few titanic setbacks, be it the loss in 2012 to the Samajwadi Party or failing to open an account in parliamentary elections two years later, and a series of reverses subsequently. As if this was not enough, some recent political developments may have added to the anxieties of the BSP.
The latest headache for the BSP has been the exit of its tall leader and one who occupied the prestigious leader of Opposition post in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly. In a swift development, Swamy Prasad Maurya, the four-time MlA from Padrauna and a former Minister, declared his exit last week, causing a flutter in political circles and setting abuzz the rumor mills about his possible next destination. By all indications it looks like Maurya may be heading for the BJP, while the exact details on his association will emerge after the much-hyped rally on July 1 in lucknow that he is organising to demonstrate his political muscles. That Maurya wielded considerable clout in the party and across the voters is a common knowledge.
Maurya is not an isolated case brewing discomfort in the BSP. Exactly a week before Maurya's exit, BSP chief Mayawati had expelled a core cadre of the party and president of Salempur Vidhan Sabha constituency after he reportedly made some derogatory remarks against Brahmins. Sanjay Bharti, a Dalit, was an important leader and this is borne out by the fact that in the BSP’s organisational structure this post is considered above the local MlA or candidate for forthcoming polls, and the person holding it reports directly to the party chief. Many termed this expulsion an ironical act by a leader who shot into political firmament by using the plank of upper caste hegemony and accentuating the divide between the upper and lower castes. It is another matter that political compulsions and smart tactics led her to weave a unique rainbow coalition of upper and lower castes in 2007 elections which ensured Mayawati a historic mandate.
Even as the prospects of upper castes siding with the BSP remain a big question mark, analysts have begun to closely examine the moves by Maurya and how it could affect the party. Maurya aims to create a coalition of the converts, and patch up an alliance of all disgruntled elements from the party. Maurya is also said to be startegising on bringing together backward castes including Mauryas, Sainis, Kushwahas, Shakyas, and Malis, who are said to constitute a good eight per cent in the State.
Alongwith weaving this strategic coalitions on the ground, Maurya is equally emphatic on the perception battle and has also launched a verbal onslaught on Mayawati calling her a power broker who sold the mission of Bhimrao Ambedkar and BSP founder Kanshi Ram for her vested political interests. He has alleged that Mayawati was selling tickets for 2017 Assembly elections. While Mayawati had retorted by saying, “My name is Maya and I am no short of money,” in the days ahead one can only expect this verbal spat to escalate and create more troubles for the BSP chief. Meanwhile, the BJP may quietly be rejoicing what would certainly be a big political and electoral gain, if Maurya were to either eventually join the party, or even if he floated his own.
For a State, which is rightly said to capture and showcase the prevailing political mood in the country and gives sound indication to the future, the upcoming Assembly elections have turned extremely interesting. That the people of the State had scripted a history by sending 71 BJP MPs to the Parliament in 2014 elections — and which in turn changed the national political discourse — is legendary. And, therefore, some say in the backdrop of the recent political developments, the Uttar Pradesh verdict of 2017 shall be critical and raises two important questions — one, whether this will be the beginning of the end for regional parties in Uttar Pradesh; and two, whether it will eventually cement the emergence of the BJP as a party that shall steer the national political course for some times to come. Time will tell a tale, we shall all wait to see.