Holding elections in Jammu & Kashmir has attained more significance than the outcome of the polls. The focus is on the smooth conduct of elections. Separatists have announced a poll-boycott campaign and the militants will attempt to disrupt democracy
For the second time in a row, the Election Commission of India faced a major challenge in deciding the schedule for the Assembly poll in embattled Jammu & Kashmir. The last elections was held in 2008 during the winter season, shortly after the State had emerged from a tough phase of communal violence and regional divide in the aftermath of Amarnath land row. Many stakeholders, especially the People’s Democratic Party, had pleaded the deferment of poll. This time, it is the ruling National Conference that tried tooth and nail to convince the poll panel to postpone the election for a few months in the backdrop of the devastating floods that hit Kashmir Valley in September. The ruling party desperately needs a breather in an attempt to offset the impression that its Government failed to reach out to the affected people during and after the devastating floods. The NC wanted to spearhead the relief and rehabilitation process.
The Election Commission studied the ground situation after interacting with pro-election political parties, bureaucrats and security officials. The feedback was that the number of Assembly constituencies affected by flood was far less than the constituencies not touched by it. To exhibit concern on the plight of flood victims, the panel declared that the election process would not hamper the ongoing relief and rehabilitation process. Interestingly, between the commission’s day-long fact-finding mission in Srinagar (October 18) and its announcement of the poll schedule in New Delhi on October 25, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent his first Diwali in Srinagar to give an impression that things were fast returning to normal.
The poll has been scheduled strategically. The first of the five phases, for which notification was issued on October 28, would cover constituencies where the floods have had least impact and the separatists’ poll boycott campaign does not have takers. Sufficient participation in the first phase would set the ball rolling. The flood-affected areas and constituencies where poll boycott has a considerable impact have been left for later phases.
The upcoming election would be the fourth closely-watched one in the post-militancy era in Kashmir. The 1996 election (read selection of Mr Farooq Abdullah as Chief Minister) was the first to end a long spell of Central rule since 1989. The 2002 election threw Mr Abdullah out and catapulted the PDP to power. The 2008 election sidelined the PDP and brought in the Omar Abdullah-led NC-Congress regime. This time around, the ground situation says that the election will throw many a surprise. It is for the first time that the Bharatiya Janata Party that leads the National Democratic Alliance Government at the Centre, has thrown its hat into the ring. The saffron party that bagged three of the six seats in the last parliamentary elections, is very much encouraged that it is going to field candidates in all 87 constituencies across the State. It is a different matter that it would be difficult for the party to find candidates in many constituencies in the Kashmir valley.
Nonetheless, the party has gained much support in the Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu, and that has turned it into a significant factor. However, riding the ‘Modi wave’ is not enough in the State election. The party’s major predicament is that it does not possess impressive State-level leaders. Factionalism mars the party and many of its known faces have been tainted with corruption charges and nepotism.
Apart from the BJP, three political parties — the NC, the PDP and the Congress — are major stakeholders in the upcoming election, each with its own strengths and faults. The ruling NC had the record of emerging as the single largest party in the past three elections. The first challenge for the party is to maintain the record at a time when the anti-incumbency factor is running deep against its prospectus. Mr Omar Abdullah failed to prove himself as an effective and authoritative ruler. Almost his entire tenure remained crises-ridden, and he failed to fulfill promises on larger political issues. From the alleged rape and murder of two women in Shopian to the killing of more than a hundred youngsters at the hands of police and security forces in 2010 summer, Mr Abdullah had to confront many questions on delivery of justice.
During his tenure, Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru was executed and all Mr Abdullah did was to suppress public resentment with harsh curfews and crackdowns. He failed to deliver on his promise to work for the restoration of State’s autonomy, his plank in the previous poll campaign. Even, his suggestion to selectively withdraw the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act from the peaceful districts of the State was turned down. His Government could not convince the Center to initiate dialogue process with Pakistan. On the face of it, Mr Abdullah led the coalition, but actually his party played second fiddle and the Congress called the shots. He was perhaps content with his position and with a Cabinet berth for his father, Mr Farooq Abdullah.
The PDP, led by former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, would be the beneficiary of the NC’s downslide, primarily because there is no other political alternative in Kashmir. Ever since the party was floated in 1998, it has gained enough strength to stake claims to form a Government. From a lone legislator in 1999, the party led a coalition in 2002 with 16 legislators. However, in 2008, despite bagging 21 seats, it was thrown to Opposition benches because the Congress chose to align with the NC. The Congress actually punished the PDP for withdrawing support during the Amarnath land row that led to the fall of Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Government. The PDP has expanded its base to many areas in the Jammu region. Though it has failed to make inroads in ladakh, the PDP is likely to gain significantly in Kashmir.
Despite its downslide at the national level, the Congress has not lost all sheen in Jammu & Kashmir. In the two previous Assemblies, it emerged as the king-maker party. Many of its leaders have been Ministers consecutively for the past 12 years. Some of them have nourished their constituencies so well that it is difficult to dislodge them. Some of the pro-people decisions (eg creation of administrative units and enhancement of retirement age to 60) that Mr Abdullah took in his last ditch effort to gain public confidence after losing parliamentary elections, were actually cashed in on by the Congress leaders. However, the BJP’s increasing influence in Jammu and factionalism within the Congress would diminish its chances to emerge as a strong contender.
In Jammu & Kashmir, just holding an election has attained more significance than the poll’s outcome. Rather than the permutations and combinations, the focus is on the conduct of elections. The separatists have already announced a poll-boycott campaign and militants would attempt to disrupt the process. The authorities have begun to restrict the separatists’ movement, and the security grid has been reactivated for area dominance to curb militant activities. In such a scenario, it would be interesting to see who would be catapulted to the hot seat.