Having swapped his friends with foes, the JD(U) leader hopes to write a new electoral chapter in Bihar based on old identity politics. But the people are sure to reject Mandalisation 2.0 and, sadly, one of the State’s best performing Chief Ministers will lose in the process
Having ended its long and successful alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party in Bihar and consequently, having suffered heavy losses in the lok Sabha election, the Janata Dal (United) has shifted its focus from the developmental agenda towards caste engineering — a move that is reminiscent of the 1990s political scenario. In a rare situational swing, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar’s joining hands with Rashtriya Janata Dal chief lalu Prasad confirms that Mandalisation 2.0 has formally arrived in Bihar. Notwithstanding the antagonism between Mr Nitish Kumar and lalu Prasad, the fact is that their new alliance is for political survival. Their turf will soon see a high level of polarisation.
Till recently, there was a theme persisting in Bihar which equivocally categorised political churning, based on who supported lalu Prasad and who did not. The oxymoron apart, this theme was always believed by a sizable number of Biharis, who suffered indignity under the long and terrible rule of the RJD in their State. For almost one and half decade, under the RJD, governance was missing in Bihar and this was acceptable for the sizable political classes at the helm of affairs.
The BJP, no matter its political stature at the Center at that time, positioned itself as a strong opposition to the RJD’s tyranny in Bihar. So, it’s essential now to see the dynamics of Bihar politics, not as it is being imposed from the parties’ war rooms, but through an earthy texture. The conscious mind must first deal with two emerging but flawed theories — first, that Mr Nitish Kumar cannot single-handedly fight the growing stature of the BJP in the upcoming State Assembly election, and second, that there is a need to organise political activities on the basis of identity politics rather than the developmental work that has been done in the State by the Government of Mr Nitish Kumar.
There should be a reckoning among the voters how the ‘secular debate’, which had surfaced in the 1990s, had erroneously justified the support of the left parties and the Congress to an incompetent regime in Patna, which had dreaded criminals within its political ranks. Mr Nitish Kumar, although hailing from the same lohiaite school of socialism, parted ways with lalu Prasad early in the day, and formed the Samta Party. The new political outfit initially saw more failures than success. This is because the people had still not seen lalu Prasad’s worst and Mr Nitish Kumar, an introvert politician, was not adequately accessible to the masses.
Mr Nitish Kumar, who changed the ugly course of politics in Bihar in 2005, reached a high level of success partly because he received the unflinching support of old BJP patriarchs like Mr AB Vajpayee and Mr lK Advani. Another veteran politician, Mr George Fernandes, also played an important role in Mr Nitish Kumar’s political rise. Together, they also gave an ideological alternative to the socialist camp which was on the downfall anyway, and finally ended 15 years of jungle raj in Bihar. The most important and undeniable fact is that the last 10 years of comparatively better governance is not a mean accomplishment in a State that has been living in dystopia.
Equally, it is also true that in the hey days of the RJD, neither the JD(U) nor the BJP stood a chance against lalu Prasad and his political machinery in the electoral arena. That means, that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance structure in Bihar was solely formed to contain lalu Prasad. Now, caricaturing that old fear, Mr Nitish Kumar is adamant not only to oppose the BJP but also be on the wrong side of a much-maligned political outfit, which has no dearth of black patches of bad governance and whose spectre still haunts the masses of Bihar who aspire to live a life happily and one without fear.
Of course, lalu Prasad did throw tantrums while being a coalition member of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance within which he held considerable clout. His populist goodies also somewhat lifted his fallen credentials to all that had little impact in the long run, as his governance intentions stayed unchanged. Now his party, without the strength of recognisable political faces, is being run more like a desperate family firm rather an electoral grouping which originated from an alternate political movement which had once vowed to fight corruption that characterised the Congress culture in the 1970s. Ironically, Bihar is now growing in the double digits but there is deep political uncertainty. Every political move is being viewed from the angle of ‘personification’.
Today, it seems hard to believe that Mr Nitish Kumar who brought Bihar back on track, instead of going it alone in the electoral arena and seeking to woo the people with his developmental works, has joined hands with his formidable adversary. Moreover, it is not only morally but also politically incorrect for Mr Nitish Kumar to falsify his uncomfortable past, and indeed the mandate of the people which was endowed upon him so that he could start a new chapter in the history of Bihar. The mandate was not given to him for replaying the petty games of opportunism and surrender — both of which are a betrayal of the people.
Surveys suggested that there was ample possibility that Mr Nitish Kumar could continue as the Chief Minister. But he blundered by abruptly resigning from office. And now, to make matters worse, he is seen in the company of unpopular folks who neither share his world views nor have an impeccable track-record like him. No one really knows where this motley lot will head in the future but the concerns of survival keep them in the same orbit.
This perplexed state of affairs is not confined to political circles alone — as the real difficulty of choices will be with the voters. But if fear is a virtue, then politics can become a predictable business. Mandalisation 2.0 will not find many takers, and in the process, Mr Nitish Kumar will lose. Few will be happy to see that for he is still a leader who tried to do something good for his State. Also, the 10 years of JD(U)-BJP rule in Bihar should not be dumped the BJP either as it was a good time for the State.
(The author is a New Delhi-based journalist. The opinions expressed here are personal)