The Bharatiya Janata Party must seriously introspect whether raking up corruption issues alone will yield the desired results in the next lok Sabha election. After all, many tainted leaders have been re-elected to the Karnataka House
Even as the much expected result of the Karnataka Assembly election was trickling in, political analysts and commentators were writing obituaries of the ruling BJP not only in its first southern citadel but also the entire region beyond the Vindhyas. Some of these very observers who had projected the party’s win in Gujarat as a verdict on the Chief Minister and a local phenomenon, were describing Karnataka as a reflection of the changing mood and perception of the country’s electorate, a referendum of sorts on the UPA2 Government, notwithstanding the corruption charges, inflation and policy paralysis on all fronts.
Undoubtedly, the Congress, which is under attack both within and outside Parliament over corruption charges, won decisively, defeating its tormenter at the Centre.
Facing flak, the BJP leaders sought to take a moral high ground that the party lost because it removed BS Yeddyurappa, and the dared the Congress to hold the general election now — for which both parties are apparently ill-prepared now.
However, it would be naïve to blame anti-incumbency alone for BJP’s debacle in Karnataka. It was a combination of factors including the sympathy wave following the betrayal by Janata Dal (Secular) over transfer of power, the building of lingayats as a solid vote-bank by Mr Yeddyurappa, mining barons such as Mr Janardhana Reddy joining hands with the party et al which had contributed to the saffron party’s kitty. None of these factors was with the BJP this time around.
As for the Congress, it benefited from the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor. With the people of the State getting disillusioned over instability, repeated trials of strength and leaders rallying around legislators through horse trading, and the perceived focus on survival rather than governance, the only options in the Opposition were the Congress and the JD(S).
However, the father-son party of HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy, which was at the forefront of the Opposition agitations against the BJP Government, had its limitations. Despite Herculean efforts and state-wide tours by the duo and the raking up of an emotional issue like Cauvery, the party’s appeal was limited by and large to the old Mysore region, the Vokkaliga community, farmers and the rural areas, while others gave them a thumbs down.
While there is absolutely no doubt that the Yeddyurappa factor damaged the BJP, the extent of damage has been unduly exaggerated. If Mr Yeddyurappa had been that effective, his nascent Karanataka Janata Paksha ( or Party) would not have fared so dismally. If the BJP without Mr Yeddyurappa was reduced to one-third of its last tally, Mr Yeddyurappa without the BJP and the parivar cadre also proved to be no less a disaster.
The victory in Bangalore has undoubtedly come as a morale-booster to the beleaguered Congress. The success in Karnataka can also serve as a game-changer for the Congress in the entire south —once its bastion — where it faces tough challenges now.
The Congress is certain to show the BJP the mirror and tom-tom that the saffron party’s anti-corruption campaign against it has failed. However, it would be naïve on the Congress’s part to treat the outcome as a referendum and not set its house in order.
The party’s dropping of Mr Pawan Kumar Bansal and Mr Ashwani Kumar from the Union Cabinet and agreeing to work on the CBI’s autonomy after the Supreme Court’s remarks reflect an apparent realisation of the reality.
The Karnataka episode also has lessons galore for the BJP. Its onward march to compete with the Congress as a national party in every sense of the term, not just, numbers, has come to a naught. The people of the south have got disillusioned with the maiden performance of a party which has always been perceived as a predominantly Hindu, Hindi heartland party.
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and now Karnataka should be an eye-opener for the party that it cannot hope to capture the Centre by only projecting the Gujarat model. In the eyes of the public at large, Gujarat is fast appearing to be an exception rather than a norm, the credit for which goes to Mr Narendra Modi rather than the BJP. The developments in the Karnataka unit leading to the present scenario also shows the extent of compromises the party has made in its quest for power — from resorting to crass caste politics to making allies out of mafias. The problems were not nipped in the bud.
The party should not get carried away by the media hype. Had corruption been the only issue, then the likes of Mr B Sriramulu or Mr Ashok Kheny would not have won. It is time the party seriously introspects whether raking up corruption issues alone will yield the desired results in the forthcoming lok Sabha election.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in New Delhi)