Brexit plunges the EU into its third major crisis of the decade after the Greece’s eurozone debt turmoil and last year’s influx of a million migrants and refugees
The European Union (EU) must reinvent itself to survive after Britain’s vote to exit. It may be too late. The damning verdict of British voters was the worst setback to the EU since the germ of a more integrated Europe first took shape in the ruins left by the World
War II. However, top EU officials tried to put on a brave face as the European enterprise — already wracked by economic woes, Greece’s shaky future in the euro and Europe’s inability to manage the refugee emergency — came face to face with yet another existential challenge.
Brexit threatens to be wildly contagious, although EU Parliament President Martin Schulz asserted, “The chain reaction that is being celebrated everywhere now by euroskeptics won’t happen”. Even before the ballots were all tallied, populist leaders in some of the EU’s founding nations were clamouring for a vote on EU membership in their own countries. EU diplomats point to Denmark, the Netherlands and possibly France as States where political pressure for a British-style vote will be strongest, but they see no chain reaction of other countries voting to secede.
As the British pound lost value and with markets jittery, EU leaders underlined that the UK must negotiate its exit quickly and warned that it would remain a member, with all the obligations that entail, until the talks are over. The exit process is also unclear. Article 50 of the EU treaty, which sets out how a State can leave the bloc, offers little detail. Although it provides for a
two-year withdrawal, many say it will take longer and some fear the process will become bitter, disrupting European affairs across the board. Once its intentions are officially notified, Britain would have two years to officially negotiate its departure, although london could be granted an extension if all 27 EU member States agree.
Therefore, the priority for the Governments and institutions at the heart of the EU will be to negotiate a smooth divorce and prevent contagion. “Europe will continue but it must react and rediscover the confidence of its peoples,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault tweeted in a first reaction. “It’s urgent.”
The heads of the EU’s main institutions said in a statement that they want Britain to act on the vote “as soon as possible, however painful that process may be. Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty”. The statement was signed by European Council President Donald Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, European Parliament President Martin Schulz and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency.
From Paris to Berlin to Brussels, EU leaders agree they need to change in response to the British referendum. Yet they disagree on how — on whether to tighten their union or rethink it to address those who increasingly distrust all things EU. And before they make any lasting moves, EU decision-makers remain at the mercy of Britain’s Conservative Party and how it handles the pending divorce. Since its inception, and especially since France rejected a European defence community in 1954, European unity has been a political project promoted through economic interdependence.
“Hurrah for the British! Now it is our turn. Time for a Dutch referendum!” said Dutch firebrand Geert Wilders, chairman of the PVV party which is leading Dutch opinion polls. The jubilation was similar at the French National Front party of Marine le Pen.
At EU headquarters in Brussels, leaders moved swiftly to try to minimise chances that other member countries might head for the exit. After Britain’s departure, a 27-nation EU would have to do without the world’s fifth economy, Western Europe’s top military power, a diplomatic juggernaut and a reliable bridge to the United States and the rest of the global Anglosphere.
Reacting to Brexit referendum, Tusk warned that a British withdrawal “could in fact be the start of the process of destruction of not only the EU, but also of the Western political civilisation”. He said EU leaders will meet without British Prime Minister
David Cameron next week on the sidelines of a summit in Brussels “to start a wider reflection on the future of our Union”.
In retrospect, European leaders took too long to recognise the groundswell of British discontent, and never took it seriously enough, equating it only with the sometimes farcical oratorical performances of UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage. But Farage’s joyful prediction on Friday that the EU is dying no longer sounded so farfetched. So more than starting to think of grand new missions for itself, the EU needs first to staunch the bleeding and protect what it has.
All eyes now turn to France and Germany, the reliable axis of the EU since its inception as the Common Market in 1958. But even there, the balance will change. With Britain’s departure, Germany will lose a pro-business ally, and the departure of the free-market island could turn the EU further toward the left. Germany also punches far above France’s weight now, economically and inside EU institutions, and a Britain-free bloc will be even more subject to Berlin’s influence.
On the EU’s plus side, it is used to multitasking through numerous crises, and has a proven track record of muddling through to find compromises. For much of the past decade, it has had to fight the global economic crisis that already weakened support in much of its southern rim. Then Greece had threatened to tumble out of the eurozone group of nations that share the common currency, Russia annexed Crimea, and a million refugees on the EU’s borders had to be dealt with. After all that, the EU is still standing. But Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the EU executive, has direly labelled the body he has led since November 2014 “the last-chance Commission.”
Some EU Governments may lobby for even greater European integration now that they will be rid of Britain, long the biggest thorn in the side of those seeking a more seamless and unified continent. But in other, newer member nations like Hungary and Poland, distrust of all things EU is on the rise.
On Tuesday, EU leaders will hold a previously scheduled two-day summit, with the urgent priority what to do following the British vote. Some will be looking to punish Britain and make its exit anything but a cakewalk, if only to scare off copycats.
“If you leave, you have to assume the consequences,” said Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel. After all, some have predicted Thursday’s vote might lead to the effective breakup of Britain, and Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon spoke on Friday of a possible second referendum on independence from the United Kingdom after a 2014 vote ended with the union intact.
The economic turmoil that may occur in an increasingly isolated Britain could also discourage other EU members from following its
example. At the same time, the pressure has increased for the EU to reinvent itself by getting closer to ordinary citizens who increasingly are critical
of what they see as an aloof elite. Though by many accounts the greatest setback in the EU history, the British withdrawal could also offer an opportunity.
But Tusk hopes the EU will recover. “I always remember what my father used to tell me,” Tusk said Friday. “What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger.”