At the tactical and operational level, the Indian Armed Forces have replaced their conventional policy of Graduated Response against Pakistan with Intense Response. This has fetched us rich dividends
Pakistan is a complex nation with several centres of power — the Army, the Inter-Services Intelligence, the extremists, the religious groups and the beleaguered civilian establishment. From a failed state it is soon becoming a pariah state. It is certain that there has been a silent coup in the country wherein Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been overpowered by his Chief of Army Staff. The former has not only been tamed but been made a lame-duck Prime Minister.
The Army is calling the shots. It is writing the script, dictating terms and the civilian Government is complying. With the reins firmly in its hands, of course without accountability, the Army is back to its old games vis-à-vis India. Pakistan is in turmoil and on the verge of an implosion. The jihadi monster it nurtured for many decades in the past has now turned on the state. The Army has its hands full combating the jihadis. It also has been infiltrated by these elements thus threatening it from within as well as bringing terrorist culture among its rank and file. The Army is fast losing its sheen and the pride of place it once enjoyed.
Unable to control the jihadis at home, the Pakistani Army has decided to once again play the ‘K’ card. The first attempt was made in the beginning of the year when the Chief of Army Staff reminded the nation and the international community that Kashmir is its “jugular vein”. However, it did not find much favour since the civilian establishment had a different agenda including peace with India. The Army was hurt and preparations began to force the Prime Minister to toe its line.
Subsequent manoeuvres by the Army to pressurise the civilian Government, leading to the siege of the capital city by the two Army-backed politicians that forced the premier to negotiate, need no repetition. India’s decision to call off the Foreign Secretary-level was the knockout punch in the fight for supremacy between the Army and the civilian establishment.
The Army was overjoyed because it now had a free hand in exploiting the ‘K’ card for mustering anti-India sentiments in Pakistan. The Pakistani Army considers the Kashmir issue as its raison d’etre. It understands that the only element that can galvanise and unite the whole nation is the bogey of Kashmir. Thus, the plan to internationalise the Kashmir issue, formulated at the Army headquarters in Rawalpindi, began to unfold.
Mr Sharif was handed over a script to be read at the United Nations General Assembly. The Pakistani establishment was shocked by the international community’s total neglect of Mr Sharif’s speech in which he unsuccessfully tried to internationalise the Kashmir issue. It was further shocked when the Indian Prime Minister completely ignored the issue as well, and instead, drew the world’s attention to the disaster that had struck Jammu & Kashmir. Furthermore, no mention was made of Kashmir in the bilateral summit between the US President and Indian Prime Minister. It was a clear signal that the US is committed to bilateral resolution of issues between the two neighbours.
Having got a beating at the UNGA, the Pakistani Army returned to the home turf once again. Thus followed a series of statements by disgruntled and disgraced politicians and a former dictator claiming Kashmir to be a disputed territory and a legal issue. This attempt also failed to provoke the Indian Government that once again ignored the Pakistani rhetoric, acerbating the Army’s frustration.
On the other hand, New Delhi has also been seriously addressing the issue of “gaps in defence preparedness” that had resulted in India almost losing its conventional superiority over Pakistan. The Indian Defence Minister has given the go ahead and cleared for purchase many crucial and long-pending projects. The thrust given by the new Government to defence preparedness through new raisings, modernisation and re-equipping of its Armed Forces, has rattled the Pakistani Army.
The Pakistani security establishment has concluded that once India regains its conventional superiority, the ‘K’ card could become a non-issue. The Pakistani Army could not afford to allow this to happen. Its frustration translated into its compulsion. It once again decided to provoke India and draw international attention towards Kashmir. It was also afraid of the adverse publicity it would attract in case it activated the line of Control because of the havoc caused by the flood and the ongoing festive season of Eid. It decided to activate the International Border this time. Pakistan does not recognise the settled status of the IB but refers to it as a ‘Working Boundary’ emphasising the disputed status of the State of Jammu & Kashmir.
The intense shelling of civilian settlements close to the border, resulting in the loss of valuable human lives, cattle and standing paddy crop, was a most barbaric act which any civilised and professional Army would never do. It was an act of terror from across the border. The Pakistani Army disgraced itself and behaved like a terror army. To justify its misadventure and internationalise the issue, it blamed the Indian forces for initiating the ceasefire violations and demanded monitoring of the violations by the United Nations Military Observers Group in India and Pakistan, that has become irrelevant after the Simla Agreement.
The reasons for the timing are obvious. Impending winters, dwindling strength of the terrorists in Kashmir, and a large number waiting to be infiltrated, are adding to the frustration of the Pakistani Army. The Army also intends to divert jihadis from Afghanistan into Kashmir. All this is intended to keep the pot boiling, even during the winters, so that Kashmir continues to draw international attention.
India has responded in a mature and responsible manner. At the tactical and operational level, the policy of Graduated Response has been replaced by Intense Response. This has paid dividends. The statements of top Indian leadership indicate a shift in strategy from deterrence to compellence. India has made bilateralism and no terror as the two planks of its strategy. It refuses to succumb to Pakistan’s pressure tactics to force India to the table.
A pariah state does not follow rules and conventions. Pakistan is not going to be quiet for long. Its Army will react after re-grouping. India cannot afford to lower its guard. The Armed Forces will have to remain alert and use the intervening period for further capacity-building. The damages caused to the fence and other structures on the border and line of Control need attention. Our intelligence apparatus must be on its toes. The door to negotiations should not be completely shut.
(The author is a retired Army officer and security and strategic affairs analyst. The views expressed here are personal)