Rising political awareness in the country, which has come with increased literacy, has bred frustration with the failure of political parties to deliver
Understandably, the high turnout in the current lok Sabha poll has sparked the predictable speculation that it indicates a desire for change. It perhaps does, and the reasons for it are well-known and do not bear repetition. What needs to be noted is the wide dispersal of a high level of political consciousness among disparate social segments and geographical areas in India the heavy polling indicates. This phenomenon needs to be analysed for a full understanding of the link between social developments and political action in a country whose ‘backwardness’ is the staple fare of a large section of Anglo-American journalism.
One reason for the high turnout has, of course, been the increase in the percentage of literacy, from the 18.33 per cent recorded in the first Census in 1951 to 74.04 per cent in the 2011 Census.This has vastly expanded the readership of the print media — particularly the Indian languages media, which have emerged as very powerful shapers of public opinion and have played a key role in the heightening and spread of political consciousness. It is not merely that the number of people buying newspapers and magazines has increased, but that in many parts of the country inhabited by the less privileged, one often sees pages of local newspapers pasted on makeshift boards for people to stand around and read. A slightly less common sight is people reading various pages of the same paper and exchanging them after finishing. And, of course, television is increasingly ubiquitous even in urban slums and has a growing presence in villages.
All this indicates increased prosperity leading to higher purchasing power, enabling people to buy television sets. It also shows the growth of the consumer goods sector of the electronic industry, the emergence of television channels as important providers of entertainment and instruments of influencing discourse, and the rise of a sufficiently large number of people with funds to invest in these, knowing full well that the returns are unlikely to be adequate and they may have to write off their investments.
These are positive developments which also have negative aspects. Despite growing prosperity, absolute deprivation persists and a feeling of relative deprivation, born of unfulfilled rising aspirations, is widespread. Besides, the ability to read and write does not invariably mean the ability to take informed, rational decisions. Human beings are capable of reason as they are capable of hearing or smelling. As in the case of the last two, the ability to reason can be destroyed or can remain undeveloped. Or it can be overwhelmed by a surge of hatred or adulation unleashed in the course of an intensely bitter election campaign or mass movement. Elementary, mechanical literacy gives people access to Indian languages media but not necessarily the judgement to separate puff and propaganda from facts.
Political debates in public spaces — a boon of the country's democratic order — provides inputs to judgement-making, and hones one's skill in it. Political awareness, however, has bred frustration with the failure of political parties and politicians to deliver. This has within itself seeds of cynicism with democracy which, should the economy plunge into a crisis, may spawn a tendency to take a chance with dictatorship, which is precisely what happened in Germany and Italy leading to the rise of Hitler and Mussolini.
The chances of such a development occurring in India are remote. But to rule out such a possibility altogether and to put things back on the rails, India needs the present elections to yield a stable Government with a dominant coalition partner with strong a leader and agenda for governance. A patchwork quilt of a coalition, with outside ‘support’, will be a prescription for disaster.