Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi will fight out yet another bitter round of politics. There are others whose fate hangs in balance
Among the States that are going to polls this summer, the most fascinating one is Tamil Nadu, as the fate of its leaders — Chief Minister and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam boss J Jayalalithaa, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief M Karunanidhi, Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam head Vijayakanth Desiya and Pattali Makkal Katchi boss S Ramadoss — will be decided on May 19. Stakes are high for all of them.
Jayalalithaa is desperate to come back to power and has been working for it more so after the Karnataka High Court acquitted her in a disproportionate assets case last year. She is optimistic because a split in the Opposition votes will be beneficial for the AIADMK, which has a vote share of about 44.3 per cent.
The party won 37 of the 39 lok Sabha seats in 2014. Even in 2011, it won 151 seats with a vote share of 38.4 per cent. The AIADMK was not in alliance with any major political party during the 2014 general election. In the 2011 Assembly poll, the party had smaller allies. However, it has none in the upcoming election.
Jayalalithaa also has not developed any second-rung leadership. She believes that there is no need for any other leader. The problem is that she is not keeping well and even vigorous campaigning may be affected. She faces the danger of a political witch-hunt if she loses.
Stakes are also high for Karunanidhi, who has led the DMK for almost five decades and has served as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu five times. He will fade away quietly if the party loses this time. He is seeking votes as a last chance. He is the chief ministerial face for the party, which has aligned with the Congress this time. If he wins, he will be 98 years old by the time he completes his term and, therefore, may anoint his son MK Stalin as the Chief Minister.
Karunanidhi also has to balance a family feud wherein his daughter Kanimozhi Karunanidhi and elder son MK Alagiri are jockeying for his legacy. His party was also hit by the 2G Spectrum scam and is yet to recover from the shock. That is why he is wooing smaller parties, including the DMDK. In the 2011 Assembly poll, the DMK aligned with the Congress, PMK, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Kongunadu Munnetra Kazhagam. For the 2014 general election, the DMK was in alliance with VCK, MMK, the Indian Union Muslim league and the Puthiya Tamizhagam.
Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi may not depart from the scene at the same time. With age not on her side, Jayalalithaa may hang around at least till the next election if her health permits. If the DMK loses, it will probably split and join smaller parties like the PMK and the DMDK.
For DMDK chief Vijayakanth, the poll is crucial. Has he been overratedIJ This will be proved by the DMDK’s performance this time. The party was formed in 2005 by the Tamil actor. It had an alliance with the AIADMK for the 2011 Assembly poll and was a part of the BJP alliance for the 2014 general election. Though the party is not a threat to the two Dravidian majors, it is an important ally due to its strongholds in certain areas of Tamil Nadu. It had a vote share of 7.8 per cent in 2011 and won 30 seats in the Assembly, but has no seat in Parliament. Vijayakanth is going it alone after rejecting overtures from other parties.
The PMK, a caste-based party, has a single seat in the lok Sabha and three in the Assembly. Former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss, son of PMK chief S Ramadoss, is its chief ministerial candidate. The party was a part of the DMK alliance in 2011 and was with the BJP in 2014. It has a 4.4 per cent vote share.
The Congress, which has lost its prominence since 1967, is yet to be revived. It has been riding piggyback on the Dravidian parties. It has no local leader to match Jayalalithaa or Karunanidhi. It won no seats from Tamil Nadu in 2014 and has only five seats in the State Assembly. Its vote share has come down from 9.3 per cent in 2011 to 4.3 per cent in 2014.
The BJP has one lok Sabha seat from Tamil Nadu and its vote share has gone up from 2.2 per cent in 2011 to 5.5 per cent in 2014. It too has no important State leader. But the BJP might gain strength with the support of the Kongu Nadu Makkal Katchi.
The Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam has a 3.5 per cent vote share but no seat in either the Assembly or the Parliament. Party chief V Gopalsamy will perhaps disappear if he loses again.