It is unlikely that after its efforts to destroy a large number of tunnels, Israel will consent to any free flow of construction material to Gaza without international guarantees.
Saturday Special focusses on the resumption of Gaza conflict and looks for its solution (Main) and the role of the US (OtherVoice)
After a month of constant aerial bombing since the Israelis began their air offensive — Operation Protective Edge — and three weeks of artillery shelling after they invaded Gaza, the residents of Gaza had a short respite to have limited experience of leading a “normal” life during a period of three days ceasefire which ended on Friday at 8 am local time. This was the longest ceasefire in more than a month after Israel began its air operation between Israel and Hamas, quite unlike the earlier ceasefire efforts which failed to hold even for a few hours with one ceasefire breaking even before it began. There were hopes that the talks held in Cairo night result in a more sustained truce after Israel announced that it was ready to extend the ceasefire indefinitely. Hamas leaders had earlier indicated their opposition to any extension of ceasefire in the absence of an Israeli commitment to agree to a number of Hamas preconditions, including lifting of all blockades of Gaza. Israel had its own conditions for a ceasefire agreement, including disarmament of Hamas military, although in its case these were not preconditions for the extension of the ceasefire truce.
Now that the ceasefire period is over and hostilities have begun, unless a miracle happens and another ceasefire truce is arranged, the residents of Gaza will have to again undergo the ordeal of surviving air operations with consequent loss of life and damage to properties.
According to conservative estimates, more than 1,800 Palestinians had lost their lives during the Israeli air attack and artillery shelling, many of them women and children (almost all counts of casualties so far put their proportion at nearly a third of total casualties). In addition, thousands of structures were either destroyed or severely damaged. There were 67 Israeli casualties, almost all of them being Israeli military personnel. Renewed air attacks and artillery shelling will only increase the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza without any major loss of human lives in Israel. While Israelis may face some disruption in their normal life, they will not experience any major damage to their property or any substantial loss of lives, especially civilian ones, with the almost ineffectual rocket attack by Hamas. While there will be no doubt universal sympathy for the Palestinians — with protests against Israel of alleged criminal acts by them — it will have little impact on Israeli military attacks.
With the West united in its support for Israel’s right to respond militarily to Hamas’ rocket attacks, disarray in the Arab and Muslim world, the obduracy of Hamas and their almost total failure to inflict any damage or pain to Israelis, the lot of the Palestinians in Gaza is not an enviable one.
Where do we go from hereIJ
First efforts must be made through strongest possible means to extend the ceasefire pending an Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement. If it is along the lines of November 2012 agreement, it would only be a temporary palliative with certain future conflicts of the type just witnessed. That agreement required that “All Palestinian factions shall stop all hostilities from the Gaza Strip against Israel, including rocket attacks and all attacks along the border. And opening the crossings and facilitating the movements of people and transfer of goods, and refraining from restricting residents’ free movements and targeting residents in border areas and procedures of implementation shall be dealt with after 24 hours from the start of the ceasefire.”
Neither of these two was resolved at any of the subsequent meetings and these are still precisely the requirements that are being currently demanded by both sides. Unless these are resolved in a meaningful manner, there will be similar hostilities in the near future.
However, the presence of a large number of well-built concrete tunnels in Gaza has made the various openings between Gaza and its neighbours more difficult now. It is very unlikely that after its efforts to destroy a large number of these tunnels, Israel would consent to any free flow of construction material to Gaza without some sort of international assurance/guarantee that these materials will not once again be diverted to the construction of tunnels from Gaza into Israel. It is difficult to see how arrangements to give such an assurance can be put in place. Hence, even a truce of the November 2012 type may not suffice now.
While Hamas has suffered substantial losses, both in respect of men and material, which will blunt its force for some time, it will no doubt redouble its efforts to replenish its war material. Meanwhile it has won some sort of victory in the international political field with vast majority of the world sympathising with the Palestinians and condemning Israel with accusations of war crimes. It will be difficult to prove these charges, especially when the Palestinians are reluctant to accept ICC jurisdiction.
As an ICC Press release stated on August 5, 2014 after the visit of H.E. Riad al-Malki, the Foreign Minister of Palestine, to the ICC headquarters, “Palestine is not a State Party to the Rome Statute; neither has the Court received any official document from Palestine indicating acceptance of ICC jurisdiction or requesting the Prosecutor to open an investigation into any alleged crimes following the adoption of the United Nations General Assembly Resolution (67/19) on 29 November 2012, which accorded non-member observer State status to Palestine. Therefore, the ICC has no jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed on the territory of Palestine.”
What can India doIJ
Very little. Its sympathies with the Palestinians are well known. It has very little influence on this matter with either the Israelis or the Palestinians. It can attempt to influence the international efforts at brokering a ceasefire through whatever influence it may have on the other major international actors on the stage.
(Dr G Balachandran, formerly a consultant to the America’s Division of the Ministry of External Affairs, is a Consulting Fellow at IDSA)