We have been the victims of Pakistan-sponsored terror and proxy war for almost three decades now. But we have not till date formulated a comprehensive national anti-terror strategy. This hampers our response to grave provocations
Media is agog with the reports of the reported visit of wanted Jama’at-ud-Da’wah terrorist Hafiz Saeed in areas opposite the Rajasthan border in the Sind province of Pakistan. It has been reported in the media that he visited the border villages opposite the Tanot- Kishengarh sectors of Jaisalmer. The areas he is reported to have visited are Khairpur, Mirpur Khas, Mithi and Islamkot. A little correction before we proceed further. Having served for a fairly long periods on the Rajasthan border, I can say with authority that the villages he visited are not opposite Jaisalmer but are opposite Barmer. The correction is needed to understand exactly the areas he visited and the purpose of visit. In fact, the area opposite Jaisalmer falls mostly in the Punjab province and not Sind. Punjab is the area of operation of Hafiz Saeed and hence nothing unusual in his visit. But he has been seen in the border areas of Sind for the first time, hence the excitement about his visit.
The three of the four areas visited by Hafiz Saeed fall opposite the Munabao-Gadra Road sectors of Barmer. Munabao, incidentally, is the last rail head on the Indian side of the border with Pakistan. A weekly international train, Thar Express, runs between Jodhpur and Karachi via Barmer and Munabao on Indian side and Khokrapar, Mirpur Khas, Hyderabad and Ahmedpur in Pakistan. A large minority Hindu population resides in this area. The majority are poor and backward. The Rana of Umarkot, a princely State opposite Barmer, is a Hindu Soda Rajput. Islamkot is located very close to the border opposite the Indian State of Gujarat. It also provides access to the Rann of Kutch.
This area is also important economically. Coal and gas findings have been reported on the both sides of the border making it strategically-important as well. Significant strategic assets like Reliance refineries and other economic centres are also located close by.
The media is full of stories speculating the possible intent of his visit to border areas in Sind opposite our Rajasthan. Most of the analysts feel that Hafiz Saeed wants to establish sleeper cells and terror camps opposite the desert belt. The intent being to activate another infiltration route to push in more terrorists in order to fulfill his nefarious designs. Another possible reason being attributed is to coerce the Hindus in the area to provide support base to the terrorists. The best option available to Pakistan is to threaten our economic assets, the engine of our development and growth. To reconnoitre infiltration routes for pushing in the terrorists to threaten or hit our strategic assets could be another reason. His visit is also being linked to an earlier visit close to the line of Control opposite the Poonch sector. Immediately after the visit a major incident happened on the loC in which lashkar-e-Tayyeba terrorists supported by the Border Action Teams of the Pakistani Army beheaded two Indian soldiers. It is being assessed that he may be in the area to coordinate a similar BAT action in the Rajasthan border. While the media’s assessment cannot be ruled out and may be likely, I think we are working with a mindset and missing something vital. Is this visit a part of a ‘grand design’IJ
Readers would recall that around the same period a very significant event happened in the war-torn Iraq. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, a dreaded terrorist outfit, announced the formation of an Islamic Caliphate with its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the Caliph with assumed name of Khalifah Ibrahim. The ISIS spokesperson also said that their area of focus is not just Syria and Iraq but the whole world. He further asked the Muslims all over the world to pledge their allegiance to the Khilafah, political and military leader of the Muslims. In his maiden address to the jihadists world over immediately after the announcement of the Caliphate, Khalifah Ibrahim appealed to them to “terrify the enemies of Allah and seek death where you expect to find it. Your brothers are waiting for you to rescue them.” This is the grand design. He gave a peep into the grand design when in his address he explicitly mentioned India as one of the prime targets of ISIS.
As part of the Grand Design, the ISIS wants to carve out an Islamic world dominion. It has also issued a world map of this dream project. In the proposed Islamic world dominion, parts of the North-west India including Gujarat are shown as included in the proposed Caliphate of Khorasan. There is no doubt that India is on the crosshair of ISIS’s grand design. Is it a mere coincidence that around the same time Hafiz Saeed visited Pakistani villages opposite the same areaIJ
Was the visit of Hafiz Saeed part of the grand designIJ I think so. Who is the mastermind behind this visitIJ The name which comes to the mind is that of Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan. Hafiz Saeed has been the front-man of ISI to spearhead terror campaigns against India. Despite being declared an international terrorist he roams freely because of the ISI’s patronage. He has been openly declaring to convert India into an Islamic state. He is considered as a strategic asset by the ISI. It acts as a super agency in Pakistan and is controlled by the Army. The elected Government of the country has little control over it. The ISI pays out millions of rupees every month to fund terrorist activities in India. It is also actively involved in planning and funding terror attacks on Indians and Indian assets in Afghanistan. The ISIS has worked out a different strategy for each nations to execute the grand design. The ISI may well be a key component of this strategy. Thus, connivance between the ISIS and the ISI cannot be ruled out. The other likely player in this grand design is Student Islamic Movement of India.
Some readers may dismiss the prognosis as imaginary. But there is nothing in the realm of impossible when it comes to analysing threats to national security. Each and every scenario needs to be discussed, analysed and prioritised. In the matters of national security one cannot afford to encourage a mindset. No one would understand it better than the NDA Government because it was during its earlier tenure that the Kargil War took place.
“The presence of Pakistani jihadists in the ranks of Syrian and Iraqi militants brings the conflict and Wahhabi Islamist ideology closer to India”, says Seema Sirohi, a strategic analyst. These jihadists have been further bolstered by the Uzbeks, Uyghurs and Chechens who were nestled in North Waziristan and have been forced out from there after the Pakistani Army launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb. We have been the victims of Pakistan-sponsored terror and proxy war for almost three decades now. But we have not till date formulated a comprehensive national anti-terror strategy.
(The author is a retired Brigadier and security analyst)