Despite a win in Gujarat, the battle for the BJP is far from over. The victory is, in fact, a major setback. It is high time the party must do a reality check and introspect. The youth and the rural area have been the worst affected
The Gujarat verdict has raised several new questions even as it answered some of the old ones. Rarely has it happened that a political party is not happy with its electoral victory and this sense of discomfort is not unfounded. With a total of 99 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been reduced to a two-digit figure in Gujarat. This has perhaps been its worst performance since 1995. Most political pundits have viewed the Gujarat result as a warning sign for the saffron outfit rather than a victory. On the other hand, the verdict has been the Congress' best show in three decades.
First, the election result has belied the existence of a hydrogen balloon called the 'Gujarat model of development', which never existed except in propaganda. The election was a reality check of the actual situation in Gujarat — lack of development, increasing public debt, poor health and education, youth unemployment, agrarian crisis and social unrest.
That is precisely the reason why Prime Minister Narendra Modi avoided any discussion on the issues that have been hampering the State's development during his election campaign and tactically shifted the focus on emotional issues. The Prime Minister had also promised that he would give an audit of each penny spent by his Government, but he did not present any performance audit report of his State Government.
The political narrative of the BJP in Gujarat reminded me of Socrates who said that when the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. The Gujarat election campaign was reduced to slander and calumny. Issues affecting the people of the State became irrelevant and Pakistan got the priority as an agenda. The campaign in Gujarat swung between catatonic States and automated responses. The fact that six of the Ministers lost the election is a stamp of disapproval of the policies and service delivery of the State Government.
Second, the verdict has also severely tainted the Prime Minister's credibility not only in Gujarat but also at pan-India level. Prime Minister Modi and BJP president Amit Shah spearheaded the entire Gujarat campaign, addressing a combined 65 rallies in their home State.
Yet, the BJP not only lost some of its top leaders and Ministers but also the Unjha constituency to the Congress that includes Prime Minister Narendra Modi's hometown of Vadnagar. Neither helicopter nor seaplane rides could save the constituency.
Moreover, in 16 constituencies, the BJP won with a margin of less than 3,000 votes. So, the combined outcome has weakened the legitimacy and authority of Prime Minister Modi and Shah. Both are now as vulnerable politicians as any other BJP leader.
Third, lopsided development has resulted in lopsided voting. Though the BJP managed to retain the support of urban voters, rural Gujarat comprehensively rejected the party. This was bound to happen when claims are not in sync with reality. The BJP's loss in rural Gujarat means loss of confidence of farmers, small traders and labourers.
let’s not forget, elections to the States like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which have a large population unlike Gujarat, are due next year. So, the outcome is going to be much worse for the BJP in coming days. Rural distress is an alarming reality and the Modi Government has been a silent spectator to this crisis. Reality is in stark contrast to tall promises.
Fourth, the verdict has dispelled the Prime Minister's propaganda of a leader of the youth. Sixty four per cent of the population of Gujarat are in the working age group but there have been no jobs either in the organised or unorganised sector.
Far from creating jobs, this Government did everything it possibly could to deter creation of jobs. Demonetisation and faulty implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) have resulted in loss of crores of jobs and the youth are the most affected. The euphoria of ‘Start Up India’ too has vanished. They are now looking forward to change and the Gujarat youth have shown the way.
Swagger cannot overshadow the truth forever. The BJP has to seriously ponder on its mistakes on the governance front. The Prime Minister and his Government must come out of election mode and focus on governance. Beyond the numbers, we need to introspect on the loss inflicted on institutions which are the pillars of our country.
First, the election dates were deferred to allow the Government to announce a host of changes in the GST. If election could be held in time in Jammu & Kashmir after floods, why could it not happen in GujaratIJ
Second, the authority of Parliament was undermined by postponing the Winter Session for political interests. There are many instances — 2002, 2007 and 2012 — when Parliament was convened in time despite the Gujarat Assembly election. So, the need to postpone the session was more political than constitutional or conventional.
As if that was not enough, a former Prime Minister and a former Army Chief were dragged into controversy for no reason to score political mileage. With each election, the BJP and the Prime Minister are setting a new normal so far as electoral politics is concerned.
Will anybody remind the Prime Minister the speech of Atal Bihari Vajpayee in the lok Sabha in 1999 that elections come and go but the interests of the country and institutional sanctity are more important than electoral victory or loss. We, Indians are tolerant and patient but not indefinitely against injustice.
(The writer is a Supreme Court lawyer and national media panellist, the Indian National Congress)