While DMK chief Karunanidhi will seek the people’s mandate in May, SAD chief Parkash Singh Badal will try to hold on to power in 2017
Two grand old men heading two regional parties one in the north and one in the south may be bidding for their one last chance in the ensuing Assembly polls to Tamil Nadu and Punjab. While Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief M Karunanidhi’s fate will be decided in May, Parkash Singh Badal of the Shiromani Akali Dal, who is the Chief Minister of Punjab, will be facing the election the following year.
There are several similarities between the two leaders. Mr Badal and Mr Karunanidhi are friends since Emergency days. Both have had long political innings and have been part of the coalitions that ruled at the Centre. Both the DMK and the SAD depend on their leaders’ charisma to win the next Assembly polls. Both leaders have promoted their family members in politics as well as business.
It appears that Mr Karunanidhi will be the chief ministerial candidate as his son and political heir MK Stalin has been talking of the ‘Kalaignar’ rule in public meetings. Moreover, as long as Mr Karunanidhi lives, no one else, not even his son, will have full control.
Mr Karunanidhi may well be the oldest politician heading a party in the country today. He was elected as the chief of the DMK for the 11th time last year. The DMK patriarch is making a last ditch attempt to save the party that he has nurtured since the 1960s and which has been in and out of office for the past 50 years.
As a part of his campaign, Mr Karunanidhi makes daily appearances on his family-owned Kalaignar TV as well as on Sun TV that is owned by his grand-nephew. To resolve a family feud, he has already declared that Mr Stalin, his younger son, will be the future of the DMK.
The Karunanidhi family has maintained its pre-eminence over the elevation of Mr Stalin as the treasurer of the party and daughter Kanimozhi Karunanidhi as the head of the women’s wing. His elder son MK Alagiri has been sidelined. Party insiders do not rule out the possibility of ‘Kalaignar’ handing over the baton to his son after the election.
However, it is not at all a smooth sail for the DMK, which is working against odds for the upcoming election. First, having lost the 2011 Assembly and the 2014 lok Sabha polls, the DMK workers’ morale is down. Second, Mr Karunanidhi is not in good health. Even during his earlier term, from 2007-2011, he was moving in a motorised wheel-chair. Third, Mr Karunanidhi did not develop any second-rung leadership. Fourth, Mr Stalin, who is campaigning hard, is no match for Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa.
Given all this, success for the DMK lies in building a viable coalition, as arithmetic alone can help the party. Realising this, the DMK chief has invited the Congress, with whom the DMK severed its connection in 2013 on the Sri lankan issue. He has also been trying to get other smaller parties like the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam on-board. Also, the DMK has not been able to take advantage of the ruling party’s failures after the rain havoc in December 2015. In a four-cornered contest, the anti-All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam votes might just split, which will help Ms Jayalalithaa. Above all, there is nothing new that the DMK can offer to the voters.
In Punjab, the 88-year-old Badal is the best face for the SAD even as he has been grooming his son Sukhbir Singh Badal. The elder Badal is bidding for power for the third consecutive time and there is enough time for the projection of a chief ministerial candidate. However, preparations have already begun and there are speculations that, if the SAD wins, the baton may be handed over to the younger Badal.
The BJP-SAD regime is facing double anti-incumbency and loss of credibility. There is also some bitterness between the two coalition partners each feeling that the other has become a liability. The combine is unable to propagate the achievements of its four-year rule.
The growing clout of the Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab is also a definite challenge for both the Congress and the SAD-BJP combine. Also, there are allegations of corruption and law and order problems, apart from the drug menace. Both the Congress and the SAD-BJP combine privately admit that the AAP can emerge as a big challenger. In the last Assembly election, the SAD-BJP defied anti-incumbency to win a stunning successive mandate a rarity in Punjab. Can it do so againIJ