The average Indian voter going to the polls this summer will be young and educated. This is a major demographic change in the country’s electoral profile which, in turn, has transformed political discourse
In the frenzy of the forthcoming lok Sabha election, data is being dished out left, right and centre, be it during television debates, political rallies or verbal duels. Though the demographic data about caste and religious composition of a lok Sabha constituency may be getting attention and worked upon by the candidates and their parties, the nature of political discourse has definitely changed.
It is focussed on social indicators, development of infrastructure and growth rates. What could be behind the paradigm shiftIJ One reason could be that as the percentage of literacy increases in the country, the importance of statistics and data increases in direct proportion.
The literacy percentage of India in the 1991 census was 52.2 per cent (64.1 per cent male and 39.3 per cent for female), which went up to 64.8 per cent (male 75.3 per cent, female 53.7 per cent) in the 2001 census 2001 and further increased to 73 per cent (male 80.9 per cent, female 64.6 per cent) in the 2011 census.
There are two features which are heartening. One, the percentage of literacy has risen steadily and two, the gap between male and female literacy rates has reduced from 24.8 percent in 1991 to 16.3 per cent in 2011. In the two crucial States of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which have 120 lok Sabha seats between them, the rise in literacy percentage has been equally impressive.
In Uttar Pradesh, the literacy rate went up from 33.35 per cent in 1991 to 56.27 per cent in 2001, and it further increased to 67.68 per cent in 2011. The gap between male and female literacy reduced from 30.26 per cent in 1991 to 20.1 per cent in 2011.
Similarly, in Bihar, the literacy rate went up from 32.05 percent in 1991 to 47 per cent in 2001 and further increased to 63.82 per cent in 2011. The gap between male and female literacy reduced from 30.08 per cent in 1991 to 20.1 per cent in 2011.
During the 1991 lok Sabha election, when this author was a probationer in Azamgarh, Uttar Pradesh, the pages of Register 17A, where the polling officer takes the signature or thumb impression of voters, used to be replete with thumb impressions. In November 2013, when this author was an observer in Jashpur Assembly Constituency of Chhattisgarh, the pages of Register 17 A were replete with signatures in a predominantly tribal area. Indeed, the pages of Register 17A of a polling station are a great indicator of the status of adult literacy in the country, much like the school attendance registers show the status of child literacy in the country.
The change in the demographic profile of the Indian population has brought young voters in sharp focus. The number of persons in the age group of 18-40 years was 43,53,91,057 during the 2011 census, about 35.96 per cent of the voting population. This is an average of almost eight lakh voters per constituency, which is a sizeable number from an electoral point of view.
This is the age group where the concentration of literate voters is the maximum. The high number of educated youth voters, aspiring for a better life, is causing a generational shift. It is changing the paradigm of electoral discussions and debates.
As literacy is going up, the clamour for good governance and informed discussions is also rising. During the current election, it is seen that professionals are now willing to engage with the political process in larger numbers and are actually entering the electoral fray in a more pronounced manner. This augurs well for democratic politics in the country.
Not very long ago, it was assumed that only those with money and muscle power, belonging to certain castes and communities, could contest elections successfully. Various measures, including the deployment of the Central Reserve Police Force at polling stations and their role in area domination, have enhanced voter confidence and created an atmosphere where people can vote without fear of intimidation.
The steady rise in literacy has yet to impact the voter turnout in any major way. Turnout was 56.73 per cent in the 1991 general election, 57.94 per cent in 1996, 61.97 per cent in 1998, 59.99 per cent in 1999, 58.07 per cent in 2004 and 58.19 per cent in 2009. Therefore, the voter turnout has largely moved in a close range and is waiting to see a quantum jump.
The turnout in six large States — Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat — home to almost 50 per cent of the electorate, was around 50 per cent or less in last few general elections. Surprisingly, the polling percentage of Bihar dropped sharply from 58.02 per cent in 2004 to 44.46 per cent in 2009.
Clearly, literacy alone does not appear to be the sufficient condition for a sharp increase in voter turnout, though it remains a necessary condition. The Election Commission of India, having realised this, has started an awareness generation campaign to increase voter turnout. Parliamentary elections are generally seen as distant from the people. Hence the low turnout compared to Assembly elections. Hopefully, things will be different this time around.
(The author is an IAS officer. The views expressed in this article are personal)