Climate change is a multi-faceted danger which is not only a threat to the existence of this world but which causes large displacement and subsequent conflict triggered by unpredictable natural disasters. Immediate measure is need of hour
The year 2016 bore testament to the fact that extreme weather related events riding on climate change are seriously detrimental for human life. Thanks to rapidly worsening climate change the year witnessed natural calamities of abnormal intensities such as floods, storms, wildfires and tough winter conditions which forced at least one person every second to abandon his or her home.
In fact, nearly 42 million people were rendered homeless globally due to these natural disasters and floods alone which accounted for half of all people displaced by the adversities. The number of affected people on the account of natural disasters is assuming such proportions that it is now more than three times the number of people displaced by conflict and other armed disturbances. These displacements triggered by natural disasters are fast assuming alarming proportions and will continue unless global political awareness and initiative is directed towards the main underlying cause — global climate change.
The trend of displacement due to extraordinary natural disasters and climate change is most acute in East Asia and the Pacific. In China, 7.4 million were forced to leave their homes, whereas the Philippines had nearly 5.9 million people affected and 2.4 million people in India suffered on the same account.
According to studies, South East Asia were the most affected; though China, India and the Philippines have the highest absolute numbers; small island states suffered disproportionately given the size of the population. India’s position to deal with this situation is very challenging — as on one hand, the political establishment is yet to realise the actual gravity of the situation especially regarding the severity of the problem in the near future. On the other, there is an obvious lack of infrastructure and strategic policies that aim to mitigate the onset of such events in the first place. As a result of these problems India is now witnessing a concerning trend where natural calamities are occurring not only with annual regularity but the intensity is increasing with every passing year.
The monsoon floods in the year 2004, occurring between July and October in Bihar displacing nearly 1.6 million people are apt examples of the regularity with which annual fury of the nature is being unleashed on this country. This year it is the turn of the State of Assam to bear the brunt of the worsening climate conditions.
The floods in the beautiful State have wrecked havoc on the citizens having claimed 60 lives, and rendering over 10 lakh people affected and 22,837 people homeless along with countless wild animals and livestock.
It is in these high risk environments that the people on society’s fringe, with economic vulnerability tend to have the lowest coping capacity and fall prey first to the devastating impacts of the natural disasters, in different ways.
As the wealth of the poorest is typically in the form of housing or other physical assets that are easily damaged or destroyed by disasters, such extreme climate events can substantially increase the number of people displaced same of which is being felt in Assam this year.
Natural disasters tend to exacerbate and amplify the existing vulnerabilities and fault lines within the population — for instance, the people with economic vulnerabilities living on marginal land and in poorly constructed housing are disproportionately affected by floods, earthquakes, landslides and coastal and riverine erosion. Those who are less physically mobile, such as young children, elderly people and those with physical disabilities may find it difficult to evacuate quickly leading to an unfortunate increase in human toll.
In the backdrop of such difficult situations, the incidence of armed conflicts over scarce resources was only waiting to happen and has already begun.
According to studies, 23 per cent of the armed conflicts and ensuing displacements were linked to climate disasters. Droughts in Syria and Somalia indicate that climate calamities may have already contributed to sustained conflicts in these regions. As climate disasters affect access to food and livelihoods, the potential for conflict over scarce resources and displacements increases rapidly.
Given the fact that catastrophic climate events are likely to increase in severity and frequency in the future, more initiative will be required of all the stakeholders globally and especially in India.
India must develop and strengthen legislative and policy frameworks to prepare for and respond to disasters and climate change. Efforts must also be made to enable international aid organisations to continue their positive supportive role besides also strengthening the community-based initiatives.
Civil society organisations and environmental groups on the other hand must play a key role in raising awareness of the issues and mobilising both community and Government actions.
If left unchecked, natural disasters triggered by climate change may create two billion climate refugees by the end of the 21st century. This trajectory can be altered with the help of climate change mitigation measures such as Paris agreement and fossil fuels being replaced by low-carbon energy sources etc.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)