As Russia wants to intensify its economic cooperation with Asian countries in the wake of Western sanctions, Putin may give a major thrust to India-Russia bilateral trade & investment, particularly in the field of energy
India-Russian bilateral relations are set for a major reinvigoration as President Vladimir Putin visits India on December 10-11 for the 15th annual bilateral summit. This process can be expected to be fast-tracked under PM Modi’s leadership as the summit provides an opportunity to outline a bold vision and roadmap for their relationship in the years ahead. Russia is looking to intensify its economic cooperation with Asian countries in the wake of Western sanctions over the Crimea developments. One can expect a major thrust to India-Russian bilateral trade and investment, particularly in the field of energy.
Against this background, there are excellent prospects for India-Russian relations to reach a new high. Ties are already superb and characterised by a “privileged strategic partnership.” The shift of attention to regional problems creates preconditions for their further development.
On the sidelines of the BRICS summit, Modi conveyed his sincere appreciation and admiration for Putin’s decisive leadership in deepening and expanding the India-Russia special and privileged strategic partnership. The Prime Minister further expressed deep appreciation for Russia’s friendship and unstinting bilateral and international support for India’s economic development and security since the early days of India’s Independence. Modi also reaffirmed that relations with Russia will continue to enjoy the priority that they always had in India’s foreign policy.
In the wake of BJP’s stunning victory in the general elections, Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted that he was ready to work closely with the Narendra Modi-led Government to strengthen strategic ties and security.
In the next five years, Russia could do much to contribute to the implementation of a number of India’s geopolitical aspirations. UNSC reforms and India’s accession as a permanent member are long overdue. It is also necessary to overcome all barriers on the way to India’s transformation into a full member of the regional associations such as APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
While Russia has grown increasingly close with China, India still distrusts China due to an unresolved border dispute and rivalry over influence in Asia. However, China has recently begun to reach out to India because, like Russia, it believes that a truly Asian bloc is only fully possible with India’s cooperation. China has made the first move by inviting India to attend the APEC summit in Beijing, this November, one-upping the US.
Russia is seen as a time-tested friend and has never fomented trouble for India through its neighbours. Besides this, Moscow is a reliable supplier of defence technologies that has been denied to India under various US-dominated control regimes. Moscow also appreciates New Delhi’s stance on various issues that have bearing on Russia’s long-term interests. In the recent case of Ukraine, India expressed understanding of Russia’s national interests in Crimea and refused to join the Western sanctions.
Shortly after Crimea’s annexation, Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh visited Beijing and Moscow for consultations, signalling New Delhi’s unwillingness to get involved in the West-Russia row over Ukraine. However, not everything is smooth and perfect in bilateral relations, spanning from high up in space to deep oil wells.
Against the backdrop of excellent — as claimed by the diplomats — political and defence relations, economic cooperation and trade are weak pillars of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Bilateral trade for many years has wobbled around $10 billion. Modi, whose native State of Gujarat has benefited from the growing trade of rough diamonds and gas from Russia, will seek more opportunities for investments in Russian diamond mining and hydrocarbons.
The West’s desire to punish Russia through sanctions could be a boon to Modi’s India. India had a thriving trade relationship with Moscow when the ex-USSR was under Western curbs and sanctions. However, just four days ahead of Putin’s visit, India on Friday explicitly made it clear that it will not support any sanction against Russia.
Another matter of concern for the Modi Government would be the quality of Russia’s arms trade with China. India is obviously envious of Moscow’s growing bonhomie with Beijing. However, the export of sensitive defence technology to China by Moscow could have an adverse impact on the national security of India, as Russian military technology would eventually reach Pakistan via China.
Modi’s BJP has declared a goal of obtaining self-sufficiency in defence, but for Russia to retain its lead in the Indian arms market will require reformatting the future military-technical cooperation with India along the lines of the BrahMos cruise missile joint venture and joint R&D and production of weapon platforms like fifth generation fighter aircraft.
Stability in Afghanistan, Central Asia, non-proliferation, and anti-terror combat will also continue to remain the issues of closest cooperation between New Delhi and Moscow, especially in view of United States pull-out from Afghanistan.
For over five decades, India has been largely dependent on Russia for its military preparedness. But the warmth and vibrancy in the time-tested and very cordial India-Russian ties is somewhat evaporating. India’s growing clout in the international community and the fast changing geopolitical matrix has pressed New Delhi to further cement its relationship with Washington and other Western nations, which are willing to offer what Moscow is increasingly failing to deliver — high precision sophisticated weaponry at relative cost.
The delay in transforming the modified Kiev-class aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov into the INS Vikramaditya and its exceeded cost has badly hurt Russia’s reputation. Though, India had not sought fines from Russia for the inordinate delay in supplying Gorshkov, which was handed over to the Indian Navy last year, this failure has deteriorated the India-Russian military ties. Russia’s recent offer to sell Mi-35 attack helicopters to India’s arch-rival Pakistan has further dealt a major blow to the Indo-Russian ties.
Further, series of crashes involving mostly Russia-made MiG 21 and MiG 29 fighter jets, a slew of kickback allegations, procurement delays have marred Government’s efforts to upgrade its armed forces. There is a growing urgency in India to upgrade its Soviet-era military weaponry to counter China, which has forced it to look beyond Russia.
Another big factor, which has compelled New Delhi to weigh more options is the willingness shown by the Western countries to offer latest technical know-how along with the clause to co-develop and manufacture high-tech defence equipments in India to which Moscow never agreed until recently.
(The writer is doing post-doctoral research in Russian studies)