Since the break-up of the Soviet Union, the Eurasian game is in a fluid situation. India, because of its civilisational linkages, can engage itself more positively with this landmass to ensure security, stability and development
The geopolitical structure of Eurasia is in a state of “perpetual flux” for the last 25 years. China’s entry to the Eurasian space through its economic and political clouts, Russia’s growing desire to bring the other states of Eurasia under its “sphere of influence”, Western powers’ slow but steady movement in this geopolitical space and geopolitical developments in Afghanistan, are explicitly or implicitly changing the rules of the Eurasian geopolitics. These trajectories are providing additional challenge to India’s foreign policy as how it can “re-calibrate” its policy move in the light of these strategic developments taking place in this “space” known as “heartland” — a term coined by British geopolitical thinker Halford J Mackinder.
After the end of “Afghan dilemma” (In the aftermath of the overthrow of Taliban from power), there is a unanimity of opinion among the experts that Eurasia will stabilise and the growing penetration of external powers into this region will diminish. However, if one looks at the current developments that are taking place in this region, instead of stabilisation, new conflicts are emanating in this region. Geostrategic complexity of Eurasia following economic sanctions on Russia and subsequent bailout by China through multi-billion dollar energy deals is changing the “strategic map” of Eurasia to a great extent. Though the energy deals helped Russia bailout its economy, it substantially altered the bargaining capability between these two powers. Russia is wary of the way China is penetrating into Central Asia. The Chinese intention was manifested when Beijing took some extra efforts to garner the energy wealth of this region. The Turkmenistan-China pipeline network, Kazakhstan-China energy pipeline projects as well as its sway in the Siberian energy sector of Russia are some of the examples in this regard. On different occasions, the native Central Asian leaders are often projecting China as an alternative to Russia in this region. Chinese policy was manifested clearly when Prime Minister li Keqiang recently visited Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. While in Kazakhstan, Keqiang focused on revitalising the economic partnership programme with Astana and in Bishkek he focussed on the means to curb terrorism. In recent years, China is also pleading for greater cooperation with the Russian initiated Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) by forging partnership with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). However, what needs to be underlined here is that how the Russian leadership is appreciating the Chinese “expansionist” policy in its own “soft underbelly”.
Though there is a sense of “partnership” between these two states in Central Asia but once the prices of energy go up it may contribute to the escalation of conflict as Russia will seek a greater leverage of Central Asian energy. As reported in Eurasian News, Moscow played a vital role in ensuring supply of Uzbek gas to Bishkek after the latter joined the EEU. Resuming gas supply to Kyrgyzstan by Uzbekistan after the deal significantly affected latter’s supply to China. This may hamper smoother energy relations between Tashkent and Beijing. The recent visit of Turkmen President to Moscow helped augment bilateral relations between these two states. Now, Ashgabat is keen on reviving energy relationship with Moscow. For instance both the parties are mulling to complete the “Caspian gas pipeline project”. Similarly, with Kazakhstan, Russia is inching closer to rescue its strategic relations which went into “rough weather”. During the recent visit of Russian President to Astana both the sides agreed to upgrade their strategic relations to a new height. Russia is also keen to revive energy relations with Kazakhstan. The EEU is giving teething pain to Russia’s economic relations in the Eurasian space. Just to demonstrate its military capability. Moscow, under the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in April, conducted its military exercises known as “Search 2016”, and in September “Rubezh 2016” exercises. These developments demonstrate that Russia is keen to gain its “lost space” (Central Asia) even though it conceded this space to China for the time being. Moscow’s relations with Beijing can be located at two levels. At the global front, Russia needs China, to “rebalance” America which is in mood to “encircle both” and at the Eurasian region in the “longer run”, Russia wants to contain China.
America is keen to “reorient” its relationship in this landmass by investing in energy sector. The proliferation of ISIS menace in Eurasia is posing a threat to the security of this space. This is providing additional incentives to Russia and Central Asian states along with the USA to fight the dogmatic forces. It has been argued by news reports that both American President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Putin will adopt a pragmatic approach in combating radicalism and extremism both in Syria as well as in Eurasia.
How will these developments have an impact on IndiaIJ Using its “historical connectivity” with this part of the world, New Delhi is strategising its economic as well as strategic partnership with this region. In the energy sector, despite Chinese penetration, India can make its presence felt in this region. As reported, Indian energy conglomerates recently got a substantial stake in the Eastern Siberian energy sector. Similarly, as reported in newspapers, both India and Russia are mulling a long pipeline from Siberia to India. The joint proposal to this project got the necessary sanctity when President Putin visited India recently in October. In addition to this, India is having stakes in Kazakhstan, planning to invest in Turkmenistan and got minor share in BTC pipeline project. One area where India and Eurasian states can cooperate with each other is to fight the menace of radicalism. The visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the five Central Asian states last year as well as to Russia has contributed to the strengthening of strategic relationship with this landmass.
However one point that requires closer attention is the way Russia is mending fences with Pakistan. Islamabad is known for sponsoring terrorism which in turn is causing instability not only in South Asia, but also in the adjacent Eurasia. Similarly, China is also directly or indirectly supporting Pakistan’s radical activities just to promote its own strategic goals. The Gwadar port, which was opened recently and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is helping Beijing achieve its desired goals of “economic dominance” and “strategic hegemony” in Eurasia.
Since the break-up of the USSR, the Eurasian “Shatranj” game is in a fluid situation. India, because of its “civilisational linkages” with Eurasia, can engage itself more positively with this landmass to ensure “security”, “stability” and “development”.
(The writer is Assistant Professor, CRCAS, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)