Indian companies can begin cooperation on renewable energy systems initially in cities like Kabul and Heart, which enjoy relatively better security presence. Based on responses received and evolving security conditions, the scope of these companies can be gradually expanded to rural areas in phases
The month of August 2015 has turned out to be a proud moment for India-Afghanistan bilateral relations. A Business Standard report on August 9, 2015, suggested that India is close to operationalising the Salma Dam project in Afghanistan and a contiguous power plant that is capable of generating 42 MW. The project located in north-western Afghanistan is expected to play a crucial role in Herat’s future development. Completion of this project will be a major achievement for India’s energy diplomacy in the region. Cashing on the success and goodwill generated through the Salma Dam project, it would be worthwhile for the two countries to deepen the scope of energy cooperation by exploring similar projects. As reported in the National Radio Television of Afghanistan on November 20, 2014, the then Afghan Minister for Energy & Water claimed that the country has hydropower potential worth 23,000 MW. Along with hydropower, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report quoting findings from National Renewable Energy laboratory, the USA, has suggested that Afghanistan’s solar and wind-based energy systems have the technical potential to generate 220 GW and 66 GW respectively.
Given this potential, India must make efforts to gradually expand its energy footprint in the war-torn country. Given the positive precedent set forth by India, the Afghans would be more than happy to see greater Indian involvement in their energy sector. Recently, The Hindu Business line noted on August 6, 2015, that the current Minister for Energy and Water of Afghanistan has evinced interest in greater Indian participation in their energy sector. The social benefits resulting from such energy cooperation at grassroots level is well enunciated by Martin Wright in his piece in The Guardian on July 6, 2012, wherein he highlights the efforts of Germany in helping build six “run of the river” projects in Afghan towns and villages.
A few years ago, the US Department of Geology published its findings claiming the presence of abundant minerals in Afghanistan that can substantially improve its economy. A report in live Science dated September 4, 2014, quoted scientists who indicated that in order to develop a mineral extraction industry in Afghanistan, energy availability would be an essential requirement. To support this industry, an ADB report mentions that the Afghan Government has already started involving foreign companies to build thermal power plants adjacent to mineral ore sites.
Taking advantage of this situation, policy planners in Kabul and New Delhi must explore possibilities of pursuing more hydropower and renewable energy projects. Indian hydropower companies have already demonstrated their ability in the development of hydropower in Bhutan and to a certain extent in Nepal. Apart from its energy security benefits, Ambassador Dinesh Kumar Jain observed in his distinguished lecture at IIT Mandi that Indian-assisted hydropower projects also generated “tremendous goodwill” for India in Bhutan. In a recent study for South Asian Network for Economic Research Institutes (SANEI), undertaken at National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore, it has been advocated that the Indian hydropower development model in Bhutan can be replicated in other neighbouring countries, albeit with tailor-made models keeping in mind local conditions. Taking cue from this study, India can help develop additional hydropower plants of different scales in Afghanistan to facilitate regional energy access within the war-torn country.
Secondly, along with mega hydropower projects, India must simultaneously focus on developing the renewable energy sector in Afghanistan. Cooperation in the renewable systems such as solar power plants can substantially increase the per capita consumption of energy in average Afghan households. Moreover, from the perspective of public diplomacy too, an expanded Indian presence in Afghanistan’s renewable energy sector can pay rich dividends due to its potential in reaching out to the population directly.
But, despite the commercial rationale for cooperation in the energy sector between the two countries, the fragile security and political conditions on ground are bound to pose significant challenges to Indian assistance. To overcome these obstacles, it would be pertinent to look at an argument presented by Dr Hippu Salk Kristle Nathan in his December 13, 2014, Economic & Political Weekly paper. He argues that before extending the scope of solar energy systems to rural areas, it will be advisable to test the technical and operational efficiency of solar power plants in cities. Apart from its operational merits, this argument can also be a useful guideline for Indian companies for their organic market expansion in Afghan energy sector. Given the evolving security situation in Afghanistan, Indian renewable companies must adopt a wait and watch approach. Taking cue from Dr Nathan’s research, on a pilot scale, Indian companies can begin cooperation on renewable energy systems initially in cities like Kabul and Heart, which enjoy relatively better security presence. Based on responses received and evolving security conditions, the scope of these companies can be gradually expanded to rural areas in phases. Additionally, it will also be imperative for Indian companies to ensure timely deliveries of solar power equipment to Afghan households, create necessary infrastructures like service centres, and train personnel to ensure continued sustenance of such energy initiatives.
(Sanket Sudhir Kulkarni is a doctoral Candidate at National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru. Ashok K Behuria is a Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)