China dreamt of becoming a potential global power, likewise, India must develop its own desi model to handle growth
Asian countries have many commonalities. Pan-Asia, there is great belief in the values of family system — it transcends geographies and ethnicity. The list can be long. Similarly, there are a number of common problems.
There is problem of terrorism in many parts of Asia, including China, India, the Middle East, South East Asia etc. Notwithstanding these constraints, some countries have their lenses clear while others are still groping in the dark.
One of the common problems in Asia is population. Consider the following figure. India has approximately 1,225 million people. China has approximately 1,343 million people. It is estimated that India adds 28 million people every year. On the other hand, China adds only 17 million people. like many other things, India’s population policy predates China. However, by present estimates, India will overtake China, in population, by 2045.
The crises of monsoon, irrigation and agriculture are not autonomous variables. There are other variables too. The present Government is talking much about eliminating black money and expanding revenue collection. That is how it should be.
The facts of the case are: less than three per cent of India’s population actually pays taxes. It is estimated that less than six per cent of India’s population are permanent account number (PAN) card holders. By another estimate, 93 per cent of the work force in India is working in the unorganised sector.
The media, with huge alacrity, talks about Indian business. There is nothing wrong with that, but the fact of the matter is that fundamental changes which should have taken place are still awaited.
There is a good report on select implementation of technology. That is welcome, but what is required is a serious re-look at the paradigms which determine domestic priorities; lines of foreign policy and international investment.
All of these have strategic overtones. Reference to China may be in order. Indian scholarships and research has still to come to grips with the significance of China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ policy which was initiated in March 2015.
Economically, it is a grey area. Many Chinese scholars do not expect re-payment of 80 per cent of loans to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. The repayment on other ‘One Belt One Road’ project loans would be between 30 per cent and 50 per cent. It is apparent that this burden is being accepted as a conscious choice. For this, the advantages that China would get are non-economic, including strategic and diplomatic.
Clearly, the ‘One Belt One Road’ project is based on a paradigm of the aspiration of a great power. A student of Chinese history may recall in this approach and echo of the Middle Kingdom status of the Chinese evolution. The aspiration of China to dominate Asia and its surrounding seas and oceans would be apparent to many.
A sub clause in making is that of China casting significant influence on the less-developed parts of east Europe. The recent experiences of China’s reaction to Hague court of Justice on matter related to the South China Sea are a definite pointer on the aspirational contours of China.
The purpose here is not to eulogise or condemn China. The purpose is to focus on learning by observance of analogies and approaches from which some models can be drawn.
If India has such an approach well indexed, it is still to surface in the public domain. However, one must hasten to add that there is a refreshing beginning of the realisation that it cannot be ‘business as usual’ for India.
China’s method of dealing with internal resistance movements may or may not be worth emulating but it certainly needs observation and analysis. Here one is not talking just of Tibet but also of Chinese Provinces where ethnic descent is both about armorial strength and also drawing strength from beyond.
Some scholars working on the index of power potential have come to the conclusion that China became a potential great power around 2009 when its economic power exceeded 25 per cent of what was with the US. By 2015, it had grown rapidly to an estimated 42 per cent, according to such index.
The One Belt One Road doctrine and plan is the seed bed of Chinese economic worldview with strategic tentacles. India needs to be alert to developing its own desi model of handling growth linked with internal stability and external networking.