The longest ever campaigns of all four parties are indicative not just of their own survival instincts, but also the opportunities that the Uttar Pradesh election offers them. It will determine how they position themselves for 2019
At no time did Uttar Pradesh witness so many stake-holders fighting for their prestige as in the 2017 Assembly poll. Stakes are indeed high for them and their parties. It is a fight for survival for the two regional parties, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a battle for the Congress to remain relevant, and a test of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) central leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and president Amit Shah. It could be the end of the road for SP patriarch Mulayam Singh and fading away for BSP supremo Mayawati if they fail.
Many believe that wining the State could advance Modi’s chances in the 2019 lok Sabha poll, although one Assembly election cannot be the sole criterion. The Prime Minister has not made a secret of the fact that he will be bidding for a second term at the least. Opposition parties hold that the election will be a referendum on Modi.
linked to this is Amit Shah’s fortunes. The party chief is credited with masterminding the BJP’s stellar performance in 2014 lok Sabha poll when the it won 72 of the 80 seats. Since he is the main strategist, he has a lot at stake. The BJP has not projected any chief ministerial face and is seeking votes in Modi’s name. The party is looking for the upper caste plus Bania — its core vote base — apart from the non-Yadav votes. It hopes that the recent surgical strike against Pakistan and demonetisation, and its social engineering and booth management that worked two years ago, will do the trick. A poor show will not only embolden the Opposition but also the senior leaders in the party who have been sidelined.
The ruling SP, which is bidding for a second term, is equally anxious. There has been a generational shift with Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav taking control of the party last month after an ugly family feud. The SP has gone for poll tie-up with the Congress for the first time; if the gamble works, it could be taken forward to the 2019 poll. But the trick is to keep the Muslim- Yadav vote intact. It is a make or mar battle for the young Chief Minister, who has emerged out of the shadows of his father. If he proves himself, not only will he will emerge as the State’s Chief Minister again but also that his stature will go up in national politics. While the party is seeking votes on the plank of development, deteriorating law and order and lack of governance, are issues. If the gamble fails, party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav will have to reconcile to fading away. The SP and the BSP have been alternating in power for years now, in the process making national parties irrelevant.
Uttar Pradesh is crucial for the Congress also, which had its last Chief Minister in 1989. Party vice president Rahul Gandhi, who has teamed up with Akhilesh Yadav, represents the generational shift in the State’s politics. The Congress is looking for an improvement of its present 28 seats that could boost the image of the party as well as that of Rahul Gandhi, who seeks to emerge as an alternative to Modi and become the glue for opposition parties to unite.
For Congress chief Sonia Gandhi also, it will be easier to hand over the baton. For the third member of the Nehru-Gandhi family, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who has a raised profile after she managed to clinch the tie-up with the SP, it will be a case of testing the waters for her future entry into active politics. The Congress hopes to attract a mix of upper castes, backward class and the lost Muslim votes.
Mayawati is quietly working hard to keep her Dalit vote-bank in tact. She had been a four-time Chief Minister and is bidding for power for a fifth term. If she can trump the father-son duo, she will emerge bigger in the State and national politics. In the 2014 lok Sabha poll, her party got zero seats despite having a 31 per cent vote-share. She had delivered on law and order as Chief Minister, while the SP is known for what she called “jungle raj”.
What she needs is the additional votes of the Muslims and of some upper castes. She has given tickets to 99 Muslim candidates. Disenchanted with the SP, if the Muslims decide to back her, she could even form the Government (if her social engineering works). The BSP is not averse to a post-poll arrangement with any party, if required.
Another leader who is waiting to test his fortunes is Rashtriya lok Dal chief Ajit Singh. As in SP and the Congress, the son (Jayant Singh) is waiting to take over. The party has some Jat votes in western Uttar Pradesh and had won nine seats in 2012. Had the SP and the Congress included the RlD in the alliance, the arithmetic would have been better. Ajit Singh and his son’s future is uncertain.
The longest ever campaigns of all four parties are indicative not just of their own survival instincts, but also the opportunities that the Uttar Pradesh election offers them. It will determine how they position themselves before the 2019 lok Sabha poll.
(The writer is a political commentator and syndicated columnist)