The Delhi election result has lessons for both the loser and the winner. For the AAP, it is about the risk of promising the moon. For the BJP, it is about recognising one’s own. And, for the Congress, it is about revamping top to down
The much awaited Delhi election result has come. It has come as a surprise to even diehard supporters of the Aam Aadmi Party, which swept the poll literally with a broom. While the BJP’s critics have sought to project the outcome as a referendum on the Prime Minister and the nine-month old BJP-led Government at the Centre, the AAP’s detractors have attributed the party’s success to impractical populist promises and have already started questioning as to how the party would deliver on them.
There are also those who blame Delhi’s electorate for falling into the trap of Mr Arvind Kejriwal’s dulcet calls of free water, cheap electricity et al and causing a vacuum in the Assembly by giving a brute, unquestionable majority to the ruling party which would enable the Treasury benches to run roughshod over the miniscule opposition.
In fact, Delhi’s verdict holds lessons for all political parties, the central message being: ‘Don't take people’s mandate for granted.’ Unfortunately, any call for introspection by well-meaning people are trashed by vociferous supporters/Internet warriors who seem to be opposed to any healthy debate on the issue.
Surely, not all of Delhi’s denizens got enamoured by Mr Kejriwal’s promise of the moon. It would indeed be naïve to underestimate the wisdom of the common man. Certainly, not all of them are disillusioned with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that they voted en masse against the party. After all, barely a year back, BJP had bagged all the seven lok Sabha seats at stake in the national capital and recently won the hustings in key States including Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana.
Irrespective of one’s like or dislike for Mr Kejriwal, the fact remains that the man was seen by the people as one who genuinely repented for his mistake of walking out of the Government a year back. Whether sincerely or for pretension, after the debacle in the lok Sabha poll, he stuck to his decision not to contest any poll outside of the capital and concentrated all his energies on his home turf and the cradle of his anti-corruption movement, Delhi. By and large, he also did not indulge in any negative campaign and focused more on past ‘achievements’ and future ‘promises’.
He realised that the people of India did not appreciate when the Congress and the entire ‘secular’ brigade attacked Mr Modi personally both in Gujarat and ahead of the lok Sabha poll — or for that matter, when some BJP leaders had specifically targeted the Congress president’s foreign origins in the 2004 general election.
Nevertheless, there are lessons for Mr Kejriwal as well. To begin with, the new Chief Minister should realise that inspite of being reduced to a single digit figure, the BJP still retains majority of its vote percentage. Since the AAP owes its Delhi victory to the en masse shift of the Congress votes, any Congress revival in the near future, though highly unlikely, can change the electoral calculations.
Further, this floating vote-bank, which had gone to the BJP in the last lok Sabha election, is looking for immediate results. Though the BJP Government is doing spadework at the macro-level, there is widespread perception that the results are yet to be seen prominently at the micro-level. The AAP should know public scrutiny would be harsher in its case since its leaders had painted every other party as evil while they projected themselves as the paragon of all virtues.
Kejriwal & Co should also realise that it would be nothing short of stupidity to believe that their journey to become a national alternative to the existing formations, has begun. Delhi may be a mini-India in terms of demographic profile, but it certainly does not in any way represent the nation in terms of electoral factors, including literacy levels, media exposure, political diversity, vested sectarian interests etc, which play a critical role in the States.
The young Chief Minister would do well to confine the ‘divine will’ he spoke of at his swearing-in, to changing the fortunes of the national capital. In fact, if he nurtures national ambitions, he will have to replicate the Modi Formula by projecting the Delhi Model as a stellar example of inclusive alternative development, much like the Prime Minister highlighted the Gujarat Model in the run-up to the lok Sabha election.
As for the Congress, which has been literally reduced to zero, the freefall continues; and, if not halted immediately with emergency measures, the party can end up in the ICU. The challenge to the grand old party comes not from the BJP anymore, as it may be inclined to think, but from alternative formations such as the AAP and the re-aligned Janata parivar, which are eating into its core constituency.
It must know that while Mr Modi and the BJP may be talking of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ (Congress-free India), it is these alternative combinations which are actually working towards the slogan’s implementation. By not realising this real threat, focusing all its attention on the BJP and strategising accordingly, the Congress is committing a cardinal mistake. The focus should no more be the war at the Centre but the battle for the States.
The BJP, on its part, should not brush away the humiliating defeat merely as the outcome of the delayed election. In fact, as a responsible party, it should view the development as a wake-up call for the entire party and the Government. The fact that its core voters remained with it should open its eyes to the fact that outsiders, neo- converts and new-found friends are neither loyal nor can they deliver.
The BJP has to overcome the trust deficit not with the people but with its cadres and core supporters, who remain loyal to it notwithstanding their neglect. The Congress at the Centre and the communists in West Bengal survived for so long because they penetrated the system with their loyalists rather than having co-opted outsiders. The loyalist knows his survival is tied with the success of the party, whereas the turncoat can switch over at the next available opportunity.
Second, politics is all about perception. The BJP’s strongest point has been its cadre. While technical support can be outsourced, ideological commitment cannot be. While the Prime Minister is reaching out to the people at large through the social media and his radio talks, the cadres are missing at the ground level to listen to and address the people’s mann ki baat.
It is the most appropriate time to play back the promises made in the manifesto, vision document and speeches in the run-up to the lok Sabha poll and honestly assess the words kept and unredeemed, and make a genuine effort to fulfil the unkept ones. People do not always expect the desired results but certainly assess the neeyat (intent). The honeymoon period is over. The choice now is between perceivable delivery and further decline. The BJP has to take a call.