With neither the BJP nor the Aam Aadmi Party seeming near a majority, fears of another hung Assembly remain strong
After almost a year of President’s Rule, Delhi will go to the poll again on February 7. The Delhi Assembly election is crucial for various reasons. The national capital is always important even though it is still waiting to get full statehood. The election is a do-or-die battle for the Aam Aadmi Party. If all goes well, it can aspire to form the Government a second time or, at worse, it can occupy the Opposition space vacated by the Congress.
For the BJP too, the stakes are high, as the election will be seen as a referendum on the Modi Government at the Centre. Delhi was once the BJP’s citadel once but for the past 16 years, it has had to sit in Opposition. It emerged as the single largest party in 2013 but decided to sit in Opposition, allowing the AAP and the Congress to form the Government headed by AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal. But this Government lasted just 49 days.
Since then, the BJP has been preparing to conquer Delhi. Had it opted for polls in last June or July, the party would have swept to power in the wake of the Modi tsunami but it decided to wait. Now, it is not in the same advantageous position as before.
The Delhi election will be the BJP’s toughest test since the lok Sabha election. It will be completely different from the other State Assembly polls that have taken place since May 2014. In Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir, the Congress was in power — either on its own or with an ally facing acute anti-incumbency.
This time in Delhi, the BJP is depending on the Modi magic with no local leader to take on the responsibility. Moreover, the local unit has made little effort to face the election while Mr Kejriwal has made every effort to reinvent his party. Compared to 2013’s three-cornered Congress-BJP-AAP fight, this time it is between the BJP and the AAP. Also, in 2013, the Congress was in the dock as it was ruling at the Centre and in Delhi.
For now, the BJP is trying to convert the campaign into a Modi versus Kejriwal contest while the AAP is trying to keep it as local as possible. The BJP has not projected any chief ministerial face yet. This lack in state level leaders was a problem that the party faced in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir but Mr Modi has been able to handpick a candidate of his choice after the polls.
While the AAP is offering some sops like lowering of electricity tariff, abolition of water charges for the lower segments of the population, the BJP has launched a negative campaign in Delhi. The BJP is also facing the heat from the people because of inflation, the high prices of vegetables and dissatisfaction with President’s rule.
Of course, Mr Modi has spoken of giving 24 hours electricity to Delhi people and also offered the choice of electricity supply companies to consumers but he had remained silent on full Statehood to Delhi. The Congress is shrinking further and this is not good news for the BJP in Delhi. Had there been a three way split, the BJP would have gained but now the AAP has chances of occupying the Opposition space.
The BJP’s calculation that the AAP would sink after Mr Kejriwal quit his Chief Minister’s post has proved to be wrong. The young party not only managed to hold steady but also managed to remain afloat. It has also regained the support of the media.
But it is not all rosy for then the AAP either. If the party fails to make it this time, it may be difficult for it to survive the next five years. The voter enthusiasm has also come down over the past year. Some people have not forgiven Mr Kejriwal for running away from responsibility.
The party has lost the freshness it had in 2013 when people looked at Mr Kejriwal as a messiah and believed in his politics. The party is now struggling for campaign finance as the funds had become dry. The lok Sabha election proved that AAP wanted to spread its wings without preparation. The party is plagued by constant in-fighting and Mr Kejriwal’s vote bank is not intact.
Under this situation, a repeat of 2013, with yet another hung Assembly, cannot be ruled out.