Damocles sword hangs on Jayalalithaa

If AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa thought that troubles for her had come to an end, she must be in for a shock as the Damocles sword is hanging over her head once again. The Karnataka Government has appealed to the Supreme Court, challenging the High Court’s verdict that had acquitted her in the disproportionate assets case. This has put a question mark on the political career of Ms Jayalalithaa. If the apex court quashes the High Court’s ruling, she will be back to square one. 

The appeal has come at a time when the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister is keen to win the Assembly election, scheduled for next year. With this single-minded approach, Ms Jayalalithaa had already begun to concentrate on her administration and had also launched a soft campaign.  Shrewd politician that she is, Ms Jayalalithaa hopes to turn the tide in her favour.

Earlier, Ms Jayalalithaa was automatically disqualified from contesting the election when a trial court verdict had sentenced her to four years imprisonment with `100 crore fine. However, the current appeal may not come in the way of her win as the Supreme Court will take up the case only after the summer vacation.

The Karnataka Government has requested the apex court to restore the disqualification of Ms Jayalalithaa. Its petition called the acquittal a “mathematical error”. It has also pointed out that it did not get enough time to put forth its case before the High Court. The DA case against her was originally filed in 1996. The Karnataka Government came into the picture after the trial was shifted in 2003, to ensure that politics of Tamil Nadu would not influence the proceedings.

Ironically, the two national parties — the Congress and the BJP are wooing the AIADMK for some electoral understanding or tie-up for the Assembly poll. The AIADMK had swept the lok Sabha poll, winning 37 of the 39 seats. The DMK could not even win a single seat. While Ms Jayalalithaa is keeping cards close to her chest, the BJP wants to have some understanding with her. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated her on her acquittal, despite rumors that there the Centre had a hidden hand in her acquittal. The Congress too would like to develop some understanding, as the party had always been piggyback riding on either the DMK or the AIADMK. And now that the DMK is wiped out, it is looking to the AIADMK.

Amidst all this, facing a Hobson’s choice, the Karnataka Government was assessing the pros and cons of going for an appeal . Interestingly, the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee legal cell was of the view that the State of Karnataka was not an aggrieved party as it was involved only in an administrative capacity. Since it had earlier filed a petition claiming that the State had no interest in the outcome of the case, the legal cell felt that appealing against the court verdict now would amount to showing some interest. There were also other political reasons cited against going on an appeal. 

The Congress is on a revival mode after vice president Rahul Gandhi came back from his sabbatical. It has taken a lead in Parliament and has threatened the Modi Government that it will not allow the Monsoon Session to function, in view of the recent revelations made by former IPl chief lalit Modi involving External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje.  

First, the AIADMK is the third largest party in the lok Sabha and has a good number of seats in the Rajya Sabha too. Getting the support of the AIADMK will help the BJP’s cause. The BJP is in a minority in the Rajya Sabha. If the Karnataka Government had supported Ms Jayalalithaa by not going for an appeal, the Congress could have expected the AIADMK’s support to the Congress-led opposition in Parliament.

Second, Congress leaders are in touch with the AIADMK boss and would like to see Ms Jayalalithaa away from the BJP. Third, the State has already spent several crores of rupees on the case and Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah would have been happy to end it. However, after consultations with the party high command, he decided to appeal.

The next few months are crucial for Ms Jayalalithaa’s political career as she must make all efforts to win her case in the apex court. Besides, she has Assembly poll coming. Going by the way our courts function, there is a possibility that the case may drag on for years and she might be able to complete yet another term.