The ongoing Assembly elections could strengthen the regional parties and leave the Congress weaker
Stakes are high for national parties such as the Congress, the BJP and the left, as well as regional satraps in the ongoing Assembly elections to four States — Kerala, Assam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal — and the Union Territory of Puducherry. The Bharatiya Janata Party has never been in power in any of these them. Opinion polls conducted by various poll agencies have predicted a big win for the ruling Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, lead for the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, win or lead for the BJP-AGP alliance in Assam and a clear victory for the CPI(M)-led lDF in Kerala.
The Congress seems to be on the backfoot in both the States — Assam and Kerala — where it is ruling. Assam is the most interesting among all. This is where the BJP is on the upswing. One poll survey has predicted a neck-to-neck race between the BJP and the Congress in Assam. India TV-C Voter prediction shows the BJP ahead. According to an ABP News opinion poll, the BJP-AGP alliance is expected to register a clear victory in Assam. It predicts 78 seats out of 126 for the combine, with 44 per cent vote-share. It says the ruling Congress could end up with just 36 seats and may get 34 per cent votes. The anti-incumbency factor could go against the Congress. However, Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is a good manipulator and in case of a hung Assembly, he could form the Government with the help of the AIUDF, which is expected to do well.
As far as West Bengal is concerned, despite the corruption charges and sting operations against the Trinamool Congress, the party may sail through. Mamata Banerjee is expected to triumph but with a reduced majority. The BJP could improve its position while the Congress-left alliance might do better.
If Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa comes back even with a reduced majority and vote-share, it will be the first time since the days of MG Ramachandran that a ruling party would come back to power. From the nineties, the DMK and the AIADMK have been alternating in power in Tamil Nadu. Two pre-poll surveys, India TV- C Voter and loyala College surveys have predicted her return. Jayalalithaa has the advantage of a split in the opposition votes, a multi-cornered contest and her good work in the relief and rehabilitation area after the unprecedented floods in Chennai. The DMK front, including the Congress, may not do as well as it expects.
Kerala should bring cheers to the left Front as there is a clear prediction that it will form the Government by dislodging the ruling UDF led by the Congress. The UDF and the lDF have been alternating in power in Kerala. A win can perhaps make sure that the left parties will not disappear from the political scene. The left and the Congress have entered into a strange agreement — fighting against each other in Kerala and joining hands to confront the Trinamool Congress in the State of West Bengal.
In Puducherry, incumbent Chief Minister N Rangasamy, who came out of the Congress and launched the NR Congress five years ago, is likely to come back to power. The prediction is based on the last parliamentary elections and current trends. He is depending on his programmes and schemes in building infrastructure projects and also paving the way for free education in Government schools as well as the implementation of the mid-day meal scheme.
The BJP, which saw a slide in 2015, losing heavily in both Delhi and Bihar, is desperate that the Modi magic should continue. If it can improve its presence, that will make it possible for it to reiterate its pan-India status. Incidentally, the BJP has been depressed with the results of the civic polls in all these States. It lost five of the eight urban civic body elections. In Gujarat, the home State of the Prime Minister, the Congress surged by winning 21 of the 31 panchayats. Even in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and West Bengal, the party did not do well.
The regional satraps are keen to ensure their hold on their fiefdom — and by and large they may succeed, including in Puducherry. In short, these elections are a curtain-raiser for the 2019 lok Sabha poll and also whether the Modi magic continues.