The counter-infiltration grid and heavy militarisation have been effective in maintaining peace in Jammu & Kashmir, but they come at a heavy cost. The Government needs to take all parties, including the Hurriyat, on board, and craft a political solution to long-pending issues
Artillery guns and automatic weapons roared again on August 28, along the line of Control in Kashmir and the International Border in Jammu to wreak havoc in India and Pakistan. Inflicting casualties on the enemy’s side and bringing miseries to border residents have become the norm for warring soldiers deployed by both countries to safeguard their territories. Each time blood is spilled, both accuse each other of provocation. Compared to the recent past, the scenario has been particularly bad this year.
This was not altogether unexpected, at least by the residents of Jammu & Kashmir. On August 23, when the much-hyped talks between the National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan, Messrs Ajit Doval and Sartaj Aziz respectively, were called off at the last minute, people in Jammu & Kashmir started preparing for the pits. They knew that the borders would turn hot and encounters between the militants and security forces would escalate.
A day before the latest border skirmish, a prolonged encounter culminated in a mountain ridge along the Uri-Rafiabad belt of north Kashmir. Four lashkar-e-Tayyeba militants were gunned down while the fifth, Sajjad Ahmad (22), a resident of Balochistan in Pakistan, was captured alive. He is the second Pakistani militant who has been captured by the Army after a gunfight. On August 5, Mohammed Naveed Yakub, now in custody of the National Investigation Agency, was captured after he attacked a Border Security Force convoy in Udhampur, killing two soldiers.
There have been around 260 ceasefire violations by Pakistan since January this year. Around a dozen civilians and several soldiers have been killed. Pakistani Rangers even targeted Indian soldiers with sniper rifles — the latest such incidents took place in the Nowgam sector of Kupwara on August 25, when a Junior Commissioned Officer was killed.
Kashmir remained at the centre-stage in the high drama that culminated in the cancellation of the NSA-level talks. Be it Indian insistence on sticking to the engagement over eradication of terrorism or Pakistan’s focus on ensuring Kashmiri separatist leaders a prominent place within the conflict resolution process, issues related to Kashmir became the stumbling block. Worse, the two countries exhibited no flexibility and stuck to the pre-conditions and ultimatums to truncate the process.
Interestingly, by avoiding the mention of Kashmir in the declaration endorsed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in Ufa on July 10, both the leaders had put the future of India-Pakistan engagement on a weaker ground. While Mr Modi’s BJP celebrated the ‘achievement’ back home, Mr Sharif was hauled over coals in Pakistan for ‘acquiescing to Indian diktats’.
Mr Aziz’s insistence on meeting the separatist leaders in New Delhi ahead of his meeting with Mr Doval was a calculated move to offset the notion that Pakistan was not interested in discussing Kashmir. Pakistan even attempted to keep the NSA talks on, while discussing Kashmir sideways. To reserve the NSA conference exclusively for discussions on terrorism, a meeting between Foreign Secretaries of the two countries had been proposed ahead of the Aziz-Doval meet, but that could not materialise.
On the face of it, Kashmiri separatist leaders regained relevance when Mr Aziz insisted on meeting them in New Delhi. To counter this, the Union Government challenged the locus standi of the separatists and decided to frustrate any attempt to promote them to the ‘third party’ status. This scenario has a definite fallout on the internal situation in Kashmir. Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj avoided a direct answer to the question: If talking to the Hurriyat leaders is taboo now, was it a mistake by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee regimeIJ She only said, “Jo beet gayee, so beet gayee”, (what has happened in the past should be in the past). This is indicative of the Modi Government’s approach towards the Kashmiri separatists.
On the ground, most separatist leaders’ movements are curbed. They are often confined to their homes, and on crucial occasions, put under preventive custody. The Mufti Mohammed Sayeed-led PDP-BJP Government in Jammu & Kashmir is following the directions from the Centre on separatists, though in its Agenda of Alliance, it had specifically promised to initiate dialogue with all the stakeholders, including the Hurriyat Conference, to resolve issues related to Kashmir. The re-arrest of Masarat Alam in April, the continued house arrest of Syed Ali Shah Geelani and curbs on the movement of other separatists including Mirwaiz Umar Farooq indicate that the Mufti has been asked to follow certain red lines.
This situation cannot be without consequences. For many years, communication lines with the Hurriyat leaders helped the Union Government offset the influence of militants on the ground. The Hurriyat leaders indirectly helped the Government tide over serious situations at various points.
In 2010, at the height of the anti-India uprising, it was Geelani’s appeal that stopped arsonists targeting police stations and official buildings. A section of separatist leaders dared to take positions against the militants when it chose to engage with New Delhi in 2003. They were targeted with grenades and bullets. This engagement was one of the reasons for the decline of militancy in Kashmir.
But now, the situation has taken a new direction. Almost all separatist leaders have toughened their approach and are yearning to get closer to hardliner Geelani. The number of militants is also increasing. During this year’s first six months, 34 Kashmiris joined the militant ranks, mostly in southern districts of Pulwama, Anantnag, Kulgam and Shopian, according to police estimates.
Burhan Muzaffar Wani, the young divisional commander of the Hizbul Mujahideen from Tral, has become a cult figure. His video, shot along with 10 armed youngsters, all donning Army fatigues, went viral after its August 25 release. Incidentally, he released his first video message in Al Qaeda style: Flanked by two young militants brandishing AK rifles, Wani vowed to fight for the establishment of a caliphate in Kashmir.
No doubt, the counter-infiltration grid has been effective and heavy militarisation in the hinterland does not allow a free-run to an estimated 170 to 180 militants in the State. But, military presence and bellicose environment have its own negatives. These factors lead to perpetual disillusionment that has the potential for sudden eruptions. It highlights the need for political engagement leading to settlement of issues, rather than choking the lines of communication.