Though the BJP could not secure a win in the Assembly election in 2012 in Uttarakhand, the party is now playing its cards carefully and wisely. With an obvious Modi wave, it has a chance to capture all the lok Sabha seats from the hill State
Although Uttarakhand is not a major player on the election scene of India, as it sends just five MPs to the lok Sabha, but from the point of view of throwing political tantrums and drama it is not far behind the bigger States or political parties. Elections in India have not only become interesting by the frequent mud-slinging, use of filthy and unparliamentary language used to attack one another and other variety of events, but also due to the flight of leaders from one party to the other. The Aya Ram Gaya Ram politics has affected all States, and Uttarakhand is not an exception. The alacrity with which leaders leave one party and join the other not only surprises the general public but also shows how mercurial the temperament of the candidates can become if their political aspirations are not fulfilled.
Political calculations have put pressure on and affected the process of selection of candidates in the State. This can be gauged from the delay in announcement of the list of candidates by the two national parties as well as other parties of the State. Even the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party have not issued their final lists for Uttarakhand. The AAP has so far declared the name of its candidate for the Almora lok Sabha seat, but is taking time to declare the rest.
The BJP is already facing a revolt-like situation with the resignation of Bachhi Singh Rawat, a seasoned and influential leader and a former Union Minister of State, from all party portfolios, due to what he says is the indifferent attitude of the party towards his concerns and for ignoring his claim to a seat from the Nainital parliamentary constituency. Actually, besides the three former Chief Ministers of the BJP — BC Khanduri, BS Koshyari and Ramesh Pokhriyal ‘Nishank’ — who are aspiring for tickets from Pauri Garhwal, Nainital and Haridwar parliamentary constituencies respectively, there are many other old-timers who have staked their claim on these seats, making the BJP uneasy.
It is not a different ball game for the Congress either, as it is also finding difficulty in finalising its list of candidates. The party is undergoing a tumultuous phase in Uttarakhand because of a leadership change in the State just before the lok Sabha election, which saw the removal of Mr Vijay Bahuguna and the induction of Mr Harish Rawat at the helm of affairs. Though the change in leadership took place because of the slow progress in the reconstruction work after the natural disaster of 2013, most Ministers and leaders have been showing open resentment towards the new leader and their newly-assigned portfolios. However the divisions and differences in the Congress and the image of the party in the eyes of the people as being non-serious towards people’s problems, is likely to cost it heavily in the upcoming election.
In Uttarakhand’s history, the role of the two national parties has become important insofar as the State has witnessed a bipolar election contest between the BJP and the Congress. Other parties such as Uttarakhand Kranti Dal, the SP and the BSP could not register an impressive presence in the elections. But, interestingly, the margin of victory and defeat between the Congress and the BJP has always been less than two per cent — particularly, during the 2004 and the 1999 elections. In both these elections, the BJP finished marginally ahead of the Congress. While in 1999, the BJP polled 39.6 per cent of the votes, in the 2004 election it polled 41 per cent votes. Similarly, during the 1999 lok Sabha election, the Congress polled 38.96 per cent votes, and in 2004 it got 38.31 per cent of the votes.
Although the BJP got only 2.67 per cent more votes than the Congress, the margin was enough to allow it to capture three lok Sabha seats: Pauri Garhwal, Tehri and Almora, in the 2004 lok Sabha election. The Congress had won Nainital, while Hardwar went to the SP. But in 2009, with a vote percentage of 43.3 per cent, the Congress captured all the five seats. In this election, the Congress’s vote percentage increased to 43.3 per cent and the vote share of the BJP declined by almost 10 per cent, bringing it to 33.9 per cent. The result was that the BJP lost all the five seats. With 15.3 per cent of vote share, the BSP secured the third place. The other parties got less than 7.5 per cent vote share.
The victory over all the five seats by the Congress in the State was largely surprising for the party, as the State was then ruled by the BJP. The BJP’s loss of all the five lok Sabha seats from a State like Uttarakhand not only reflected the people’s mistrust and anger but also divisions and fractions within the party and among its leaders in the State.
If the 2009 defeat of the BJP was primarily a result of the internal divisions and feuds, the same could turn out to be true for the Congress this time around, as the party is undergoing a similar phase of factionalism and sharp differences.
If the BJP can manage its internal divisions, select good candidates and be able to increase its vote share, all the five seats could well swing in favour of the party in the coming lok Sabha election. Though it is true that the BJP could not secure a win in the Assembly election in 2012 despite bringing Mr Khanduri in and raising the slogan of ‘Khanduri hai jaroree’, now the party is playing its cards carefully and wisely this time around. With the Modi wave seemingly having its effect in the hill State, there is a real possibility that the BJP can capture all the lok Sabha seats from here.
Since the lok Sabha election in Uttarakhand is being contested under the shadow of the natural disaster which shook the State in June last and claimed nearly 10,000 lives, all the parties have to prepare their agenda and manifestos carefully. The Congress initiated a change by bringing in Mr Rawat to address the accusation of official lethargy and in the reconstruction work in the aftermath of the natural disaster, and to also deal with the anti-incumbency factor.
But to secure a victory for the Congress candidates in the five lok Sabha seats under the present political scene of open dissent and dissatisfaction among the party’s leaders, could be a Herculean task even for a shrewd leader like Mr Rawat to achieve.
(The writer is professor of Political Science, HNB Garhwal University, Uttarakhand)