Placing the country's rein in the hands of regional satraps who are pulling in different directions, is not a desirable option
Will the shrinking of the UPA and the NDA give way to a regrouping of political partiesIJ While the past decade has seen the rule of these two fronts, the future seems uncertain as their base is eroded with disenchanted constituents looking elsewhere.
The reason for this erosion is that the national parties have become weak; lack strong leadership and have failed to live up to the expectations of the electorate. The Congress faces severe organisational weaknesses, while the BJP, post-Atal Bihari Vajpayee, battles to fill a leadership vacuum. The simultaneous rise of regional and caste-based parties is yet another contributing factor.
The emergence of strong regional satraps like the Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, BSP chief Mayawati, AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa, Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee and the BJD’s Naveen Patnaik is because they have been able to capture the imagination of the people. They have become increasingly assertive and have broadly held on to their support base.
In States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh, trends indicate that the regional satraps may constitute a significant section of the next Parliament and may become king-makers or even the king. Most regional parties have had an experience of being part of the UPA or the NDA coalition and some like the DMK have been in both.
But what is worrying is that if the UPA and the NDA shrink further, it would mean the rule of a Third Front. This may not be desirable, as past experience has shown they were unstable. The regional satraps, unmindful of national concerns, bargained and blackmailed the Centre to extract what they wanted. Therefore, it is in both the Congress and the BJP’s interest to get their act in place.
The recent public spat between the BJP and the JD(U) on the issue of naming Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as NDA’s prime ministerial candidate has fuelled speculations about the coalition’s future. The NDA has come a long way from a centre-right 24-partner front in 1998 to just about a dozen constituents today.
And it is not the first time the NDA faces a threat. Before the 2004 lok Sabha poll Trinamool Congress, DMK, BJD, National Conference and the lok Janshakti Party quit the NDA on one pretext or the other. The Telugu Desam Party withdrew after the 2004 poll. Since then the NDA has been in the opposition.
If the JD(U) and the BJP decide to part ways, the latter would find it difficult to get allies, as the dominant regional parties which are eyeing minority votes may not support the NDA. How will then the NDA form the Government or find allies to reach the magic numberIJ
It was Congress chief Sonia Gandhi who stitched the UPA in 2004, from which the left parties withdrew support on the issue of US-India nuclear deal.
It is to Ms Gandhi’s credit that the UPA returned to power in 2009. But the Congress-led dispensation has since lost credibility in the wake of various scams, inflation and slump in economic growth.
One of the major things that should worry the Congress is the parting of ways with its major allies like the TMC and the DMK. The UPA today consists of eight allies. Outside support is provided by SP, BSP, and RJD. Allies like TMC, DMK, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and MIM have left the UPA in the past four years. Therefore, the Congress too is in search of new allies.
Although it has a better chance of getting secular allies, the common thing for a large number of regional parties is that their political battle in the States is with the Congress or its partners. For them to support the Congress or to depend on it, means harming their own base. Besides, there is no commonality in the regional block. All of them cannot sit on the same table at the same time.
There is still time for the Congress and the BJP to set things right before the big election. Interestingly, the Congress’s loss does not seem to be the BJP’s gain as it has failed to exploit the anti-Congress wave so far.
Placing the country’s reins in the hands of regional satraps who are pulling in different directions, is not desirable. India needs a pan-national outlook, and only the national parties can provide this.