America has practically admitted through his declaration of willingness to talk to the Taliban the end of its twelve-year-long “war on terror”. But will “diplomacy on terror” workIJ Unlikely.
One of the widely quoted views of Winston Churchill goes like this, “The Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted”.
It appears that the Americans are yet to exhaust all options in Afghanistan. Now they are proposing to have peace talk with the Taliban, the organisation which backed the perpetrators of terrorism against the United States in 2001. In response to the 9/11 attacks, the US had declared its global war against terrorism and now it appears that the circle is getting completed when the ‘war against terrorism’ is being transformed to ‘diplomacy against terrorism.
Qatar would be the place for proposed talks and the Taliban delegation is expected to meet the Afghan and US officials in Doha. There are no preconditions for the talks like cease of operations, etc. After the announcement of the talks the Taliban is found continuing with its ‘routine’ activities. This week four US soldiers were killed in a mortar attack. This incident indicates that are no unambiguous red lines for reconciliation. As for the Taliban, there is no great pressure to renounce violence.
Theoretically, diplomacy could always to be viewed as the best option to resolve any conflict. However, the issue is that, ‘diplomacy at what cost’IJ The idea of negotiating with the terrorist group or a non-State group is not new, but here the question is, ‘Is negotiating with Taliban in the long term interest of Afghanistan’IJ For all these years the US has appointed itself as a crusader of democracy, human rights, women empowerment etc and now they are keen to engage a power having exactly opposing policies.
Does the US believe that the Taliban would cut all its ties with al-Qaida to connect with the US or do they perceive that al-Qaida no longer exists in the post-Osama bin linden period and hence they have no issues in respect of Taliban’s other friendsIJ
It’s interesting to note that the US is keen to compromise with the actor with whom they were fighting a bloody conflict for more than a decade. Has the US run out of other options or is this an act of desperation to bring some form of normalcy in Afghanistan before their proposed withdrawal in 2014IJ Are they devising their policies based on their recent experiences in IraqIJ After the exit from Iraq on December 18, 2011 following more than eight years of illegal occupation, the situation in that country actually appears to have worsened. The US was not successful in finding a solution for mainly engaging Sunni-Shia groups constrictively. They have failed to keep the promise of ending the war and bringing back the normalcy in the country. Naturally this failure could have been one of the reasons for them to look for a ‘Peace and reconciliation’ solution in Afghanistan and probably they believe that one of the ways to do this is to engage Taliban diplomatically.
However, it is important to note that this is not for the first time in history that the US is trying to woo Taliban. Post 1995, since Taliban’s rise as a major power centre in Afghanistan, the US administration had been attempting to negotiate with them on the sly. As per some declassified documents, the US was engaging representatives of the Taliban during the 1990s mainly through the American Embassy in Islamabad. The discussions were revolving on issues like human rights, the prospects of a gas pipeline, drug issues, general security challenges in the region, etc.
Taliban was keen to negotiate basically to get a stamp of legitimacy on their government in Afghanistan at that stage. However, no deal could be cut because of Taliban’s reluctance to part with the al-Qaida and its leader Osama bin laden.
It appears that President Karzai is more confused about the latest US move of talking peace. Just a few days back, NATO forces have handed over official control of nationwide security to Afghanistan’s incipient army. But even now, Afghan forces would continue to get aerial support from the western forces. However, now the situation is such that Karzai government would be fighting the Taliban with whom the US administration is in dialogue.Should the Taliban view the American offer as a victory in their campaign against the current regime in Afghanistan and the western invasionIJ Their long-term interest would be to reclaim back in Afghanistan. Is the US not aware that by emboldening the Taliban through recognition would tantamount to propelling Afghanistan back to the stone ageIJ Is the US overlooking the reality of Pakistani Taliban and their ongoing activitiesIJ Is the US of the view that it can have Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Taliban’s operative in these states on the same page and live in harmonyIJ In reality, is it possible to realise a post-2014 peace in the regionIJ
Those questions only confirm the theory that America is still stuck on the crossroads insofar as Afghanistan is concerned. Only time would tell if the proposed ‘talking peace with enemy’ policy offers any dividends or not; or whether just to gain a tactical advantage the US is making a strategic blunder.