China’s aggressive policies and posturing in the open seas, from the Indian Ocean region to the west and central Pacific Ocean, is a matter of concern. It has already irked the US and made several south-east Asian nations extremely anxious
China’s confrontational stance on the East China Sea and the South China Sea, its maritime claims on small and uninhabited islands and coasts of Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and the Philippines, its tactics of salami slicing to gradually grab the small islands, its Maritime Silk Road initiative and aggressive projection of Naval power, not only indicates its intentions of becoming a major maritime power but also makes its neighboring countries anxious.
This has forced the United States to take a fresh look and re-align its forces by an Asian rebalance policy. The US’s attempt has made China believe that it is indirectly provoking these countries to emphatically lay their territorial claims. Contrary to this, the US feels that China, through its aggression, Air Defense Identification Zone over East China Sea and islands managed by Japan, its massive land reclamation in the Spratly Islands aims to challenge the interests of the US.
China’s decision to put multiple warheads into its intercontinental ballistic missiles directed primarily at the US, its increase in the defense Budget by 10 per cent, investment in submarines and warships not only confirms its strategy but also indicates its aims of becoming a maritime power to safeguard its territorial claims against confrontational actions of the neighbors and interference by the US.
President Xi Jinping’s One Belt, One Road initiative and his Chinese Dream, which aims to maintain equality in its relationship with the US, a favourable cooperation with India, a strategic partnership with Pakistan, while building a reasonably prosperous China and leading the Communist Party with firm control, also reflects it.
China’s newly released White Paper on defense which emphasises expanding the Navy’s role and shifting its focus from offshore water defense to open seas protection, also indicates its new and heightened focus on the Indian Ocean. The increasing military budget and investment in the Blue Water Navy signals that China is not going to tolerate the new alignments calmly.
A new cold war in the Asia-Pacific region with deep economic engagement and geo strategic conflict is in the offing because no power wants to sacrifice its economic interests even in a conflictual situation. While the US aspires to fulfill its treaty commitments with its allies such as Japan, it also wants to engage China in a productive relationship. The Obama Administration’s willingness to renew a nuclear cooperation agreement with China, signed in 1985, indicates this.
Though the US is apprehensive about China’s role in transferring nuclear technology to other countries and its aggressive posture in the South China Sea but to safeguard its business interests the US is keen to pursue it. China also understands the value of US economic cooperation for its growth and aspires to avoid differences without compromising its interest but a difference in perception and objective has set the stage for a new cold war and endangering Asian security.
India’s role in this scenario has become important as all the powers are aspiring to develop a good relationship with it. The US is finding a natural convergence between India’s Act East Policy and its own Asian rebalance plan. Defense and strategic ties as well as commerce have become the pillars of the India-US partnership.
Although India wants to maintain its strategic autonomy, the emerging scenario indicates a new and growing synergy as the two countries have launched creative diplomatic efforts to build understanding and enhance coordination across the India-Pacific.
Neither side has claimed that these moves are to counter the Chinese challenge, but India’s Act East Policy and growing friendly relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific indicate a desire to develop such platform. The Modi Government’s outreach to Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri lanka, Seychelles, South Korea, Mangolia, Canada, Australia, Japan and Central Asian countries is significant in the quest for progress, prosperity and security.
China wants to maintain a profitable economic relationswith India but without relaxing its stand on the border issue. During his recent visit to China, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr Xi talked about the need to strengthen mutual trust and keeping the ticklish issues under control and the Memorandum of Understandings signed, signify that India aspires to develop balanced relations with China but there are several irritants like the border issue, Pakistan, Tibet, and the trade deficit.
Pakistan’s recent deal to purchase eight advanced conventional (non-nuclear) diesel-powered submarines from China not only shows a close relationship between the two but also China’s willingness to cooperate with Pakistan to challenge India’s maritime power. China’s support to Pakistan on the lakhvi case in the United Nations Security Council, further confirms their relationship.
The building of a strategic $46 billion economic corridor through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir also confirms that China through encirclement, envelopment and entanglement is not only increasing its strategic presence in Tibet, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and in Indian Ocean island states but also challenging India’s interests by integrating all of India’s neighbors into the Chinese economy.
(The writer is a political science professor at HNB Garhwal University in Uttarakhand)