Changing and extreme weather conditions have led to crop failures, rising farmer debt, and labour migration
Every 30 minutes a poor farmer commits suicide in India (according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture) because of crop failure as a result of increasingly fickle rainfall patterns. According to the Maharashtra Government’s latest statistics, some 257 farmers killed themselves this year alone during a three-month span between January and March.
This agrarian crisis is rising mostly due to drought and bouts of excessive rainfall leading to crop failure, debt and the farmers’ inability to repay agricultural loans. In 2014, severe drought impacted 90 lakh farmers in the cotton belt of Vidarbha district in Maharashtra. Despite all this, however, the challenges associated with the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector have been ignored.
India has an agrarian economy and the agricultural sector represents 35 per cent of the gross national product. According to the Indian Agricultural Research Institute, 85 per cent of the population sustains itself on agriculture-based livelihoods. The UN Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report has concluded that climate change has and will continue to impact the agricultural sector significantly.
Climate change impacts food security of subsistence farmers and also forces them migrate to cities to explore alternative ways of surviving. Small and marginal growers are impacted most severely.
As per the latest Food and Agriculture Organisation report, low latitude and tropical regions will experience drop in crop productivity. Climate change will fundamentally alter global food production patterns.
Variations are occurring due to climate change across India. Apple production in Himachal Pradesh has seen a shift — the apple cultivation belt has now moved from an an altitude of 2,200 metres to 3,000 metres, due to fewer cold days or ‘chilling units’ at lower altitudes.
Tea growers of Assam and Darjeeling in West Bengal are facing a major threat due to erratic rainfall patterns. During April- November 2014, tea export from India dropped 10.43 per cent, according to the Tea Board of India. Price realisation has also fallen to Rs199.24 per kg from Rs207.38 in the fiscal year ended March 2014.
Significant change can also be seen in the spread of montane forests — which are typically colder than lowland climate at the same latitude — in the southern hills of India. In Kashmir, rice cultivators are experiencing dwindling production because of erratic weather conditions.
The consequences of shifts in agricultural patterns need to be understood in the context of existing social and economic complexities in rural economies. For example, migration, due to failure in agriculture, has to be addressed carefully. Weather related shocks are compelling people around the world to move in search of stable livelihoods. In the last couple of decades, weather induced migration has significantly affected the movement between rural and urban areas and added to social costs.
Climatic variance also has geo-political manifestations. Tensions between India and Bangladesh have been aggravated because nearly 12 to 17 million agriculture- dependent Bangladeshis moved to India due to storms, floods and drought.
Small and marginal farmers, and those living on the ecological peripheries, are the worst hit. These farmers are dependent on rain-fed agriculture and slight fluctuations in rainfall can result in major crop losses.
The agricultural sector is marginalised in the national development policy making. Existing challenges for agriculture sector include crafting a climate resilient policy that will help people on the ground. Medium and long term planning on food security is imperative to reduce the risk associated with agricultural output and food systems. Schemes like the National Crop Failure Relief Fund need to be scaled up efficiently.
A robust mechanism to identify weather behaviour, drought and flood patterns, agro-ecological practices, better water management strategies, climate smart agriculture practices, upscaling of innovative livelihood solutions, inclusion of climate compatible trade policies and participation at sectoral and regional level is required for better community empowerment and adaptation.
(The writer is a PhD scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)