Indian politics is too complex to be deciphered through simplistic, back-of-the-envelope calculations. All of us will have to wait, watch and not blink till May 2019
The predominant political narrative these days goes like this: “Narendra Modi's popularity is dwindling, as per surveys and travel explorations of experts. Opposition parties are showing exemplary smartness in working towards creating an anti-Modi front which shall give a tough fight to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Combine this with anti-incumbency and Modi is likely to have it tough in 2019.” Inherent in this narrative is the assumption and assertion that Indian voters are idiots and they vote only on rhetorics. Also, Indian voters will either overlook or dismiss all that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done in the last four years.
I am tempted to offer a counter to an analysis by the very loved and extremely talented Chetan Bhagat, who came up with a fascinating cluster theory in a leading daily this Sunday. He picked up three major clusters comprising of eight Indian States that gave BJP 221 of its 282 MPs in the 2014 elections. With some statistical insights and anticipation, he predicts an 85-seat-loss to BJP in 2019, which shall take its tally to 197. The NDA tally will come down from 336 to 251. The others will take away 292 of the 543 seats of the lok Sabha, and by implication, India is likely to see a non-BJP Government in 2019. Bhagat naturally doesn't believe that the Saaf Niyat, Sahi Vikas theory that Prime Minister and BJP president Amit Shah so passionately speaks of shall work. The 2019 General Election, as per this, will boil down to only statistics.
There are five major factors that could upset this rather simplistic take. First, let's revisit the 2014 results to get more clarity on this veiled argument. There were three major blocs in 2014 — NDA, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and others — getting 336, 60 and 149 seats respectively. The others comprised of 17 parties that were non-aligned including, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (37), All India Trinamool Congress (34), Biju Janata Dal (20), Telangana Rashtra Samiti (11),Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party (9), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (9), Samajwadi Party (5), Aam Aadmi Party (4), All India United Democratic Front (3), Janata Dal (United) and Janata Dal (Secular) (2 each). It is unlikely that all these parties will continue to stand with the anti-Modi bloc barring of course the likes of All India Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Aam Aadmi Party. Both All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Biju Janata Dal have had a history of aligning with BJP and therefore that possibility post or pre 2019 can't be ruled out. It may also be fallacious to expect that BJP's so-called losses — let's say in Uttar Pradesh or Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh or Gujarat — will not be offset by some gains that the party is likely to make in the North East, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and West Bengal.
The second factor is the inherent contradictions in the proposed anti-Modi khichdi coalition. The coalition is full of highly ambitious regional leaders who would find it difficult to gel together and present a coherent and acceptable agenda for the voters to consider. Mere anti-Modi rhetorics of this incompatible political alliance will be difficult to sustain against the solid ‘progressive governance and development' framework that the BJP-led coalition is likely to put forth to the electorate.
Bhagat's arguments also, rather fallaciously, presupposes zero impact of Modi's welfare programmes. And this brings us to the third critical factor. The fact is that some of NDA's flagship programmes including Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY), Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY), Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), Swachh Bharat Mission and a host of progressive measures such as increase in infrastructure expenditure by 134 per cent and road sector programme expenditure by 189 per cent (both from the last year of UPA Government) are yielding ground results and will certainly bring dividends for the party. “Ujjwala Yojana has strengthened the lives of the poor, marginalised, Dalits, tribal communities. This initiative is playing a central role in social empowerment,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said recently.
The fourth important factor is the youth, and Bhagat may have overlooked what young India wants. Across the length and breadth of the country, the youth is endorsing Modi, and approve of his approach and policies. A large chunk of 2019 voters would be the youth who would not get drawn into the regressive caste and religious framework that the anti-Modi coalition will try to hard-sell.
The fifth and most vital factor that will give jitters to the pundits would be the charisma of Modi and enormous organisational capabilities that Shah has demonstrated by winning a series of elections. Modi will continue to sway voters, whereas Shah will ensure the party's organisational strengths are further consolidated to ensure that the BJP continues its winning streak. Indian politics is far more complex to be deciphered through simplistic, back-of-the-envelope calculations. These five points could prove to be the three mistakes of Chetan Bhagat. All of us will have to wait, watch and not blink till May 2019.
(The writer is a strategic communications professional)