To counter the rise of the BJP, the Opposition must work for a common minimum agenda that is acceptable to other parties. Indeed, opportunistic alliances are no substitute for a convincing common programme of governance or for a trustworthy leadership. This may be difficult but not impossible
There is a growing realisation among the opposition parties that their survival is now dependent upon their unity. In a democracy, an effective Opposition is very important. Therefore, efforts are currently going on to unite the non-BJP parties but unfortunately, they are facing road-blocks.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been able to convince the people that he is doing something exceptional. Even after three years, he is able to give an impression although it isn’t all smooth sailing for the Modi Government. It is facing tough challenges over unemployment, incidents of cow vigilantism, unrest and violence in the Kashmir valley, attacks on the backward class, farmers’ suicides, uneasy relations with China and breakdown of diplomatic parleys with Pakistan. But the Opposition has not been able to take advantage of these problems.
So, can the Opposition ever be unitedIJ It had done so in 1977, 1989, 1996 and 2004. In the last lok Sabha poll, the effort to cobble up a united front collapsed. Individual egos, ambitions, regional contradictions and changing equations make a national grand alliance difficult. Although a beginning of sorts has been made recently, in forging Opposition unity, there is still no clarity on the path ahead. On two occasions in recent times it seems to be eluding.
The first was on the presidential candidate and the second was about participating in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) function held at the Central Hall of Parliament last week. On both occasions, cracks were visible.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar was the one first to break the unity move by announcing that his party, the Janata Dal United (JD(U)) will vote for the NDA candidate Ram Nath Kovind, who was also the Bihar Governor earlier. About 17 opposition parties chose former lok Sabha Speaker, Meira Kumar, as its presidential nominee with an impressive show of strength. Meira Kumar, daughter of tall leader Jagjivan Ram hails from Bihar. Similarly, the GST launch saw parties like the National Congress Party, the Samajwadi Party and the JD(U) breaking the Opposition unity and attended the GST launch last week.
However, one of the biggest points of contention is about who should be the face of the Opposition. Except the Congress and the left, powerful regional chieftains dominate most other parties in the Opposition. While there is competition among the regional chieftains like Nitish Kumar, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, NCP president Sharad Pawar and SP supremo Mulayam Singh, the Congress thinks being a national party it should automatically get the leadership.
Opposition disunity is mainly because of the weakening of the Congress and the left. There is leadership crisis in the Congress and the left is losing ground. Even if he is elevated as the party president, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi is not seen as a credible leader who could unite the Opposition. Also, Rahul Gandhi has a long way to go before people accept him as a challenger to Prime Minister Modi.
Second, the absence of a strong alternative makes the BJP rise. It is this TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor, which could help Modi if the Opposition continues to be weak.
Third, Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh summed up the situation recently: “Even a united Opposition cannot take on Modi. Opposition parties have been left with nothing. Their coming together won’t make any difference. It is also because of the fact that the credibility of Opposition leaders is low. As long as Modi’s credibility is intact, the BJP has no reason to worry. It will keep winning elections.”
Fourth, the BJP is claiming the nationalist space, anti-corruption plank, pro-poor agenda and has even appropriated the UPA-sponsored schemes like the Aadhaar and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act. The Congress feels that the BJP is also trying to appropriate Congress leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel and BR Ambedkar.
So, what is the way forward for the OppositionIJ First of all, it should work for a common minimum agenda that is acceptable to other parties. Indeed opportunistic alliances are no substitute for a convincing common programme of governance or for a trustworthy leadership. This may be difficult but not impossible.
Second, the Opposition should change its strategy, as mere demonising Modi is not giving the results. Demonetisation move of Modi is an example. Had it been tackled well, the Opposition could have won the support of the middle classes. But it failed to bring out the flaws in the scheme. It is the same on the cow vigilantism, beef ban and other issues.
Third, the communal/secular plank is not working as the BJP is going from strength to strength for the past three years despite being dubbed as a communal party. The aspirational and younger voters are not interested in this plank. So, unless the narrative changes, the Opposition has no chance.
Third, while a grand alliance is a good idea on paper it is the chemistry, which matters in uniting the Opposition. The egos of most regional leaders also come in the way of unity move. look at what is happening in Bihar where there is already strain between the Chief Minister and the Rashtriya Janata Dal chief lalu Yadav! Common struggle at the ground level and unity of action at the constituency level are the effective tools to forge unity among workers of different parties who have been rivals.
Prime Minister Modi is depending on a divided Opposition as it will not only keep him in power but also enable his return in 2019 poll. Or else, as National Conference leader Omar Abdullah warned, it should be ready to live with the spectre of Modi in power till 2024 at least.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)