The Shiv Sena’s decision to go solo is a blow to the BJP. While the Maratha movement has petered out, the Dalit movement, farmers' woes, lack of jobs and price rise are likely poll issues. A vote-share split may work to the advantage of the Congress-NCP combine, if they come together
After all the bickering, the Shiv Sena has decided to part ways with the BJP. The party passed a resolution in its national executive meeting that it will go solo in the upcoming 2019 lok Sabha and Assembly polls. The two oldest ideological partners have been hurling abuses at each other for the past three years and more. Ironically, on the one hand, the Sena is playing opportunistic politics and wants to continue in the State Government in which it is a coalition partner. On the other, it wants to remain with the NDA. Incidentally, the Sena is the second largest constituent of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre, with 18 members in the lok Sabha. Many expect the Sena to come out of the State Government nearer the polls. Power is the glue and the Sena does not want to give up power in the interim period.
The two partners have had a roller coaster partnership for a quarter century and more. looking at the future, one partner is having a secret affair with the BJP, while the other is wooing the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
Why this break upIJ Ostensibly, the official reason appears to be that the BJP departed from its common Hindutva ideology. The Shiv Sena, launched by Balasaheb Thackeray in 1966, was the first to champion the twin causes of Hindutva and regionalism. The BJP picked up the same Hindutva plank in 1989. It was BJP leader, Pramod Mahajan, who brokered the alliance on the Hindutva plank.
There have been many milestones for the Sena, as its chief Balasaheb Thackeray remained an icon for millions of sainiks, mostly youth, for four decades and influenced the political course of Maharashtra. The Sena saw its peak in the 1990s and formed the Government in the State in 1995 with the BJP as its junior partner. But the next decade saw the decline of the Sena.
During the lifetime of Bal Thackeray, the party split when his nephew, Raj Thackeray formed his own Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. The Sena continued under the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray, the chosen heir of Bal Thackeray. After the death of Balasaheb, the parry lost a charismatic leader. With changing aspirations, the Sena is looking for a new plank, unable to extricate itself from old ideology and adopt a more modern 21st century ideology. The Sena’s strength lies in its cadres and cult like loyalty to Bal Thackeray.
Vibes from the Shiv Sena have been cold ever since the BJP won more seats in the 2014 poll. The Sena was jealous and insecure that the BJP had graduated from a junior partner to a senior partner in the coalition running Maharashtra. The party was not fully supportive of Narenda Modi’s prime ministerial bid. In the post-poll scenario, it shares power with the BJP at the Centre under Prime Minister Modi and in Maharashtra under Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. The party was upset that its representative Anant Geete did not get a hefty portfolio in the Modi Cabinet. It did not like the BJP shaking hands with the PDP in Jammu & Kashmir. There have been many more such complaints which resulted in further cracks. In these 51 years, the Sena has seen ups and downs like other political parties. Its current ambition is to remain relevant in Maharashtra and not cede ground to the BJP.
Second, the relationship between the two parties is not very comfortable, unlike the earlier times when there was perfect understanding between Balasaheb and BJP leaders lK Advani and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Uddhav Thackeray has not let go off any opportunity to criticise the Prime Minister.
Third, the Sena does not agree with most of NDA’s policies, local or national. It has been a key constituent of the NDA ever since the latter was formed in 1998. Yet, there are several issues, including the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Project, the land acquisition Bill, Mumbai Metro line 3 project and beef controversy, where they do not see eye-to-eye. The Sena is upset that the BJP had admitted Narayan Rane, a Congress leader, who was a Sainik earlier. The two parties contested elections in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat separately. It had no impact as they were not able to split the votes.
Fourth, the BJP wants to make Maharashtra its stronghold like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. A major hurdle in its plans is the Sena, which shares its voter base. There are four important parties in the State — the Congress, the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the NCP. NCP leader Sharad Pawar, who is making efforts to form a non-BJP coalition, is delighted that the Sena-BJP will not be fighting together. The urban picture for the BJP is good but not rural. While the Maratha movement has petered out, the Dalit movement, farmers’ woes, jobs and price rise are likely to be poll issues.
Fadnavis wants the State to go for polls with the 2019 lok Sabha poll. If the Congress and NCP come together in the next lok Sabha and Assembly polls, the arithmetic will be different. If the Sena-BJP fight together, chances of getting more seats are bright for both but if they fight independently, their vote share might split to the advantage of the Congress-NCP combine.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)