As the original tech-savvy poster-boy of development stares at a third consecutive loss, he may return to the NDA to remain relevant
Going by his recent moves, Telugu Desam Party supremo Chandrababu Naidu is desperate to gain relevance at the national and State levels. Remembering his golden period in the late nineties, Mr Naidu is determined to become at least a king- maker, if not the king, after the 2014 election. The man, who could be described as a prototype of Mr Narendra Modi, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate, is, understandably, feeling isolated.
In some ways, Mr Modi and Mr Naidu are two sides of the same coin — except that the former has the support of a national party. Yet, it was Mr Naidu who first showed the country how to run a laptop-and-teleconference administration. It was he who perfected the art of self-projection in media and spent crores for this purpose. He also got funds from abroad to transform Hyderabad into the metropolis that it is today. He went from being a backroom boy for the National Front to the convener of the United Front from 1996 to 1998. He was an important supporter of the NDA from 1999 to 2004.
There was a time when the Telugu Desam Party, headed by a man considered to be the most tech-savvy politician of his day, was no match for other parties, especially when it came to mounting a publicity and media relations blitz. Also, from the perspective of Andhra Pradesh, Mr Naidu offered good governance and used his cordial relationship with the Union Government to get developmental activities moving.
However, all this did not help him win elections either in 2004 or 2009. In 2009, in an act of desperation, he got into an alliance with the TRS and left parties in Telangana. But the shrewd Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Rajasekhara Reddy used film star Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party to split opposition votes while inciting anti-bifurcation sentiment in the Seemandhra region to help the Congress come back to power in with an overwhelming majority. With the untimely death of Rajasekhara Reddy in 2009, Mr Naidu thought that his party could return to prominence.
But the rise of YSR’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy has dampened this hopes. Now that Mr Reddy is out on bail, Mr Naidu has more cause to worry — the Congress has apparently an understanding with Mr Reddy on a post-poll arrangement; and, in the Telangana region the Congress-TRS combine is all set for a victory. Where does that leave the TDPIJ
Mr Naidu is now staring at the possibility of a third consecutive defeat in the State. His flip-flops on the Telangana issue have not helped. Some TDP leaders are already planning to move to either the Congress or the TRS. In the Seemandhra region too, TDP leaders are sceptical about Mr Naidu because he hasn’t rescinded his 2009 ‘letter of support’ for bifurcation of the State. This strategy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound is only hurting Mr Naidu’s prospects.
Desperate to remain relevant, the Andhra leader has positioned himself at the forefront every time the idea of a non-BJP, non-Congress ‘Third Front’ has come up. But neither the left parties nor the major regional parties seem to be seriously considering this alternative front. So, Mr Naidu is keeping open his option of returning to the NDA either before or after the 2014 poll even though he had blamed the BJP for his 2004 defeat. But does he want to ride the Modi waveIJ
Starved of members, the BJP-led NDA would like to have the TDP in its fold, especially as it seeks to reconstruct its 90s dream team. Mr Modi even hinted at this during his Hyderabad rally. He is also trying to engineer a patch up between the two Thackeray cousins while seeking to win over Mr BS Yeddyurappa in Karnataka and Mr Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand. Meanwhile, the BJP is wooing potential allies in Assam and other North-Eastern States. It believes that the North-East and the south are the the two areas where the party needs to strengthens its base the most. A section within the BJP also wants an alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National lok Dal.
In such a scenario, Mr Naidu is unable to make up his mind about which issues will affect him more — Telangana or the Muslim votes. The Jagan Reddy-Congress combine will be bad news for him. No wonder he is facing a Hobson’s choice.