The new Government that takes over from UPA2 will have its hands full. It has to deal with the growing Maoist threat and the belligerence of China and Pakistan. How it tackles the challenges depends on the extent of its political resolve
After a high voltage electioneering and opinion poll predictions, it almost seems certain that the UPA will not form the next Government. Despite the national priorities projected by various parties to allure the voters, let us consider what will be the challenges confronting the new Government in the immediate forseeable future.
Red corridor: This so-called region spanning parts of almost nine eastern States of the country is under varying threat of the Maoists. More than 4,800 people, including about 2,850 civilians, have been killed nationwide since 2008 in what Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called India’s biggest internal security threat. Ideologically, Maoists are against the idea of a democratic Indian state. Over the last one decade, the Maoist have kept on gaining ground and strength, while the Government has failed to bring much-needed systemic reforms in policing and create a unified approach to tackle this problem. Fact of the matter remains that our police forces and Central paramilitary forces are not capable to deal with this threat in their present form except a force like Greyhounds in Andhra Pradesh.
The Maoist threat to national integrity is even more than the one posed by some of our external enemies. It is not a mere law and order problem but a full-fledged war on the nation. The Maoists have been exploiting the poor adivasis to their own ends — for food, shelter, recruitment and intelligence. They know well that if the Government is able to provide them the basic amenities they would lose their relevance.
If India has to win the war against the Maoists, it has to make sure that its foot soldiers are competently officered, trained, motivated and properly equipped. The new Government will have to take the call before it is too late. A silver lining in the cloud is the large-scale participation of the people in the Assembly and general elections despite the boycott call by the Maoists. This initiative on the part of the people must be followed up by the Government with dynamic and innovative programmes, including, opening the talks with the Maoist hierarchy by the elected representatives of the people to bring them into the democratic process. Nepal is an example before us to emulate.
Strategic vulnerability: India is faced by nuclear-armed adversaries and has the capability to respond to any such threat. However, in the nuclear backdrop, conventional war in our context has an important relevance, and we have to be fully prepared for it. Our strategic vulnerability lies in the state of the Armed Forces for conventional war due to the lackadaisical attitude of the Government, archaic procurement procedures and scams. The Defence Research & Development Organisation has also not delivered as mandated as far as creating the indigenous technical base for critical conventional weapon systems is concerned. The DRDO needs to be re-organised. India requires a strong defence industrial base with high-end skill workers, for only then the Armed Forces could have sustained supplies of quality equipment. The policy to involve private industry and allow FDI in defence sector will be a step in the right direction. Under these circumstances, we need to look at the oft-quoted Israeli strategy, of hot pursuit and striking at the bases of militants in a pragmatic manner. Doctrines of ‘Cold start and Two-fronts war’ would also be required to be reevaluated. Will the new Government take on this challenge and accelerate the process of modernisationIJ
Threat from Pakistan: This will manifest in the form of intensified terrorism. lashkar-e-Tayyeba, reinforced by the battle-hardened Taliban; who would need some vocation after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, with the connivance of the ISI will intensify terror attacks in Jammu & Kashmir and elsewhere in the country. We may come to a stage of proxy war with Pakistan, which will like to re-kindle the Kashmir issue in the United Nations Security Council, and also raise it as a ‘human rights violation’. Even if the new Government wishes to alter the status quo of Article 370, it will vitiate the environment in the entire valley. As a worst case scenario, a proxy war with the activation of the line of Control and internal strife will be a very challenging situation.
The best way to thoroughly integrate the valley with the country is to root out deep-seated corruption and give the highest priority to development. Many Prime Ministers since Independence have announced various packages for this State, but those have made little difference, because all the subsidies and developmental grants have not reached the people and have lined the pockets of a large number of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats. Development in Jammu & Kashmir has to be corporatised with region-specific plans and time-bound targets. If the new Government has the will and sees this as a national priority, we will have won the battle.
Chinese threat: Notwithstan-ding the assurance given by the Chinese Vice Premier to Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh about the environment of peace and friendship towards the new Government, our triangular strategic partnership with Japan and the US is an anathema to China. It has been registering its protest against Malabar series of exercises of our Navy. It will have to be seen as to what Beijing’s reaction would be to India’s joint naval exercise with the Japanese Self-Defence Navy in Pacific Ocean later this year.
The People’s liberation Army may resort to Sumdorong Chu or Depsang-like incursion albeit at a much higher scale to teach India a lesson. We must be prepared for these contingencies but not be provocative in our actions. learning from the past we really have to be very patient while dealing with China.
A point to ponder: Will the people, whose aspirations have been re-charged during the election campaign, be prepared to face these challengesIJ Our new Government will have to address the ground realities and exhort the citizens of India to tighten their belt and be alive to the higher national imperatives. Vote-bank politics of the Governments in power at the Centre and States has virtually left the nation bankrupt.
Meanwhile, the mother of all challenges will be to restore the credibility of the Indian rupee in the world currency market.
(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army)