The impact of an unsettled West Asia on our energy supplies, along with the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in our immediate neighbourhood, are matters of grave concern. India must initiate rapid action to diversify its energy sources and develop alternative sources that will help reduce the dependence on imported foreign oil
On General Võ Nguyên Giáp’s death in October 2013, US Senator and former Vietnam war veteran John McCain wrote, “He beat us in war but never in battle”. This can truly be said for all wars that the US has been involved in subsequently. It was just about a decade back, in May 2003, that the then US President, George W Bush, gave his famous ‘mission accomplished’ speech on board the USS Abraham lincoln on the cessation of military action in Iraq.
As the present crisis in Iraq starkly brings out, he could not have been further from the truth. It is indeed ironic that neither the US nor its closest allies have the appetite today to go back in to stop the Islamist militants from establishing a larger and more strategic base in West Asia than the latter could have ever established in Afghanistan.
More so, since it is being established by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, a group that even the Al Qaeda is not willing to do business with because it considers them to be ‘too brutal’.One wonders what the families of the 5,000 soldiers who lost their lives in Iraq along with the thousands wounded there think of the situation and whether the sacrifice was really worth the cost.
Analysts are now suggesting that whatever military action the US might contemplate to stabilise the situation, the one thing that US President Barack Obama will not order is the deployment of troops on the ground there.
Obviously, air-strikes are unlikely to deter the ISIS. That can only be done by the people of Iraq and Syria, with the support of Iran and Saudi Arabia, if it is not to turn into a purely sectarian conflagration between the Shias and Sunnis that would last for years and change the face of West Asia as we know it.
Of interest is what long-term measures the US and its Western allies are likely to adopt in the region. One of the more likely options appears to be to strengthen the ‘islands of stability’ such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states with military and financial assistance, while putting in place assets that will be able to contain the Islamists in the ‘badlands’ through a range of counter-terror options, such as drone attacks and special forces employment.
While this option appears reasonable and logical, given the economic constraints the US faces and it may be the only workable one it has, it neither takes into account the support that the Islamists have among the local population nor the anger that exists against the ruling cliques.
In India’s context, the impact of a unsettled West Asia on energy supplies, along with the spread of Islamist fundamentalism in the immediate neighbourhood and a steady deterioration of Pakistan, are matters of grave concern. India will have initiate rapid action to diversify our energy sources and consider developing alternative sources that will help us to reduce dependence on Middle East’s oil to the extent possible.
In addition, New Delhi must seriously consider a joint Sino-Indian response to combat Islamist fundamentalism in the immediate region, as in the final analysis that is the battle we will have to win in the future, if we are to eventually win the war against terror.