That politics is an area of uncertainty, holds true for Bihar. The way both Nitish Kumar and lalu Prasad have started a political war in the State, it has put people in a situation akin to a frog placed in a pot of normal water and then left to die slowly with temperature being raised
Management classes often give this example to make a point: It is about frogs and water. When a frog is thrown into a pot of boiling water, it is shocked for a few moments and then jumps out of the boiling pot. The frog gets scaled, but survives. Now take the second scenario. Another frog is put in a container filled with normal water. The water is then boiled gradually. The frog gets accustomed to the rising temperature. First, the frog will sink into unconsciousness and then gradually boil to death, but it will never jump out of the pot.
The people of Bihar are like the second frog — getting accustomed to a worsening situation, but not rebelling into action. When Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief lalu Prasad ruled the State in the 1990s, the situation was like a frog thrown into a pot of boiling water. At that time, many people left the State and shifted to Delhi or elsewhere. Now, under the leadership of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and lalu Prasad, the State is in a situation when the frog is left in normal water and the pot is gradually made to boil. The fate of the people can be well understood here.
The release of lalu Prasad’s protégé, a former Member of Parliament, Mohammad Shahabuddin, who has been charged of heinous crimes including including murder, kidnapping and extortion, poses serious questions about the sushasan of Nitish Kumar. It seems lalu Prasad has once again started dominating the politics in Bihar. It is also being said that Nitish Kumar is becoming what former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was to the UPA. But before reaching a conclusion, we have to analyse a few political equations in the State.
The dominance of lalu Prasad and its silent counter by Nitish Kumar has raised serious questions about the future of the ‘grand alliance’. Nitish Kumar came with a very stringent law to regulate the sale of liquor in the State. It is widely propagated that the Chief Minister has fulfilled an important election promise he had made to the people of Bihar.
However, may are of the opinion that this move is targeted towards lalu Prasad. It is also said that most of the businessmen in the liquor trade are supporters of lalu Prasad. Therefore, people who are keeping close tab on Bihar politics suggest that, by curbing the sale of liquor, Nitish Kumar has tried to weaken the support base of his ‘big brother’. Sensing this, lalu Prasad opened his gambit on the political chess board. Some of his party MlAs opposed the stringent prohibition of the law, but the move did not yield any result. So, it seems, lalu Prasad has decided to move back to his Yadav and Muslim support base.
First, he showed his clout against controversial Janata Dal (United) MlA from Mokama, Anant Singh, and got him arrested, allegedly by putting pressure on the Government. Anant Singh was an accused in the murder of Putush Yadav. At that time, much noise was made against lalu Prasad’s move. But the RJD chief alleged that those opposed to his move had some secret agenda, that they were advocating the cause of the upper caste, and that they were ganged up against the downtrodden of society.
Now, some BJP leaders have alleged that Shahabuddin was released from jail due to lalu Prasad’s pressure. It is also alleged that under pressure from the RJD chief, the Bihar Government did not hire good advocates who could oppose Shahabuddin’s bail plea in the Patna High Court.
Also, after release from jail, Shahabuddin showered praise on lalu Prasad. When asked about Nitish Kumar, he vehemently and vociferously stated that Nitish was not his leader. He went a step ahead and said that Nitish Kumar became the Chief Minister due to circumstances prevailing at the time of the election. Shahabuddin stated that lalu Prasad was his leader and would remain so.
It is also a fact that when the grand alliance came to power under Nitish Kumar-lalu Yadav combine, crime rate in the State saw an upward movement. RJD MlA Rajballabh Yadav was booked for allegedly raping a minor in Bihar. During investigation of other crimes, many Yadav leaders or criminals were arrested.
Nitish Kumar did not come to defend them; rather the police cracked heavily on the criminals. lalu Prasad’s son and Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar, Tejashwi Yadav, was left to defend the Bihar Government over allegations of crime surge in the State. Message went out to the Yadav community that Nitish Kumar was calling the shots in the Government and lalu Prasad can’t defend his fellow castemen, who are traditionally the RJD’s solid vote-bank. After sensing this, lalu Prasad started asserting himself in the functioning of the Bihar Government.
When the grand alliance won the Bihar election, lalu Prasad had declared that Nitish Kumar would look after Bihar and he would take on the ‘growing menace’ of the RSS and the BJP in the country. But what has happened is just the opposite. Nitish Kumar is very often seen touring other States and lalu Prasad is managing the affairs of the State. So, the game of check and mate is in full swing in Bihar.
Meanwhile, lalu Prasad has started signalling to his voters that he is not weak and will take care of them. Many political pundits are of the opinion that Nitish Kumar is not like Manmohan Singh and has the political acumen to mould the situation .
Nitish Kumar is a politician who cannot afford to compromise on his image. The political grapevine doing the rounds in Bihar and in lutyens’ Delhi is that Nitish Kumar is exploring the possibility of joining hands with the BJP again. The recent bonhomie shown by Nitish Kumar during his meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to be seen in this light. It is often said about cricket and politics that both are games of uncertainty. Anything can happen at any moment. let’s keep our fingers crossed on Bihar.
(The writer is a senior TV journalist)