Even as infighting over party tickets is a big challenge for the AAP, the likely division of Muslim votes between the AAP and the recuperating Congress is set to benefit the BJP
As Delhi and NCR are going to polls on April 10 for the 16th lok Sabha, all eyes are on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had stolen the show in the December 4, 2013, Assembly election. As claims and counter-claims about Modi wave across India are doing the rounds, the moot point is AAP’s performance — will the one-election old party be able to repeat its spectacular feat this time amid reports of its support base fizzling outIJ
If we go by pre-poll surveys conducted by various media houses, AAP’s prospects are not rosy. In fact, speculation is rife that the AAP bubble will burst in the parliamentary elections.
As per the latest survey conducted by IBN7-CSDS, Delhi is no more in the grip of AAP fever that had helped Arvind Kejriwal’s party to bag 28 Assembly seats, demolishing the Sheila Dikshit’s fiefdom after 15 long years of the Congress rule. According to the survey, of the seven lok Sabha seats in Delhi, the BJP is comfortable on 3-4 seats. While the AAP has been projected to win 2-3 seats, the Congress is likely to capture maximum one seat. The survey got mixed reactions from the aam aadmi of Delhi regarding their satisfaction level with the AAP politics. Around 47 per cent respondents expressed their unhappiness with the AAP for quitting power after 49 days over alleged opposition to the Jan lokpal Bill in the Assembly. However, 34 per cent supported the party’s decision.
The AAP is fighting a tough battle to keep its flock together. As it is contesting about 400 seats across the country, the concentration of AAP leaders are sparse. Unlike last time when its diehard supporters had reached Delhi from other parts of India to raise AAP’s voice, this time it is conspicuously missing. Also, disgruntlement in the party is reported to have reached a new high after many people who had joined the party to resurrect their political career were denied tickets.
AAP candidates Ashutosh from Chandni Chowk, Ashish Khetan from New Delhi, Jarnail Singh from West Delhi, Raj Mohan Gandhi from East Delhi, and MlA Rakhi Birla from North-West Delhi seats are facing tough fight.
In East Delhi, sitting MP Sandeep Dikshit is running an effective door-to-door campaign. With full backing from Okhla MlA Asif Md Khan, who had got more than 50,000 votes in the Assembly election, chances are that Dikshit may be able to retain Muslim support from Jamia Nagar. Till now AAP candidate Raj Mohan Gandhi has failed to make inroads into Muslim votes, even though they seem to be inclining towards the AAP. But the likely division of Muslim votes in the locality will only benefit BJP’s Mahesh Giri.
In New Delhi, Ajay Maken of the Congress is confident of retaining his seat. The AAP is not in the picture as the fight is between him and BJP’s Meenakshi lekhi. Union Telecom Minister Kapil Sibal is seeking third term from Chandni Chowk seat but he is facing a tough fight with AAP’s Ashutosh and Delhi BJP chief Harsh Vardhan. In this constituency, the deciding factor will be Muslim votes. Two Assembly seats in the constituency, Ballimaran and Matia Mahal, have a huge Muslim population, who after the emergence of the AAP are silently drifting towards the party. If Ashutosh is able to ensure their full backing then he may sail through, otherwise Harsh Vardhan’s chance is bright.
In West Delhi, BJP’s Parvesh Verma is claiming that the contest is between him and Sajjan Kumar’s younger brother Ramesh Kumar of the Congress. “Shoe thrower” journalist Jarnail Singh of the AAP is in the race, but he is out of the reckoning.
In the proverbial David vs Goliath battle, it appears that the AAP is losing the plot to the BJP. And with the Congress recovering from the Assembly polls drubbing, it is a Herculean task for the AAP to retain its existing vote share.
Even if the opinion polls are taken with a pinch of salt after a TV news channel allegedly exposed 11 agencies showing them to be eager to tweak their findings, the tide could be reversed only if the AAP succeeds in encouraging its voters and followers in the next three days. But considering the paucity of time and resources, it is a formidable challenge for the AAP.
(The author is editor of okhlatimes.com, an e-initiative to empower marginalised through digital inclusion and strengthening local governance)