In a political climate beset with escalating intra-party ill-will, it is doubtful whether the BJP, under the sole vanguard of Narendra Modi, will reach the magic mark of 272 in the 16th lok Sabha
The swift development that ensued internal bickering in the BJP on the heels of the declaration of the 16th lok Sabha election demolished the much publicised claim that the BJP is an orderly and well-disciplined unit committed to a “distinct” ideology. The old guard that established and nurtured the organisation and created a niche on the horizons of federal political scenario, today, appears to be spent force.
Throughout the process of its growth, the BJP leadership was conscious of the need to maintain a delicate balance between the designs and commands of the RSS bosses on the one hand, and the compulsions of a secular polity and coalition obligations, on the other. The success story of the Vajpayee government and his popular acceptability as a sensible person in an unfit company is to be understood in this perspective. Vajpayee’s towering personality, public stature and leadership skills momentarily silenced many a formidable detractor and this helped Atalji not only to keep the organisation intact and united, but also provided him with ample elbow room to pursue a pragmatic domestic as well as foreign policy, including his famous initiative to establish a relationship of cordiality between India and Pakistan.
Although lK Advani’s 1990 rathyatra — starting from Somnath, Gujarat, and scheduled for Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh — helped his party in improving its political fortunes, nevertheless, at the same time the adventure also sowed the seeds of communal malice, thus shattering India’s accommodative, tolerant and synthetic cultural edifice so painstakingly weaved bit by bit over centuries. Fortunately, despite his obsession with rhetoric like ‘pseudo-secularism’ and ‘minorityism’, reason seems to have dawned on Advani; consequently, instead of repeating the bizarre Ayodhya experiment he chose to champion the cause of anti-corruption — an issue of wider concern that cut across communities. In this context, it is worth recalling Advani’s “arrest me as well” challenge on the floor of Parliament during the lokpal debate and his eloquent declaration to launch a nationwide rathyatra against corruption.
Equally significant is the fact that both former party presidents late Bangaru laxman and Nitin Gadkari, soon after taking charge of the party, held out an olive branch indicating their desire to create space for Muslims, Dalits and other minorities. However, what really deterred them from completing the virtuous task remains a mystery till date. Curiously enough, even the incumbent party president, Rajnath Singh, minced no words in expressing his desire to seek apology for the 2002 holocaust in Gujarat although Narendra Modi and his new found lieutenant, Arun Jaitley, remained adamant citing the SIT ‘exoneration’.
A complete U-turn from the looming attitudinal transformation and a total reversal of the moderating mood in the party organisation occurred with the miraculous preeminence and hegemony acquired by Narendra Modi in the organisational affairs. It is widely, and perhaps rightly, perceived that the party’s behind-the-scenes philosophical masters have now come into the open to appropriate the organisation in order to exercise their direct control not only on the party affairs but also on federal governance. As such, speculation became rife about the main contest in the 16th lok Sabha election is going to be broadly between the RSS (represented through the naqli BJP in Jaswant Singh’s phraseology) and the rest. Sonia Gandhi’s assessment that secularism vs communalism remains the main electoral plank in 2014 is to be understood against this backdrop.
Narendra Modi, in his euphoria to head the federal apex in 2014, has not only personalised power in the party but also personalised the organisation per se. The gradual and steady marginalisation of tall leaders of the party such as lK Advani, Jaswant Singh, Sushma Swaraj, and the like who of late recognised and convinced that only a modest approach in governance is a workable strategy in a composite social order like ours, is signal enough of the overbearing influence of RSS lords on the party through Modi. Jaswant Singh’s differentiation of the asli (real) BJP and naqli (fake) BJP makes sense in this specific context.
The regular stories of the recruitment of controversial, unscrupulous and tainted elements into the party fold without paying heed to the advice of the senior leadership, compromising on the organisational principles, only explains the desperation of the new leadership to ascend a new height of power. Advani’s annoyance, Jaswant’s tears, Sushma’s clamours, Yeshwant’s apathy or Mukhtar’s cry all signal the growing anger, unrest and unease with the functioning of the BJP.
In a political climate beset with escalating intra-party ill-will and alienation of key coalitional partners, can the BJP, under the sole vanguard of Narendra Modi, reach the magic mark of 272 in the 16th lok SabhaIJ In the very likely event of the BJP not reaching 272 on its own, are Modi and his RSS patrons in a position to work out a consensus in Modi’s favour in the possible new NDA conglomerate that may include astute political actors like Chandrababu Naidu or sympathisers like Mehbooba MuftiIJ The answer, indeed, is a clear no. In such an eventuality who will emerge as a dark horse to enter 7 Race Course RoadIJ Though there is definite possibility of a rat race among the many aspirants in the party, nevertheless, given the nature of emerging dynamics of factionalism in the party, it is more likely that the consensus may evolve in favour of Rajnath Singh.
looking at Narendra Modi’s seemingly unprepared election demagogy, usually devoid of substance and evidence, that regularly creates one or the other controversy, coupled with his focus on personal attacks and emphasis on shoddy jibes, it may perhaps be a big achievement if the Modi-led BJP crosses even the 170 mark in the ensuing lok Sabha. It is worth noting here that even during the illustrious leadership of Vajpayee-Advani combine, the party could not surge beyond 182 seats.
Although the return of Congress-led UPA in 2014 is a distant dream, nonetheless, the possibility of the Congress playing a significant role in seeing a federal/third front materialise in order to keep the Modi-led BJP at bay cannot be ruled out. Moreover, regional groups such as JD(U), BJD, AIADMK, TMC, BSP, YSR Congress, even SP and TRS are formidable forces in their respective segments and they are keeping their options open and keen to form a non-BJP and non-Congress alternative or support one or the other large party led coalition.
Caught in the vortex of scams, the UPA-2 left a congenial political space for any pragmatic force to occupy it. Kejriwal’s nascent outfit, Aam Aadmi Party, aptly seized the opportunity in Delhi while Modi’s BJP was complacently lost in the so-called Modi wave. Indeed it was a big miscalculation on the part of the BJP to declare its prime ministerial candidate much before embarking on the actual electoral battle, which not only generated heartburn in the upper echelons of the organisation but also invited criticism from various quarters for not observing the basic ethics of parliamentary democracy. lamentably, in its desperation to Modi-fy the election campaign, the party failed to present the electors even with a manifesto that forms an essential component of electoral politics, specially in a multi-party democracy like ours, before the election. Incidentally, it is expected on the day India will go for first phase of elections.
It is a pity that neither Modi nor his mentors outside the party are prepared to accept that to secure a place in the pantheon of 21st century secular-democratic politics, their party requires to exorcise itself of the demon of divisiveness and alter its sectarian approach in order to look at things in a frame of social solidarity, recognising human rights and distributive justice as the guiding ideals.
(Prof M Mujtaba Khan is Director, Academic Staff College, Jamia Millia Islamia. Views expressed here are his own)