The controversial Communal Violence Bill was seen as a viable solution to stop Modi's march to Delhi. But if the 4-0 drubbing in the four Assembly elections is any indication, backward communities and minorities do not see the Congress as their only saviour
A Home Ministry report presented to the National Integration Council this year suggests that there has been a decline in cases of communal violence this year. These figures certainly do not undermine the threat of communalism, but do indicate that there is no alarming situation in the country to turn the entire political discourse around a subject that is so divisive.
The renewed effort of the Home Ministry to push through the Prevention of Communal and Targeted Violence (Access to Justice and Reparations) Bill, 2013, in Parliament certainly has more than what meets the eye.
The move comes a few months ahead of the lok Sabha election. If the recent trends in Assembly elections, held in four major States, are any indication, the Congress is staring one of the worst defeat in the face.
The Communal Violence (Prevention, Control and Rehabilitation of Victims) Bill, 2005 — which provided for (a) prevention and control of communal violence, (b) speedy investigation and trials, and (c) rehabilitation of victims — was first introduced in the Rajya Sabha in December, 2005, but it has been hanging fire since then.
Several abortive attempts were made between 2007 and 2010 to bring the proposed legislation for passage in the Upper House. It was in the year before the 2012 Gujarat Assembly election that Sonia Gandhi headed National Advisory Committee redrafted the Bill and sent it to the Home Ministry for its consideration.
The draft Bill, which threatened to infringe upon the rights State Governments have in a federal politics likes ours, evoked a strong reaction and the Home Ministry reworked on the draft. The re-drafted Bill was sent to the State Governments for their comments.
The urgency shown by the Centre to push through the controversial Bill was clearly felt after the rise of Narendra Modi as the prime ministerial candidate of the principal Opposition party. The subsequent decision by BJP's ally Nitish Kumar (JD-U) to part ways with the BJP over Modi's elevation stirred up the excitement in the Congress, which banks heavily on the ghost of 2002 post-Godhra riots to scare away possible partners of the BJP.
However in private, Congress leaders admit that something is wrong in the party and also in the government which will stop their march for 2014. The weight of severe economic crisis, corruption and acute inflation is so heavy that even Congress leaders admit the 10-year-rule has lost all its sheen.
Politically, the inflation and economic crisis have alienated the Congress from the aam aadmi and a sense of dejection seems to have settled in the India Inc for whom Manmohan Singh was a darling all these years.
In most of the States, Congress social engineering failed to yield the kind of electoral dividends party strategists at 24 Akbar Road had been expecting. Socially backward communities do not see the Congress as their only hope and minority votes has several claimants.
A cursory look at the 2009 lok Sabha election results reveals the serious predicament that the Congress could face in the coming lok Sabha election. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Assam and Andhra Pradesh alone accounted for 94 out of 206 seats that the Congress had won in the 2009 general election. As many as 31 more seats came from Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal where the Congress was in alliance with powerful regional players. Put together, these States contributed 125 lok Sabha seats to the Congress' final tally of 206.
The just concluded Rajasthan Assembly election was manifestation of the anti-Congress wave that is blowing in the desert State. Had the Congress' tally been two seats less, Rajasthan would not have had a recognised Opposition.
Congress' failure to capitalise on the 2009 gain in Uttar Pradesh was well reflected in the 2012 Assembly election results, where the Congress could not win even one Assembly seats in the lok Sabha constituencies of party president Sonia Gandhi and its vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
Similarly, the rise of Jagan Reddy (YSR Congress Party) has ripped apart the Congress in Andhra Pradesh, and the Telangana imbroglio has rubbed salt into the Congress' wounds.
Over a period of time since 2009, the Congress has lost allies like the Trinamool Congress and the DMK in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu respectively. Congress' Maharashtra ally Sharad Pawar is equally worried about sharing anti-incumbency wave against the Congress and is not leaving any opportunity to hit out at the 'weak leadership' both in the Congress and the Government.
A presentation by Home Ministry officials to a parliamentary standing committee suggests that there are more than 120 lok Sabha seats where electoral outcomes are decided by “minority” votes.
The Muslims are in majority in lakshadweep and Jammu & Kashmir. The percentage of Muslims is sizeable in Assam (30.9%), West Bengal (25.2%), Kerala (24.7%), Uttar Pradesh (18.5%) and Bihar (16.5%). Uttar Pradesh and Bihar alone account for 120 seats and not less than 40 seats in these two States have strong Muslim population.
The popularity of Narendra Modi across north India, especially in the Hindi belt, has been giving jitters to the Congress. Modi's equally strong fan following among the middle class could be detrimental to the Congress in the next election.
The best solution — to avoid the imminent debacle in the coming election — that the Congress is zeroing in on is to stop Modi's Delhi march by scaring potential allies of the NDA by creating a phobia that aligning with Modi could cost them “minority” votes. The aim is to corner maximum votes from the Muslim community by driving home the point that the UPA is their lone saviour.
But it is perhaps too late for the Congress. The just concluded Assembly elections also do not offer a hope for the Congress. Almost every Muslim candidates of the Congress lost to their BJP rivals in the Rajasthan Assembly election. Some even forfeited their deposit. Moreover, at least 10 BJP candidates in Madhya Pradesh have won from constituencies having the strong presence of minority population.
The writing on the wall is becoming clearer with each passing day — Congress’ sinister design to create phobia about the BJP and Modi has been exposed and the existing takers are on the wane.
(The writer is Special Correspondent, The Pioneer)