The run-off between Dr Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani is due to enter into second round, subsequent to successful completion of first round. Afghanistan passes through numerous problems, uncertain political circumstance and unstable security condition stand to be the most immediate problems, pleading prior attention.
The incoming government has a task cut out to drag out the country from the problems. Putting cognitive abilities into practice the outgoing political leadership could reduce the size of problems if it couldn’t eradicate them. Nevertheless, the opportunities and compensation time extended were wasted, consequently nothing out of boundless opportunities of time are achieved.
The degree of uncertainty, concerning the future of Afghanistan, subsequent to non-ratification of BSA widened, melted the reliance of ordinary masses including business persons, investors, non-public organisations, educationalists, industrialists and people from different walks of life, on the forthcoming dismal circumstances. The delayed if not denied fate of BSA, is one of the underlying reasons behind the sustenance of status quo, which didn’t practically serve the interest of Afghanistan.
The intensity of suspicion over irreversibility of ongoing situation entailing diverse security, political and economic troubles multiplied with every advancing day, eroded the confidence of both foreigners and locals equal to the maximum degree; consequently huge off-putting impact is inflicted on socio-economic uplift of the country. Consequently, an economic downfall was evidently witnessed that quaked Afghans financial gains.
Indisputably, Afghan National Army (ANA) is underdeveloped and direly needs training, assistance, advice and equipment. The BSA allows US military trainers and counterterrorism forces to remain in Afghanistan after the last American combat troops leave the country by December this year. This will ensure both political stability and improved security, given the insurgents and non-democratic forces trying to destabilise the system, are kept at bay. The Taliban is dreaming to oust the government after the withdrawal of the US forces.
Formerly, the ministers of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) met urging the need to continue supporting afghan forces. Though NATO has demonstrated full commitment and resolute stance to support their mission in Afghanistan, which will focus on training, advice and assistance to the Afghan security forces beyond the deadline for complete withdrawal, yet the government has not displayed its political vision, undoing progression towards political isolation. Afghanistan passes through critical states; the battered relationship with eastern and western world may not be deemed as a compliant and desirable legacy. Some of NATO countries eager to contribute in rebuilding Afghanistan aren’t pleased with ongoing stalemate for security deal, which in turn erodes their resolve to contribute.
Subsequent to Taliban regime toppled, US and allies are persistently supporting Afghanistan in every walk of human endeavor, be that socioeconomic development, political stability or combating remnants of al-Qaeda and Taliban. In the line of duty large number of US combat forces died. The Department of Defense has identified 2,302 American service members have died as a part of the Afghan war and related operations. Undeniably the US played an immense role in strengthening democratic institutions in Afghanistan; in doing so broader enduring strategic partnership agreement was signed between Afghanistan and the US. In light of the said agreement the status of security forces had to be enforced with Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that grants them certain safeguards.
The US and NATO allies are due to leave Afghanistan by the end of year 2014 while the BSA remained unsigned. Inevitably, a considerable number of residual forces should be kept behind for the continuation of “assist, advice and train” mission of Afghan armies. Consequently, the US stipulated the retention of US residual forces to the signature of the BSA. Earlier the US asserted to go for “zero option” if the BSA isn’t duly signed by corresponding authority in the Kabul. Nevertheless, the BSA accord is subjected to indefinite delay, by the outgoing president, who referred the fate of the BSA to the incoming President.
This very stance of the Karzai government raised several ambiguities to the fate of US-Afghanistan relationship. Reportedly the relationship between the Obama administration and the Karzai government suffers high degree of strain. White House has repeatedly warned of complete drawdown, if the BSA was singed. Conversely the US Senators don’t conform to this decision of the Obama administration. However, there is grave reservation found on this very unfavorable stance of the Obama Administration. Majority in the US Congress turn down the idea to complete withdrawal, fearing Afghanistan may witness civil war.
Formerly the US senators warned the Obama Administration against leaving a fewer number of troops in Afghanistan beyond this year would be a fatal mistake.
The reason behind the underlined concerns is the lesson of Iraq, where reportedly the remnant of al-Qaeda has turned unbeatable after Iraq turned down signing a similar accord. The White House might have learned “a lesson from Iraq,” where all US troops were pulled after Iraq failed to sign a bilateral security agreement. This resulted, in tragic, the rise of violence, and growing risk of renewed sectarian conflict and resurrection of terrorists. The US Senators caution that fatal mistake in Iraq must not be repeated in Afghanistan.
Given the Karzai government repudiated to sign BSA, the US Senators expressed a needed willingness to rely on the upcoming administration that is likely to sign the BSA. Both leading runners Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai expressed willingness to renew their working relationship with the US depicts the BSA is likely to be singed by the upcoming administration. The finalisation of the status of the BSA will render to be the prior most challenge for forthcoming premier that will put his leadership capability at test.
(Asmatyari writes for Daily Outlook Afghanistan, the first English newspaper of Afghanistan)