The election will see two political heavyweights, Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar, battle it out on the good governance platform
The Bihar poll bugle has been sounded and the players are getting active. The Assembly poll, scheduled this October, will be unique in the sense that it is a fight between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Normally, Assembly polls are fought on local issues and on the charisma of the local leaders. But this time, it is a clash not about issues but about personalities.
Unlike the Delhi election, where the BJP was shying away from a Kejriwalversus Modi fight, there is no hesitance in Bihar. Both the camps are trying to sell their brands. It will be Modi versus Nitish. Mr Modi will also take on Rashtriya Janata Dal chief lalu Prasad. All three leaders are great communicators and have a direct approach to the people. The result will be a clash of the titans, using all the weapons in their armor.
There is no doubt that Bihar is crucial for all the players — big and small. It’s a do-or-die battle for the ruling Janata Dal (United), its combine RJD and the Congress. The Congress is raising its head after its humiliating defeat in the 2014 lok Sabha poll. It is riding on the back of the JD(U). Also, the ensuing poll will be lalu Prasad’s last chance to regain lost ground.
The Yadavs along with the Muslims are credited with creating a social revolution that enabled lalu Prasad to rule the State for 15 years. He also occupied the main oppositional space over the past decade.
It is crucial for the BJP to prove that the Modi magic is still working and that the humiliating defeat in the Delhi Assembly election was just an aberration. If the BJP loses the Bihar election, the odds will be against it in other poll-bound States like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.
Both the sides have chalked out their high profile poll strategy. Above other considerations, the central theme is Mr Modi’s good governance vs Mr Nitish Kumar’s sushasan. Caste is invoked at village chaupal-level meetings. At the same time, there is a micro-level subtle campaign for reverse polarisation perhaps with a hope that if the 1.2 crore Muslims support the JD(U) combine, the BJP can hope to get the support of the five crore plus Hindus on the other side.
learning a lesson from the projection of former IPS officer and social activist Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate in Delhi, the BJP has tactically decided not to project any chief ministerial face for Bihar. While Bihar BJP leader Sushil Modi is a front-runner, the BJP leadership has decided that projection of a chief ministerial candidate would disturb the social equation. Above all, there is not a single local BJP leader who can match the stature of Mr Kumar. Therefore, it has to be a Nitish versus Modi fight.
Mr Nitish Kumar wants to run a campaign based on Bihari pride and his development record. There is no doubt that the campaign is not only going to be negative but also ugly and personal. For instance, Mr Nitish Kumar is trying to turn Mr Modi’s assault against him as an assault on the Bihari pride. “The Prime Minister said there is a problem in my DNA. I’m a son of Bihar, so it is the same DNA as the people of Bihar... I leave it to the people of Bihar how they judge a person who maligns their DNA,” he tweeted.
While the Bihar Chief Minister is busy creating his brand, he is trying to do a Modi-on-Modi. Ironically, Mr Nitish Kumar was riding a high-tech poll campaign on social media and also called the Modi Government a ‘Twitter Government’. The Chief Minister has also launched attractive slogans like badh chala bihar, parcha par charcha, and har ghar dastak campaign seeking phir ek bar Nitish Kumar. What is important for Mr Kumar is to have a sincere alliance with the RJD and the Congress to keep his votes are in tact.
The BJP is banking on a few factors. The first is to scare the public against lalu Prasad’s jungle raj. The second is to send a message about Mr Nitish Kumar’s opportunistic alliance with the RJD. Third, the Yadavs and the Muslims comprise one-third of the electorate might, and remain with the JD(U) combine. Dividing the votes of the alliance is imperative. Former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi is important for the BJP to wean away the Mahadalit votes. Fourth, the BJP is also hoping that the alliance might not work and the infighting, especially at a time of ticket distribution, will help its cause. Above all, Mr Modi has also promised a mega package of more than Rs50,000 crore for Bihar to lure the voters.